legaleagle_45
Silver Member
As the study explains:
A few plausible mechanisms can be posited by which possession of a gun increases an individual's risk of gun assault. A gun may falsely empower its possessor to overreact, instigating and losing otherwise tractable conflicts with similarly armed persons. Along the same lines, individuals who are in possession of a gun may increase their risk of gun assault by entering dangerous environments that they would have normally avoided.5860 Alternatively, an individual may bring a gun to an otherwise gun-free conflict only to have that gun wrested away and turned on them. ("58-60" refers to three of the 67 references cited).
Hi Pogo. It is extremely difficult to address all of the Myths and supporting documentation in this forum, however, most of them are based upon bogus studies funded primarily by the Joyce Foundation. The Branas study is a particularly virulent one which was produced specifically to be used in the SCOTUS case of McDonald vs Chicago. It was intentionally published so that Amicus for Chicago could use it while, Amicus for McDonald could not refute it... and there was plenty to be refuted.
First, in order to boost their numbers, the Branas study included as persons carrying a weapon those that were within 1/4 mile of their home or vehicle if said home or vehicle contained a gun.
Second and perhaps most important, 53% of the subjects who were shot or killed while carrying had criminal records. This subgroup of society is itself 22 times more likely to be shot or killed. This is inflation of probability by the inclusion of a high risk sub group. Another example... Did you know that people who rent homes are 4.4 times more likely to be a victim of a homicide than persons who own homes? This is not because renting a home "causes" homicides, but persons who rent generally include a much large sub group of poor people. Poor people are much more likely to be victims of homicides. One more... Did you know that you are much more likely to die in a hospital than almost anywhere else? I think you would readily discern that very sick people go to the hospital more often and that very sick people tend to die at a greater rate.
The study failed to account for what is known as linked correlation where a single factor will be causative of two distinct conditions. The fact is people who are at a high risk of being shot or killed are much more likely to carry a weapon precisely for that reason. One must be able to discern cause vs effect and distinguish it from effect vs cause. This is something the Branas study failed to do. It is now considered "junk science" .
This is a problem with studies on both sides of the issue. They are generally funded by entities with a partisan agenda and surprise, surprise, surprise... they invariably tend to support the political agenda of the persons or entities funding the study.