Andylusion
Platinum Member
- Jan 23, 2014
- 21,320
- 6,434
What? Wasn't 1993 total Federal spending $1.9 Trillion? Today it's $4 Trillion.
Oh boy..alright here we go:
A dollar in 1993 is not a dollar in 2016. So basic rules of economic discussion are that you at very least adjust for inflation (real$).
$1.9T in 1993 is about $3.16T in 2016 dollars (CPI Inflation Calculator)
This is 2015 spending
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Note that half of the spending is SS and healthcare - which happen to be effected by our aging demographics.
To say we can "simply go back to 90s spending" is to not understand this - we aren't spending on same population.
But of course if you want to have really good manners you would also adjust for size of economy (%GDP):
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Which again, shows only modest increase.
Why would you assume I was using non-inflation adjusted dollars?
In non-inflation adjusted dollars, the 1993 budget was only $1.4 Trillion.
In fact, in 1999 the total budget was only $1.7 Trillion.
Your $3.6 Trillion number, is taking an inflation adjusted number, and adjusting it again.
Stop being crazy. lol
Ok how much is 1.4T 1993 adjusted for inflation? it is not 1.9T, niether was the last year budget 4T
And you skipped entirely addressing the standard %ofGDP measure and the fact of aging population.
The 2016 projected budget is $3.999 Trillion. Unless you think rounding up $1 Billion is too much an exaggeration, the point stands.
Beyond that, inflation adjusted numbers fluctuate a ton unfortunately. You can get different numbers all over the place. It also depends on which metric you use, and what reliable numbers of government spending you have. If you go by what the government officially claims to have spent, then I have found $1.7 Trillion, to $2.4 Trillion. I would guess it's between the two estimates.
Regardless, in broad generalities, we're spending about double what we were in 1993. Especially when you consider that we are actually spending less on interest payments today, than we did in the 1990s, when you account for inflation.
Now as for aging population, and measuring it as a % of GDP.
So what? That has nothing to do with his comment.
But if you want to talk about it, ok. It doesn't matter in my opinion. Yes, there are dozens of so-called experts, who can't even balance their own check books, and come up with hundreds of ways to claim that based on this measurement and that measurement, and this statistical crap, then such and such debt is perfectly fine and acceptable.
All of those measurements are based on one flawed assumption... that GDP will always go up. But we know that it doesn't always go up.
Greece in 2005 to 2006 had a debt to GDP ratio of 100% to 106%. We're at 104% as of last year. And while all the excuse making left-winger economists have dismissed the Greek example after the crash, before the crash, the same left-wingers were claiming that over a 100% debt to GDP is nothing, and completely unimportant. See what happened, wasn't that Greece borrowed nearly 100% of their total GDP in 1 year. What happened was that the recession was massive, and the GDP of the country shrank, causing the debt to GDP ratio to go to 175%. Then the left-wingers say "We never said 175% of GDP was ok!, it's not our fault!"
Well tell that to Greece now. Tell that to Argentina. And Zimbabwe and Ecuador, and Venezuela, and the list goes on of countries that had a fraction of the debt to GDP we do, and still had catastrophic failures.
Tell that to the UK which had a bond failure. Or even Italy right now, is in some troubles.
The point though, is that you don't know when another recession will hit. You borrow trillions today, and say "oh well it's still only 100% of GDP".... until the GDP shrinks by 20%, and then you have a ton of debt you can't pay back.
And fool yourself with this idiocy about how interest rates have fallen, so it's cheaper to borrow. Yeah, that's true. And if anything, that should be a warning. The interest rates on nearly all government debt typically falls before the whole system crashes, and interest rates go crazy.
In 2006 to July 2008, interest rates on Greek 2-year bonds were 4.5% to 4.9%. By Dec 2009, they fell to 4%. By July 2009 they fell to 1.7%, and by 2010, were only 3%. Interest rates fell before the crash. This is to be expected if you think about it logically.
When the economy goes bad, what do the vast majority of investors do? They take their money out of stocks, and other assets, and buy "safe securities", which generally means government bonds. As more people buy bonds, the interest rates drop.
But then when they see the booming government debt, and the drop in tax revenue to pay that debt.... a switch is flipped where government bonds are no longer considered safe, then interest rates go crazy.
So at the onset of the economic trouble, borrowing interest rates will fall. Then when people realize their safe investment, isn't as safe as they thought, interest rates went from 12% to 127% in 12 months.
At this point, the United States has followed the exact same path, to the letter.
Now that we have boasted our debt levels to that of Greece, all we need is a massive recession, and just one failure in the bond market, and we can have this country is a Greek crisis. It won't be Social Security sending out reduced checks, it will be lucky if you have a check.
As much as the pseudo economists run around complaining how the banks are all interconnected, and we can have this domino chain of failures.... in reality it's the government that has this problem.
Many of the Federal bonds are owned by other Federal agencies. Some the Federal reserve banks, and other Federal programs and agencies.
Others are owned by Trust funds and endowments. Still another large portion are owned by state governments, and even city governments.
On top of this, hundreds of programs are joint funded. This includes even the cheapest of mass transit, such as city bus service, is funded in part by Federal programs. For example FEMA. FEMA owns almost nothing. They coordinate with States that fund disaster relief. Without states paying for FEMA supplies, there would be no FEMA. Similarly, most States rely on Federal funding for Food Stamps, Welfare, and many other programs.
Point being, because all the government rely so heavily on each others, and all of them rely on borrowing, it's simply a matter of time before there is a critical failure. One failure would lead to another, as the debts of one, failed to pay off, the debts of another would fail. The entire system of inter-connected dominos could, spill across the country.