- Banned
- #761
Wow! 243,000 New Jobs Created in January | The Economic Populist
First, ever since the credit crisis of 2008, there has been a trend in the unemployment report that shows a declining participation rate in the job market. While a whopping number of jobs were created in January, a far larger number of people left the labor force - 1,752,000 in fact. The percent of the total working population who did not have jobs rose to 36.7%, an all time high. Its no wonder the unemployment rate fell, when the denominator shrinks so markedly. The total number of people employed fell by 737,000. So what do you want to celebrate the 243,000 who got jobs, or the million or so people who dropped by the wayside and are no longer counted in the data?
It makes you wonder how much faith you can put in the Labor Department reports. For example, the government, the business press, and Wall Street rarely report on the fundamental ways in which the US labor market is changing, with so many people dropping out of the work force. The press has had a hard enough time getting to grips with the Labor Departments Birth/Death model, which over time adds to the number of people reported as employed. The model is supposed to compensate for the inability of the government to get good information on the number of new businesses created every month and which presumably add to employment. The problem is the model has been shown in the past to have significantly overestimated the number of jobs created by new businesses. Economists still dont know if the model is appropriate, and how much of the 243,000 jobs created this month are the result of the Birth/Death model.
The other odd thing about the January report is that it does not coincide with most other evidence about the US labor market. There have been tens of thousands of high paying jobs lost in recent months on Wall Street. American Airlines just announced it is cutting 14,000 employees this year. Challenger, Gray and Christmas, an executive outplacement firm that does job surveys, reported that this January job layoffs increased by 28%. The Gallup survey on business employment indicated a rise in unemployment at the start of this year.
Wow. But Is the Number Real? - NYTimes.com
The Labor Department estimated on Friday that the economy gained 243,000 jobs.
The department also estimated that the economy lost 2,689,000 jobs in the month.
Proving once again that there are lies, damned lies and statistics....
That statistic is a complete fallacy.
They only exist because the new population numbers from the Census were taken into account.
Which means that those numbers always existed, they just hadn't been counted, the employed as well as the unemployed.
And the ratios are the same.