martybegan
Diamond Member
- Apr 5, 2010
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Your first sentence is much more on the mark than you realize, for Crimeans are linguistically and culturally much more "Russian" then they are "Ukrainian". There was bad blood in the Crimea the moment the UDSSR fell apart and Crimea fell (mostly) under ukranian jurisdiction, so to speak. Actually, the Crimea is an "autonomous parliamentary Republic" within the Ukraine, but being an island/peninsula, is pretty reliant on the Ukraine for most of it's trade. 58% of Crimeans are Russians. Lots of other minorities there, including Tartars. Readers Digest version: lots of bad blood between Tartars and Ukrainians, goes back a long time, the UDSSR, when it was in existence, kept a lid on the hatred, but as happened in the former Yugoslavia, when the pressure of a dictatorship fell away, the old hatreds resurfaced.
But the second sentence of yours I strongly disagree with and @dboop is right for having made this thread. The sanctions are going to be much tougher that you can imagine for one word:
GAZPROM
The sanctions will kill exports of oil, the revenues for which Russia will need. And this time of year is a good time to do is, as the winter is receding. So, what the Obama administration is doing is indeed a big deal and already the Obama administration has done more in this crisis than the Bush administration did in Georgia, in spite of the fact that the Georgian (N. Ossetia) invasion was much larger in scale than what is going on right now. This is also the first time that a US Aircraft Carrier has been allowed into the Black Sea, by permission of the Turks. Bush did not attempt this is 2008, although, in his defense, it probably would not have done much good.
It's time for Righties here to realize that the current administration still has much smarter people working in the state Department than they want to admit. Most of those people work from administration to administration and they know the lay of the land.
No matter what we do, Crimea is now going to rejoin Russia. This may or may not start a war with the Ukraine. I doubt it will. The Ukraine has too many internal problems to solve first and the almost nazi-like group from one party will probably be glad that the tartars are no longer on "their" soil, in spite of the fact that they lose soil to acheive their goal.
How do sanctions against personal assets within the US sphere of economic influnce kill GAZPROM sales to Europe?
Just wait. You'll see.
So what you are saying is you really don't have a clue how this will actually hurt Russia's energy sales.