What are the chances of the Senate flipping in 2016?

[kaz]

Again, yes, Republicans have to win more, but they are fighting largely Republican incumbents in Red States. I know the left loves fly by analysis, but you actually have to analyze deeper than 24 States. Which specific seats are you assuming?

When did I say it was "locked up?" The chances look really good though. Especially because it's a general, and not midterm, election.

I'm not assuming ANY seats btw. But 5 of 24? I like those odds.

You're right, I re-read the post and you said 9/10 Democrat seats are "locked up," you didn't say taking the Senate was.

Here's the thing. As you said, 9/10 Democrat seats are secure. Think about those odds. Now think about that only 3 of the Republicans are in Blue States. What does that tell you? Anything? So if you flip all three, hold Reid and take toss up Florida with Rubio running for the White House, where are you getting the rest of the seats?

 

[Kondor3]

The Senate will flip, but the bigots of the south will hold their seats in the House.

I seriously doubt that the Senate will flip in 2016.

Eight years of Obama and eight years of Democrat failed policies and broken promises are enough, for a while.

America needs a break from the Dems so-called Social Engineering and Rule by Imperial Decree.

That exhaustion and disgust will result in the Pubs retaining both House and Senate, and a re-taking of the White House.

I'm really not certain whether that's going to do a damned bit of good, given how unimaginative and vision-less Pub leadership is, but that's the likely scenario.

Sometimes, even a lack of imagination and vision is better than an over-active imagination and a hallucinatory vision that is used as a bludgeon over the heads of The People and which ends-up driving the Nation closer to bankruptcy.

America, in all probability, has had enough of the Dems for a while.

Time for the other guys to get another turn.

 

[kaz]

Again, yes, Republicans have to win more, but they are fighting largely Republican incumbents in Red States. I know the left loves fly by analysis, but you actually have to analyze deeper than 24 States. Which specific seats are you assuming?

Just to name a few that GOPers are going to have to fight real hard to defend:

Republicans must defend seven incumbents that represent states carried by President Obama in 2008 and 2012: Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Mark Kirk of Illinois, Rob Portman of Ohio, Marco Rubio of Florida, and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/03/senate-elections-2016-115674.html#ixzz3XKKpjaFK

And in the shellacking Democrats just took, Republicans only flipped 3 incumbent Senators. Moderate Democrats had a bunch of seats in the West they couldn't flip until they retired or died. Democrats have also had almost no success getting GOP senators defeated in blue states. Only a couple go down. Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio are not even Blue States, they are toss up. Republicans have been doing well in Wisconsin. Democrats couldn't beat Spetor, Republicans did it in the Primary in Pennsylvania.

Now suddenly in addition to holding toss up seats in toss up States in Nevada and Florida, it's in the bag you are going to flip 4-5 more seats? LOL, this is just sticking your hands down your pants. Defeating incumbents in this country is sadly virtually impossible

 

[The Rabbi]

The chances are excellent. The states that have Senate elections in 2016 are bluer than the ones from 2014,

and Democrats get a better turnout in a presidential year.

^^
Clueless

 

[candycorn]

The chances are excellent. The states that have Senate elections in 2016 are bluer than the ones from 2014,

and Democrats get a better turnout in a presidential year.

I said 100% earlier. I'd like to retract that statement. What was I thinking.

It's more like 150% chance the Dems re-take the Senate.

 

[Darkwind]

Its a crazy world so I don't normally like to say none....

But I'd say it was slim to none and slim just caught the train.....

 

[AvgGuyIA]

Zero chance. The American people have the liberal democrats pegged for the dishonest jackals they are. Their reign is ended.

 

[nat4900]

The "problem" is not necessarily elected democrats, but the blatant, abject hatred that right wingers have had toward Obama.....No other president in modern history has had to endure the constant opposition by elected right wingers...From days after Obama took office, the plan was (and still is) for republicans to obstruct, undermine and reject virtually everything that this administration proposed.

With Obama gone in another 1.5 years or so, the burden of governing will fall on heavily on republican hands, and unless the GOP rids itself of crazed ultra-conservatives and clueless tea partiers, the hrand old party will suffer quite a bit....especially since they've managed to piss off all minorities, progressive women who don;t want grouchy old white men dictating what their values should be, and the rising gay/lesbian movements.

 

[The Rabbi]

The "problem" is not necessarily elected democrats, but the blatant, abject hatred that right wingers have had toward Obama.....No other president in modern history has had to endure the constant opposition by elected right wingers...From days after Obama took office, the plan was (and still is) for republicans to obstruct, undermine and reject virtually everything that this administration proposed.

With Obama gone in another 1.5 years or so, the burden of governing will fall on heavily on republican hands, and unless the GOP rids itself of crazed ultra-conservatives and clueless tea partiers, the hrand old party will suffer quite a bit....especially since they've managed to piss off all minorities, progressive women who don;t want grouchy old white men dictating what their values should be, and the rising gay/lesbian movements.

Oh please. Bush faced far worse opposition from Dems. He got things passed only because he knew how to negotiate with people opposed to him. Obama doesnt.

 

[nat4900]

The "problem" is not necessarily elected democrats, but the blatant, abject hatred that right wingers have had toward Obama.....No other president in modern history has had to endure the constant opposition by elected right wingers...From days after Obama took office, the plan was (and still is) for republicans to obstruct, undermine and reject virtually everything that this administration proposed.

With Obama gone in another 1.5 years or so, the burden of governing will fall on heavily on republican hands, and unless the GOP rids itself of crazed ultra-conservatives and clueless tea partiers, the hrand old party will suffer quite a bit....especially since they've managed to piss off all minorities, progressive women who don;t want grouchy old white men dictating what their values should be, and the rising gay/lesbian movements.

Oh please. Bush faced far worse opposition from Dems. He got things passed only because he knew how to negotiate with people opposed to him. Obama doesnt.

It may be too much for your half brain to sort out, but Bush (well, Cheney, actually) scared everyone into submission by threatening to label any dissent as "un-patriotic."........Put two wars, tax cuts and Medicare Part D on a credit card.....and, of course, Bush was white.

 

[kaz]

The "problem" is not necessarily elected democrats, but the blatant, abject hatred that right wingers have had toward Obama.....No other president in modern history has had to endure the constant opposition by elected right wingers...From days after Obama took office, the plan was (and still is) for republicans to obstruct, undermine and reject virtually everything that this administration proposed.

After 8 years of you doing this to W, it just cracks up the shit out of me when you idiot leftists say this stuff...



Suddenly not having vitriolic hatred is a standard for you people. Yeah. The word integrity isn't in the liberal dictionary

 

[kaz]

It may be too much for your half brain to sort out, but Bush (well, Cheney, actually) scared everyone into submission by threatening to label any dissent as "un-patriotic."........Put two wars, tax cuts and Medicare Part D on a credit card.....and, of course, Bush was white.

Who gave a shit if W said that? And you remember the Democratic position? Opposition is patriotic. A standard that you did a 180 on when Obama became president, suddenly it was unpatriotic.

Hey, wait, did you catch that? Suddenly not calling people unpatriotic is a standard for you idiots.

Hypocrisy much? Oh yeah...

 

[kaz]

The chances are excellent. The states that have Senate elections in 2016 are bluer than the ones from 2014,

and Democrats get a better turnout in a presidential year.

I said 100% earlier. I'd like to retract that statement. What was I thinking.

It's more like 150% chance the Dems re-take the Senate.

Weren't a math major, were you?

 

[kaz]

The "problem" is not necessarily elected democrats, but the blatant, abject hatred that right wingers have had toward Obama.....No other president in modern history has had to endure the constant opposition by elected right wingers...From days after Obama took office, the plan was (and still is) for republicans to obstruct, undermine and reject virtually everything that this administration proposed.

With Obama gone in another 1.5 years or so, the burden of governing will fall on heavily on republican hands, and unless the GOP rids itself of crazed ultra-conservatives and clueless tea partiers, the hrand old party will suffer quite a bit....especially since they've managed to piss off all minorities, progressive women who don;t want grouchy old white men dictating what their values should be, and the rising gay/lesbian movements.

Oh please. Bush faced far worse opposition from Dems. He got things passed only because he knew how to negotiate with people opposed to him. Obama doesnt.

W sucked up to and caved to those opposed to him while getting nothing in return

 

[NYcarbineer]

The "problem" is not necessarily elected democrats, but the blatant, abject hatred that right wingers have had toward Obama.....No other president in modern history has had to endure the constant opposition by elected right wingers...From days after Obama took office, the plan was (and still is) for republicans to obstruct, undermine and reject virtually everything that this administration proposed.

With Obama gone in another 1.5 years or so, the burden of governing will fall on heavily on republican hands, and unless the GOP rids itself of crazed ultra-conservatives and clueless tea partiers, the hrand old party will suffer quite a bit....especially since they've managed to piss off all minorities, progressive women who don;t want grouchy old white men dictating what their values should be, and the rising gay/lesbian movements.

Oh please. Bush faced far worse opposition from Dems. He got things passed only because he knew how to negotiate with people opposed to him. Obama doesnt.

What did he get passed that was such a great accomplishment? His budget busting tax cuts? His unfunded Medicare expansion?

 

[NYcarbineer]

The chances are excellent. The states that have Senate elections in 2016 are bluer than the ones from 2014,

and Democrats get a better turnout in a presidential year.

^^
Clueless

Which points do you contest, and why?

 

[g5000]

Everything will turn on the ACA.

The American people will come to realize that a Republican Congress and Republican President will repeal ObamaCare, and they will not go for that.

 

[nat4900]

Right wingers have very short and selective memories......Bush was strongly criticized mostly because of the wars he started and the horrible waste of lives and treasure......Whereas Obama is criticized because, "well, lets get a true American in the WH..." He was not born in the US"....He is a Kenyan communicst,"...."Obama is a Muslim"..."Obama wants to take away your guns..." etc.

If you cannot see the DIFFERENCE, then you are a true right winger.

 

[Little-Acorn]

What are the chances of the Senate flipping in 2016?


Do you mean, "flipping" to actual conservatism, from the quasi-RINO status they have now?

Probably not real good.

That would require that normal Americans (who are conservative despite the way some of them vote) would have to actually pay close attention to what the government is doing, and why.

Since most people are conservative, government is only a minor matter to them, and they don't pay much attention to it, except around April 15.

So the likelihood that they will realize that some of the RINOs they have in the Senate are actually liberals in sheeps' clothing, is not high.

 

[The Rabbi]

The "problem" is not necessarily elected democrats, but the blatant, abject hatred that right wingers have had toward Obama.....No other president in modern history has had to endure the constant opposition by elected right wingers...From days after Obama took office, the plan was (and still is) for republicans to obstruct, undermine and reject virtually everything that this administration proposed.

With Obama gone in another 1.5 years or so, the burden of governing will fall on heavily on republican hands, and unless the GOP rids itself of crazed ultra-conservatives and clueless tea partiers, the hrand old party will suffer quite a bit....especially since they've managed to piss off all minorities, progressive women who don;t want grouchy old white men dictating what their values should be, and the rising gay/lesbian movements.

Oh please. Bush faced far worse opposition from Dems. He got things passed only because he knew how to negotiate with people opposed to him. Obama doesnt.

What did he get passed that was such a great accomplishment? His budget busting tax cuts? His unfunded Medicare expansion?

No child left behind, authored by Ted Kennedy
Tax cuts that saved us from another Depression at the start of his term
A war in Iraq that succeeded by every measure.
A medicaid expansion that has come in under expected budget.