Battle of Bakhmud won by Russia

[BackAgain]

A very unlikely scenario, but a possibility we have been living with since the 1950's. There is no practical military reason for Russia to use nukes in Ukraine since any military targets Russia can identify, it can destroy using conventional weapons, so the nukes would be of value only if Russia decides to commit genocide by targeting population centers.

In the very unlikely event that Russia did use nukes in Ukraine, I believe it is unlikely the West would respond with nukes since there is a consensus among the western allies that they will not directly participate in the fighting, but to provide Ukraine with long range missiles and aircraft so they could take the war to the Russians. For over 70 years the US has been studying how to respond to any sort of nuclear attack, so there is virtually no chance it will make a seat of our pants decision in the very unlikely event Russia used nukes in Ukraine.

I hope it’s unlikely!

But, anyway, your analysis of why it’s unlikely begins with a suppressed premise. Correct me if I’m mistaken, but it seems like you are saying “all leaders including Putin will base their decisions on logic.”

Sadly, life has taught us (and Potato being President confirms for us) that some leaders aren’t too bright to begin with and are seriously lacking in logic, critical thinking capacity, or foresight. This can be even worse under major stress.

 

[Silver Cat]

Both sides have worked for over 70 years to make sure they had a second-strike capability to destroy the other, so talking about winning a nuclear war just makes you sound like an idiot.

The problem is that in recent thirty years American nuclear arsenal significantly degraded, and Russia's - improved. When we calculate the situation, not just declare it, we see, that nowadays American second strike capability doesn't guarantee "destruction" of both Russia and China simultaneously, or even just Russia.
Two boomers survived in the Atlantic (and ready to attack Russia) plus three boomers survived in the Pacific (and ready to attack China) won't destroy Russia and China anyway (especially if their cities are already evacuated and ABD, Emercom and National Guard are ready), and this is if we are talking about optimistic scenario of the Russian attack. In the realistic scenario we have one boomer survived in the Atlantic and one in the Pacific. In the pessimistic (it's unlikely, but still possible) scenario the USA have almost no nukes after the well prepared Russian attack.


There are bad news. Russia and/or China don't need to win a flawless victory. They need a lesser evil.

 

[Silver Cat]

A very unlikely scenario, but a possibility we have been living with since the 1950's. There is no practical military reason for Russia to use nukes in Ukraine since any military targets Russia can identify, it can destroy using conventional weapons, so the nukes would be of value only if Russia decides to commit genocide by targeting population centers.

In the very unlikely event that Russia did use nukes in Ukraine, I believe it is unlikely the West would respond with nukes since there is a consensus among the western allies that they will not directly participate in the fighting, but to provide Ukraine with long range missiles and aircraft so they could take the war to the Russians. For over 70 years the US has been studying how to respond to any sort of nuclear attack, so there is virtually no chance it will make a seat of our pants decision in the very unlikely event Russia used nukes in Ukraine.

Actually, there are targets which worth a nuke (like, say, bridges), but yes. It's highly unlikely, that the Russians will use nukes in the "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine. But there is no doubts that they will use nukes against military targets (first of all nuclear targets like, say, HMNB Clyde in Scotland) in the European war, or against the USA in the case of the large-scale war.

 

[Silver Cat]

War should be avoided at all costs. Putin flat-out does not care about anyone except Putin. He has demonstrated this clearly....he must be stopped. Because there is no living with him otherwise. It's not freedom that Ukraine is fighting for....it's basic life itself.

Oh, man, it's not that bad. The end of Ukrainian state doesn't mean, that the Russians are going immediately kill all Ukrainians. For the most of them difference between Putin and Zelenskiy is hardly larger than the difference between Trump and Biden here in the USA. They may like it, or they may not like it, but it's definitely not the end of the world.

 

[Litwin]

I hope it’s unlikely!

But, anyway, your analysis of why it’s unlikely begins with a suppressed premise. Correct me if I’m mistaken, but it seems like you are saying “all leaders including Putin will base their decisions on logic.”

Sadly, life has taught us (and Potato being President confirms for us) that some leaders aren’t too bright to begin with and are seriously lacking in logic, critical thinking capacity, or foresight. This can be even worse under major stress.

The problem is that in recent thirty years American nuclear arsenal significantly degraded, and Russia's - improved. When we calculate the situation, not just declare it, we see, that nowadays American second strike capability doesn't guarantee "destruction" of both Russia and China simultaneously, or even just Russia.
Two boomers survived in the Atlantic (and ready to attack Russia) plus three boomers survived in the Pacific (and ready to attack China) won't destroy Russia and China anyway (especially if their cities are already evacuated and ABD, Emercom and National Guard are ready), and this is if we are talking about optimistic scenario of the Russian attack. In the realistic scenario we have one boomer survived in the Atlantic and one in the Pacific. In the pessimistic (it's unlikely, but still possible) scenario the USA have almost no nukes after the well prepared Russian attack.


There are bad news. Russia and/or China don't need to win a flawless victory. They need a lesser evil.

Whats going on ? GRU Wagner boss shares graphic video of Wagner fighters killed today, “Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where are the facking shells!” I 1917
It all feels like 1917

Whats going on ? GRU Wagner boss shares graphic video of Wagner fighters killed today, “Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where are the facking shells!” I 1917

Whats going on ? GRU Wagner boss shares graphic video of Wagner fighters killed today, “Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where are the facking shells!” I 1917 It all feels like 1917 ... guys whats going on in Bakhmut ?

www.usmessageboard.com

 

[JohnDB]

Oh, man, it's not that bad. The end of Ukrainian state doesn't mean, that the Russians are going immediately kill all Ukrainians. For the most of them difference between Putin and Zelenskiy is hardly larger than the difference between Trump and Biden here in the USA. They may like it, or they may not like it, but it's definitely not the end of the world.

Holomodor.

Currently in occupied territories Putin has publicly declared that forced internment in another location is what is going to happen to those who refuse to accept Russian citizenship. That's genocide!

So yes, it is the end of the world for those living in Ukraine.

 

[Litwin]

Holomodor.

Currently in occupied territories Putin has publicly declared that forced internment in another location is what is going to happen to those who refuse to accept Russian citizenship. That's genocide!

So yes, it is the end of the world for those living in Ukraine.

1917

population is sympathetic to Prigozhin & hatred towards

military elites close to Putin is rising. This may usher in Putin’s downfall.

 

[JohnDB]

1917

population is sympathetic to Prigozhin & hatred towards

military elites close to Putin is rising. This may usher in Putin’s downfall.

He is setting himself up to win at politics and allowing himself to escape blame for the Counter-offense coming. The current minister of defense time is drawing to a close.....but I don't think that it's all Prigozin wants....I think he wants the Kremlin itself.

Let's see if he survives....all other opponents of Putin's have died. Some mysteriously and some very obviously.

 

[Litwin]

.I think he wants the Kremlin itself.

very interesting, why do you think so ? army , KGB, hate him . still my friend what we have missed , HE SPEAKS ABOUT A REVOLUTION HERE

 

[JohnDB]

very interesting, why do you think so ? army , KGB, hate him . still my friend what we have missed , HE SPEAKS ABOUT A REVOLUTION HERE


View attachment 782360

You should read the list of atrocities he has committed in Africa. Basically he has stolen the Goverments of African countries and is stealing their resources like diamond mines and other resources.

I'd dare say that he has weapons cached somewhere for more troops to seize control of Russia at some point. He is going to have to fight Putin's guard brigade.

 

[Litwin]

You should read the list of atrocities he has committed in Africa. Basically he has stolen the Goverments of African countries and is stealing their resources like diamond mines and other resources.

I'd dare say that he has weapons cached somewhere for more troops to seize control of Russia at some point. He is going to have to fight Putin's guard brigade.

Moscow =rape & looting. its very strange that " global south " is so in love with with Moscow horde ....
i see , 1917

 

[JohnDB]

Moscow =rape & looting. its very strange that " global south " is so in love with with Moscow horde ....
i see , 1917

Wagner is not all broken up over losing soldiers....dead men don't need to get paid. Also his elites are not as dead as he claims. They have been safely secured away from front lines. And considering the close proximity to the Kremlin....I wouldn't put a Coup out of the question for him.

I'm thinking that Russia is going to see some real Chaos in the days ahead. A rout by Ukraine and an internal struggle for leadership. Nevermind the fight Russia is currently facing in Syria at the moment. A war on two fronts....the Syrian war is over their airbase there which they use to import drones from Iran.
Then there's the fighting in Sudan.....

 

[Litwin]

many westerners still believe that Moscow horde cannot lose, I simply tell them: Give the peoples of a Nation the weapons, and they become unconquerable!

 

[Litwin]

Also his elites are not as dead as he claims.

as far as i know GRU Wagner´s elites have never been in Ukraine , for U. GRU created B- crew . still , its very interesting development , Wagner fell before Bakhmut, glory to the defenders

 

[Moonglow]

Russian artillery pounded the last routes out of Bakhmut on Friday, aiming to complete the encirclement of the besieged Ukrainian city and bring Moscow closer to its first major victory in half a year after the bloodiest battle of the war.


And that's that!

March 3 (Reuters) -

Kyiv says forces fighting on in 'utter hell' of Bakhmut battle

Ukraine said on Monday its troops were still fighting against the attempted encirclement of Bakhmut, while Washington said that even if the eastern city should fall to Russia's offensive, it would not necessarily give Moscow momentum in the war.

www.reuters.com

When will the Ruskies finally win?

 

[Litwin]

When will the Ruskies finally win?

Moscow horde´s war record :-
1856 defeated by Britain and France
1905 defeated by Japan
1917 defeated by Germany
1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states
1939 defeated by Finland
1969 defeated by China
1989 defeated by Afghanistan
1989 defeated in the Cold War.
1996 defeated by Chechnya
2022 defeated by Ukraine
WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn
Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :-
a) Hungary 1956
b) Czechoslovakia 1968
c) Moldova 1992
d) Georgia 2008

 

[Litwin]

Wagner is not all broken up over losing soldiers....

When will the Ruskies finally win?

 

[Litwin]

 

[Litwin]

When will the Ruskies finally win?

1917

 

[JohnDB]

1917

Here's a video that explains the problem with Private military companies.
This guy is NOT partisan and gives a very balanced view of the war and an explanation of these PMCs.