COVID-19 Math Problem - please solve

[JimBowie1958]

Not clear what your point is to me? 65,000 since March 1 while totals from the other categories went down the same amount.that implies those deaths were deemed wuhan without knowing it was. So there’s that. Scientists are now saying wuhan was here in September and none of those numbers were there at all. Fudged is what we’re getting.

I think we are learning, as the public, far more about viruses than most ever wanted to know, lol. I suspect that most viruses have a long lead in, but this is the first virus that has been tested for among the asymptomatic population, so now we are getting a more clear picture.

The virus comes from China, and that all started in December 2019. I seriously doubt it goes back to September here in the USA.

My point in my response is that one cannot rationally compare a full year of deaths due to various causes that have no exponential growth rate, like auto accidents, to a virus pandemic that does have such growth rates if left unmanaged could cause the deaths of literally millions of people, in the abstract.

The best way to manage this thing til a treatment of vaccine is easily available is to practice voluntary social distancing and shield the vulnerable in our society instead of maintaining a lockdow of the entire economy till next year.

 

[Pogo]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocated correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Where is the logic?

Thanks

I gotta question your math my friend. I'm coming up with a mortality rate of .057 or 57 times deadlier than the flu.
IOW 5.7 deaths per ONE HUNDRED - Hey, I'm not great at math, but yours does appear suspicious.

United States
Coronavirus Cases:
1,075,643
Deaths:
62,319
Recovered:
149,686

.it is .00046 actually which is less than half a percent. Not 5 percent.

Uhhhm - Multiply 62,319 times 20. It's over 5% my friend

the population is 330MILLION. DUMB ASS.

Again ---- "the population" is irrelevant.

You could plug in all the people who ever lived or everybody whose name begins with an R or every person who ever had sex on the beach or everybody who ever had a purple bicycle times a factor of 0.81372, still irrelevant.

Not irrelevant. It is most relevant. We cannot accurately measure who has had it but we sure as hell can measure total deaths vs. population.

Sure you can. And the result tells you NOTHING. Nothing except what the TREND is. Actually that number is right there on the Worldometers table, has been all along. At this moment we have 198 deaths per 1M population. Twelve days ago that number was 122. Less than a month before that it was 60. Before that it was in single digits. And tomorrow it will be over 200. EVENTUALLY that number will settle but it ain't anywhere near settled yet.

And you're still wrong --- we can indeed measure who has had it, and have already done so in this thread and elsewhere.

Here's where we did that just hours ago:

Cases which had an outcome: 220,438
156,089 (71%) Recovered / Discharged
64,349 (29%) Deaths​

Wrong again. Those numbers are faulty. Deaths and population are accurate. But you keep living in your fantasy world. I think I understand stats a little better than you do.

I still have a bit of a problem with your "total population" manner of analyzing the risk and our current situation.

Exactly. It's like saying "hey look, fifty thousand people went to the baseball game and out of all those people only two of them were able to hit home runs".

 

[DrLove]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocated correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Where is the logic?

Thanks

I gotta question your math my friend. I'm coming up with a mortality rate of .057 or 57 times deadlier than the flu.
IOW 5.7 deaths per ONE HUNDRED - Hey, I'm not great at math, but yours does appear suspicious.

United States
Coronavirus Cases:
1,075,643
Deaths:
62,319
Recovered:
149,686

.it is .00046 actually which is less than half a percent. Not 5 percent.

Uhhhm - Multiply 62,319 times 20. It's over 5% my friend

the population is 330MILLION. DUMB ASS.

Again ---- "the population" is irrelevant.

You could plug in all the people who ever lived or everybody whose name begins with an R or every person who ever had sex on the beach or everybody who ever had a purple bicycle times a factor of 0.81372, still irrelevant.

Not irrelevant. It is most relevant. We cannot accurately measure who has had it but we sure as hell can measure total deaths vs. population.

Sure you can. And the result tells you NOTHING. Nothing except what the TREND is. Actually that number is right there on the Worldometers table, has been all along. At this moment we have 198 deaths per 1M population. Twelve days ago that number was 122. Less than a month before that it was 60. Before that it was in single digits. And tomorrow it will be over 200. EVENTUALLY that number will settle but it ain't anywhere near settled yet.

And you're still wrong --- we can indeed measure who has had it, and have already done so in this thread and elsewhere.

Here's where we did that just hours ago:

Cases which had an outcome: 220,438
156,089 (71%) Recovered / Discharged
64,349 (29%) Deaths​

Wrong again. Those numbers are faulty. Deaths and population are accurate. But you keep living in your fantasy world. I think I understand stats a little better than you do.

I still have a bit of a problem with your "total population" manner of analyzing the risk and our current situation.

Exactly. It's like saying "hey look, fifty thousand people went to the baseball game and out of all those people only two of them were able to hit home runs".

One of the better baseball analogies I've ever seen. Kudos!

 

[Pogo]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocated correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Where is the logic?

Thanks

I gotta question your math my friend. I'm coming up with a mortality rate of .057 or 57 times deadlier than the flu.
IOW 5.7 deaths per ONE HUNDRED - Hey, I'm not great at math, but yours does appear suspicious.

United States
Coronavirus Cases:
1,075,643
Deaths:
62,319
Recovered:
149,686

.it is .00046 actually which is less than half a percent. Not 5 percent.

Uhhhm - Multiply 62,319 times 20. It's over 5% my friend

the population is 330MILLION. DUMB ASS.

Again ---- "the population" is irrelevant.

You could plug in all the people who ever lived or everybody whose name begins with an R or every person who ever had sex on the beach or everybody who ever had a purple bicycle times a factor of 0.81372, still irrelevant.

Not irrelevant. It is most relevant. We cannot accurately measure who has had it but we sure as hell can measure total deaths vs. population.

Sure you can. And the result tells you NOTHING. Nothing except what the TREND is. Actually that number is right there on the Worldometers table, has been all along. At this moment we have 198 deaths per 1M population. Twelve days ago that number was 122. Less than a month before that it was 60. Before that it was in single digits. And tomorrow it will be over 200. EVENTUALLY that number will settle but it ain't anywhere near settled yet.

And you're still wrong --- we can indeed measure who has had it, and have already done so in this thread and elsewhere.

Here's where we did that just hours ago:

Cases which had an outcome: 220,438
156,089 (71%) Recovered / Discharged
64,349 (29%) Deaths​

Wrong again. Those numbers are faulty. Deaths and population are accurate. But you keep living in your fantasy world. I think I understand stats a little better than you do.

I still have a bit of a problem with your "total population" manner of analyzing the risk and our current situation.

It’s about the effect on everyone and not just the sick. Total population entirely appropriate.

Some of the death stats are limited to resolved cases only and don’t include the pending.

Kindly explain to the class how the fuck you can die of a disease you didn't contract. TIA.

Why didn't that six-year-old in the upper deck hit a home run? She was at the damn game with everybody else.

 

[jc456]

Not clear what your point is to me? 65,000 since March 1 while totals from the other categories went down the same amount.that implies those deaths were deemed wuhan without knowing it was. So there’s that. Scientists are now saying wuhan was here in September and none of those numbers were there at all. Fudged is what we’re getting.

I think we are learning, as the public, far more about viruses than most ever wanted to know, lol. I suspect that most viruses have a long lead in, but this is the first virus that has been tested for among the asymptomatic population, so now we are getting a more clear picture.

The virus comes from China, and that all started in December 2019. I seriously doubt it goes back to September here in the USA.

My point in my response is that one cannot rationally compare a full year of deaths due to various causes that have no exponential growth rate, like auto accidents, to a virus pandemic that does have such growth rates if left unmanaged could cause the deaths of literally millions of people, in the abstract.

The best way to manage this thing til a treatment of vaccine is easily available is to practice voluntary social distancing and shield the vulnerable in our society instead of maintaining a lockdow of the entire economy till next year.

Well that would imply agreeing that every death must be wuhan and I don’t.

They learned nothing, except to never close the economy again.

 

[zaangalewa]

The virus comes from China, and that all started in December 2019.

And the virus of the "spanish influenca" came from the USA in 1917.

 

[jc456]

The virus comes from China, and that all started in December 2019.

And the virus of the "spanish influenca" came from the USA in 1917.

And yet the globe has referred to as Spanish

 

[Dragonlady]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocate correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Where is the logic? End the LOCKDOWN!

Thanks

Where is the logic? Tens of thousands of families have suffered the loss of a family member and are in mourning. Nearly a million people are sick and every day more than 2000 American families are losing a loved one. The nation's healthcare workers are sickening and dying. They're exhausted, overwhelmed and their lives are being endangered. They're begging the governors to extend the lockdown.

You currently have 199 deaths per million of population, but that number is going up daily. it was 82 a couple of weeks ago. Based on the current numbers of active cases, your best case scenario is 436 deaths per million. At the very best, you look to be ahead of Italy and Spain overall, but behind the UK. That's if nobody else gets sick.

You cannot deal with the economic consequences of this illness until you stop the spread.

 

[Dragonlady]

The virus comes from China, and that all started in December 2019.

And the virus of the "spanish influenca" came from the USA in 1917.

And yet the globe has referred to as Spanish

This is going to end up being the American Flu because of the failure of the Trump Administration to contain it.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocate correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Where is the logic? End the LOCKDOWN!

Thanks

Where is the logic? Tens of thousands of families have suffered the loss of a family member and are in mourning. Nearly a million people are sick and every day more than 2000 American families are losing a loved one. The nation's healthcare workers are sickening and dying. They're exhausted, overwhelmed and their lives are being endangered. They're begging the governors to extend the lockdown.

You currently have 199 deaths per million of population, but that number is going up daily. it was 82 a couple of weeks ago. Based on the current numbers of active cases, your best case scenario is 436 deaths per million. At the very best, you look to be ahead of Italy and Spain overall, but behind the UK. That's if nobody else gets sick.

You cannot deal with the economic consequences of this illness until you stop the spread.

None of that post is true. Right now one person in the US dies per 5,500. The rest is media panic and noise.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocated correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Where is the logic?

Thanks

I gotta question your math my friend. I'm coming up with a mortality rate of .057 or 57 times deadlier than the flu.
IOW 5.7 deaths per ONE HUNDRED - Hey, I'm not great at math, but yours does appear suspicious.

United States
Coronavirus Cases:
1,075,643
Deaths:
62,319
Recovered:
149,686

.it is .00046 actually which is less than half a percent. Not 5 percent.

Uhhhm - Multiply 62,319 times 20. It's over 5% my friend

the population is 330MILLION. DUMB ASS.

Again ---- "the population" is irrelevant.

You could plug in all the people who ever lived or everybody whose name begins with an R or every person who ever had sex on the beach or everybody who ever had a purple bicycle times a factor of 0.81372, still irrelevant.

Not irrelevant. It is most relevant. We cannot accurately measure who has had it but we sure as hell can measure total deaths vs. population.

Sure you can. And the result tells you NOTHING. Nothing except what the TREND is. Actually that number is right there on the Worldometers table, has been all along. At this moment we have 198 deaths per 1M population. Twelve days ago that number was 122. Less than a month before that it was 60. Before that it was in single digits. And tomorrow it will be over 200. EVENTUALLY that number will settle but it ain't anywhere near settled yet.

And you're still wrong --- we can indeed measure who has had it, and have already done so in this thread and elsewhere.

Here's where we did that just hours ago:

Cases which had an outcome: 220,438
156,089 (71%) Recovered / Discharged
64,349 (29%) Deaths​

Wrong again. Those numbers are faulty. Deaths and population are accurate. But you keep living in your fantasy world. I think I understand stats a little better than you do.

I still have a bit of a problem with your "total population" manner of analyzing the risk and our current situation.

It’s about the effect on everyone and not just the sick. Total population entirely appropriate.

Some of the death stats are limited to resolved cases only and don’t include the pending.

Kindly explain to the class how the fuck you can die of a disease you didn't contract. TIA.

Why didn't that six-year-old in the upper deck hit a home run? She was at the damn game with everybody else.

Pigo, right now 1 person out of every 5.5k dies. The rest is Leftist noise. That is true math. We don’t know how many have been infected. What we do know is deaths and population. Don’t be such dumbass.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocate correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Where is the logic? End the LOCKDOWN!

Thanks

Where is the logic?

If one man infects 2 people every day then 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 ... and so on will be infected in the following days. Under this condition it will need 28 days = 4 weeks to infect all US-Americans. And it were in lots of countries often much more than 2 people, who were infected from 1.

You say 2 of 1000 die in case of Corona so in 4 weeks will be dead 660,000 people in the USA. But how realistic is 0.2%? In Germany for example died in the begininng about 0,4% of the infected people - but meanwhile 10 tiems more, 4%, died - lots of them after weeks of intensive care. So you have to calculate in this case 6,600,000 or even 13.2 million deaths. If I compare other nations it could be even much more worse. In the UK for example die 15.5% of the infected people.

And do not forget: Too fast is always too slow!

Well we’re eight weeks and those figures you gave are nowhere globally or in our country

What do you think why this what you call "lock down" exists? Because everyone is an idiot who learned somehting in school about viruses and exponential functions?

{QUote] So, you’re wrong. Math and facts aren’t good to you

This sentence is totally clear for me the message: US-Americans are the people who fight against each other in case they have have to fight for each other. By the way: How many tombstones do you need? I'm sure we can make a good price. But we will need some weeks to send them over the ocean.
[/QUOTE]
My math was off. We lose 1 person per 5.5k. Tombstones? How many millions of unemployed people do you need? You’re a Leftist. People die from heart disease and alcoholism but we don’t stop driving cars and drinking. You’re a snowflake

 

[Montrovant]

LOL ya meanwhile places like New York report any death as Covid 19 with absolutely no testing. The fact remains Millions probably got sick and just suffered through it. It is no worse then the regular flu to anyone under 50. By the way get back to us when the US has over 200000 dead since thats what dies every year due to the regular flu.

200,000 people do not die in the US every year from the flu...

Past Seasons Estimated Influenza Disease Burden | CDC

These page includes information about the estimated burden of influenza from past seasons, including tables of the estimated influenza disease burden (and 95% credible interval [Cr I]) by age group.

www.cdc.gov

60,000 a year, 200,000 may be cancer or car deaths

60,000 is a pretty high number of estimated deaths for a flu season. Looking at the CDC estimates, the number of deaths per flu season between 2010 and 2017 ranged from 12,000 to 51,000, with an average of about 34,571. The 2017-2018 preliminary estimate is 61,000.

 

[Montrovant]

This is going to end up being the American Flu because of the failure of the Trump Administration to contain it.

 

[playtime]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocate correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Where is the logic? End the LOCKDOWN!

Thanks

Doubt you’d be so cavalier about those 5 deaths if they were your family.

 

[playtime]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocate correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Where is the logic? End the LOCKDOWN!

Thanks

Where is the logic?

If one man infects 2 people every day then 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 ... and so on will be infected in the following days. Under this condition it will need 28 days = 4 weeks to infect all US-Americans. And it were in lots of countries often much more than 2 people, who were infected from 1.

You say 2 of 1000 die in case of Corona so in 4 weeks will be dead 660,000 people in the USA. But how realistic is 0.2%? In Germany for example died in the begininng about 0,4% of the infected people - but meanwhile 10 tiems more, 4%, died - lots of them after weeks of intensive care. So you have to calculate in this case 6,600,000 or even 13.2 million deaths. If I compare other nations it could be even much more worse. In the UK for example die 15.5% of the infected people.

And do not forget: Too fast is always too slow!

Well we’re eight weeks and those figures you gave are nowhere globally or in our country

What do you think why this what you call "lock down" exists? Because everyone is an idiot who learned somehting in school about viruses and exponential functions?

{QUOTE] So, you’re wrong. Math and facts aren’t good to you

This sentence is totally clear for me the message: US-Americans are the people who fight against each other in case they have have to fight for each other. By the way: How many tombstones do you need? I'm sure we can make a good price. But we will need some weeks to send them over the ocean.

My math was off. We lose 1 person per 5.5k. Tombstones? How many millions of unemployed people do you need? You’re a Leftist. People die from heart disease and alcoholism but we don’t stop driving cars and drinking. You’re a snowflake
[/QUOTE]

 

[Dragonlady]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocate correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Where is the logic? End the LOCKDOWN!

Thanks

Where is the logic? Tens of thousands of families have suffered the loss of a family member and are in mourning. Nearly a million people are sick and every day more than 2000 American families are losing a loved one. The nation's healthcare workers are sickening and dying. They're exhausted, overwhelmed and their lives are being endangered. They're begging the governors to extend the lockdown.

You currently have 199 deaths per million of population, but that number is going up daily. it was 82 a couple of weeks ago. Based on the current numbers of active cases, your best case scenario is 436 deaths per million. At the very best, you look to be ahead of Italy and Spain overall, but behind the UK. That's if nobody else gets sick.

You cannot deal with the economic consequences of this illness until you stop the spread.

None of that post is true. Right now one person in the US dies per 5,500. The rest is media panic and noise.

Prove it wrong.

Look at the actual numbers of what is happening in the world, and after you've done that, tell us where you thing this is headed and why.

COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[Leo123]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocated correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Where is the logic?

Thanks

I gotta question your math my friend. I'm coming up with a mortality rate of .057 or 57 times deadlier than the flu.
IOW 5.7 deaths per ONE HUNDRED - Hey, I'm not great at math, but yours does appear suspicious.

United States
Coronavirus Cases:
1,075,643
Deaths:
62,319
Recovered:
149,686

Numerous legit reports have come out telling us the obvious; that nobody can possibly know how many people have been infected.....And that the number infected has been under reported by orders of magnitude.

Therefore, your fake numbers are fucking garbage.

Of course nobody knows how many were infected (since Drumpf botched the testing).
We DO know how many that HAVE been diagnosed have died.
We ALSO know that the actual number it has killed is monumentally underreported

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)

In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.

www.nytimes.com

And my numbers are spot on Trumptard.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

But that is irrelevant, I am only using DEATHS and POPULATION....no other factors as most people recover and such. In terms of deaths we have fewer than 2 per 1000 now and if multiplied by 2.5x would still have fewer than FIVE per 1000.

Oh okay I apologize. I was of course thinking of deaths among those diagnosed as opposed to population.

Yes, yes. I am simplifying it to Deaths (known) and population (known) rest is sort of nebulous. Based on the known data I believe the economy should reopen soon.

The economy should indeed reopen soon. It must. The HOW is the question. We've got to TEST and CONTACT TRACE and QUARANTINE prior to opening large factories with people working in close proximity in addition to safety requirements including proper PPE.

And it's gotta be done slowly and carefully. Social distancing is still important to maintain. And definitely NOT in any of the current hot spots. Do it too quickly and without these measures we're asking for an even worse outbreak and longer shutdown with trillions more in deficit spending.

We got enough to worry about with its certain return in the Fall coinciding with flu season.

What type of testing? How many should we test?

 

[jc456]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocated correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Where is the logic?

Thanks

I gotta question your math my friend. I'm coming up with a mortality rate of .057 or 57 times deadlier than the flu.
IOW 5.7 deaths per ONE HUNDRED - Hey, I'm not great at math, but yours does appear suspicious.

United States
Coronavirus Cases:
1,075,643
Deaths:
62,319
Recovered:
149,686

Numerous legit reports have come out telling us the obvious; that nobody can possibly know how many people have been infected.....And that the number infected has been under reported by orders of magnitude.

Therefore, your fake numbers are fucking garbage.

Of course nobody knows how many were infected (since Drumpf botched the testing).
We DO know how many that HAVE been diagnosed have died.
We ALSO know that the actual number it has killed is monumentally underreported

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)

In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.

www.nytimes.com

And my numbers are spot on Trumptard.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

But that is irrelevant, I am only using DEATHS and POPULATION....no other factors as most people recover and such. In terms of deaths we have fewer than 2 per 1000 now and if multiplied by 2.5x would still have fewer than FIVE per 1000.

Oh okay I apologize. I was of course thinking of deaths among those diagnosed as opposed to population.

Yes, yes. I am simplifying it to Deaths (known) and population (known) rest is sort of nebulous. Based on the known data I believe the economy should reopen soon.

The economy should indeed reopen soon. It must. The HOW is the question. We've got to TEST and CONTACT TRACE and QUARANTINE prior to opening large factories with people working in close proximity in addition to safety requirements including proper PPE.

And it's gotta be done slowly and carefully. Social distancing is still important to maintain. And definitely NOT in any of the current hot spots. Do it too quickly and without these measures we're asking for an even worse outbreak and longer shutdown with trillions more in deficit spending.

We got enough to worry about with its certain return in the Fall coinciding with flu season.

What type of testing? How many should we test?

Not everyone wants to be tested, we live in the US. You need a warrant

 

[Olde Europe]

Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocate correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).

Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.

Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.

Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?

Let's make it simple.

Currently: 64k dead.

Growth/d: 2k.

154k - 64k = 90k

At the current rate, 90k deaths take 45 days - that would happen around mid-June. That's assuming the infection and fatality rates won't pick up with more and more businesses reopening in fly-over country.

You actually seem to think, grabbing some numbers, piling them up, and crowing over what you've found, amounts to an argument.

Be advised, it doesn't.