Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

[DiveCon]

still posting the outlier?



RPC average: 53% approval rating.

Marist 53%
Gallup 52%
Rasmussen 49%
CBS 56%
Ipsos/McClatchy 56%
AP/GfK 56%
Quinnipiac 50%
Pew 52%

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

I'd be so embarrassed to be you.

And I took the time to write that out just to show how stupid you are.

*cheers*

actually, that looks like SeeBS, AP, and IPSOS are the outliers
since the others are all within 4% of Rasmussen

Actually, in this case, with just the approval numbers, those 3 are within 3% of average, while Rasmussen is 4% away from average (the average was 53% after all) which makes Rasmussen the outlier.

Of course this does not include those crazy Disapproval numbers.

BULLSHIT
remove those 3 and the numbers come back down

 

[Sarah G]

I've been wondering where this thread has been lately then I looked at RCP and understood why ozzmdj wasn't that anxious to bring it up.

Rasmussen polling is looking pretty lame here:

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

Ridiculous disapproval numbers from that pollster.

 

[Vast LWC]

actually, that looks like SeeBS, AP, and IPSOS are the outliers
since the others are all within 4% of Rasmussen

Actually, in this case, with just the approval numbers, those 3 are within 3% of average, while Rasmussen is 4% away from average (the average was 53% after all) which makes Rasmussen the outlier.

Of course this does not include those crazy Disapproval numbers.

BULLSHIT
remove those 3 and the numbers come back down

Why would I remove those 3 numbers?

Should they not be counted for some reason?

 

[DiveCon]

Actually, in this case, with just the approval numbers, those 3 are within 3% of average, while Rasmussen is 4% away from average (the average was 53% after all) which makes Rasmussen the outlier.

Of course this does not include those crazy Disapproval numbers.

BULLSHIT
remove those 3 and the numbers come back down

Why would I remove those 3 numbers?

Should they not be counted for some reason?

hey, do what you want
keep discounting rasmussens polling and the tea party people

 

[Maple]

still posting the outlier?



RPC average: 53% approval rating.

Marist 53%
Gallup 52%
Rasmussen 49%
CBS 56%
Ipsos/McClatchy 56%
AP/GfK 56%
Quinnipiac 50%
Pew 52%

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

I'd be so embarrassed to be you.

And I took the time to write that out just to show how stupid you are.

*cheers*

This one's for you Jillian-" I'm in favor of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with typewriters. Frank Lloyd Wright.

BTW-
I am not embarrased and can hardly wait until this November's gubenatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia two democratic strongholds that are very likely to go Republican this year.

 

[Vast LWC]

BULLSHIT
remove those 3 and the numbers come back down

Why would I remove those 3 numbers?

Should they not be counted for some reason?

hey, do what you want
keep discounting rasmussens polling and the tea party people

But I do count them, right along with all the other polling.

It's you folks who don't count polls you don't like.

 

[DiveCon]

Why would I remove those 3 numbers?

Should they not be counted for some reason?

hey, do what you want
keep discounting rasmussens polling and the tea party people

But I do count them, right along with all the other polling.

It's you folks who don't count polls you don't like.

dont you understand those outliers skew the average results?
what if another polling firm had even lower numbers than rasmussen for Obama?
like in the 30% range
that would drop the average WAY down
would you argue that should be included as well?

 

[Vast LWC]

This one's for you Jillian-" I'm in favor of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with typewriters. Frank Lloyd Wright.

BTW-
I am not embarrased and can hardly wait until this November's gubenatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia two democratic strongholds that are very likely to go Republican this year.

I'd say you're right on those races.

Though I'd hesitate to call Virginia a "Democratic Stronghold". As I recall the races in the recent past have been very close there. And besides, it's a Governor's race, not a national race.

 

[Vast LWC]

dont you understand those outliers skew the average results?
what if another polling firm had even lower numbers than rasmussen for Obama?
like in the 30% range
that would drop the average WAY down
would you argue that should be included as well?

If there was one outlier that was way out of the range that was skewing the results, then you would have a point, but there are 3 polls out of 8 that are all at 56%, which makes them decidely not outliers, and applicable to the average.

I guess if you wanted to push it, you could go with the median of the polls, which would be evenly split at 52.5%.

 

[code1211]

hey, do what you want
keep discounting rasmussens polling and the tea party people

But I do count them, right along with all the other polling.

It's you folks who don't count polls you don't like.

dont you understand those outliers skew the average results?
what if another polling firm had even lower numbers than rasmussen for Obama?
like in the 30% range
that would drop the average WAY down
would you argue that should be included as well?

With polling, everything depends on the methodology. If a company is trying to determine how its product will be viewed by 18 to 24 year olds, scientifically accurate poll of the view of the entire population means nothing that is useful. A deliberately filtered poll is what is desired and that is what needs to be delivered.

Many polls conduct scientifically unbiased polls. Rasmussen conducts polls of "Likely Voters". If you are seeking the opinion of people who are likely to vote, which is what politicians are likely to seek, Rasmussen is the poll they will most closely analyze.

If the poll includes the opinions of grade school age children, who cares what the poll says? It will have no impact on the vote. Except in Chicago.

If Rasmussen is an outlier, it speaks more to the methodology and the resulting universe of participants than the accuracy or lack of accuracy.

 

[Vast LWC]

With polling, everything depends on the methodology. If a company is trying to determine how its product will be viewed by 18 to 24 year olds, scientifically accurate poll of the view of the entire population means nothing that is useful. A deliberately filtered poll is what is desired and that is what needs to be delivered.

Many polls conduct scientifically unbiased polls. Rasmussen conducts polls of "Likely Voters". If you are seeking the opinion of people who are likely to vote, which is what politicians are likely to seek, Rasmussen is the poll they will most closely analyze.

If the poll includes the opinions of grade school age children, who cares what the poll says? It will have no impact on the vote. Except in Chicago.

If Rasmussen is an outlier, it speaks more to the methodology and the resulting universe of participants than the accuracy or lack of accuracy.

Rasmussen's only main difference here is that they use computerized polling that doesn't give people an "undecided" choice, even if those people are undecided. This skews the numbers.

Rasmussen admits as much on their own site.

 

[skookerasbil]

Thats right.......we're all 100% certain that there is no bias in a CBS/NY Times poll or the campus polls for that matter!!!

But hey.......what can I say...........my post above was simply a statement of fact. Rasmussen nailed the 2008 election more accurately than ANY other poll

No, no they didn't.

Rasmussen had 6%, the RCP average was 7.6%, and the actual number was 7.2%.

There were at least 3 other major polling agencies that had 7%.

Those polls were Ipsos/McClatchy, CNN, and, strangely enough, FoxNews.

But don't take it from me, here's a link:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 National Head-to-Head Polls

.............which by the way, every single one of the lefty k00ks was praising a year ago. And like I said, in the month before the election, threads were laced with the Rasmussen poll #'s as posted up by the k00k lefties. IN fact, they were falling all over themselves to stick it in the faces of Republicans at the time.

Oh....oh.........but now, mental cases like Jillian call Rasmussen an outlier

Nope,

Of course this has been pointed out on this very thread like 10 times. But you don't really actually pay attention to anything other posters say anyway.

Ooooooops!!!!!!


public self pwn once again s0n...................




How Did We Do?
Thursday, November 06, 2008 Email to a Friend ShareThisAdvertisement
The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Election 2008 showed Barack Obama leading John McCain 52% to 46%. We are pleased to report that those figures precisely matched the actual election returns.

A Fordham University analysis put Rasmussen Reports on top of the list for accuracy among 23 national pollsters.



Oooooooops!!!!!!!

 

[skookerasbil]

How much do I love when the k00ks put it right there on the tee for ya...................

baaaaatter up s0ns!!!!

 

[rightwinger]

Hey Skook

Nobody cares about your juvenile paintbrush art

Makes you look like some idiot walking down the street talking to himself

Just thought I would help you out

 

[code1211]

With polling, everything depends on the methodology. If a company is trying to determine how its product will be viewed by 18 to 24 year olds, scientifically accurate poll of the view of the entire population means nothing that is useful. A deliberately filtered poll is what is desired and that is what needs to be delivered.

Many polls conduct scientifically unbiased polls. Rasmussen conducts polls of "Likely Voters". If you are seeking the opinion of people who are likely to vote, which is what politicians are likely to seek, Rasmussen is the poll they will most closely analyze.

If the poll includes the opinions of grade school age children, who cares what the poll says? It will have no impact on the vote. Except in Chicago.

If Rasmussen is an outlier, it speaks more to the methodology and the resulting universe of participants than the accuracy or lack of accuracy.

Rasmussen's only main difference here is that they use computerized polling that doesn't give people an "undecided" choice, even if those people are undecided. This skews the numbers.

Rasmussen admits as much on their own site.

"Only main difference" is an odd phrase in polling. Every nuance of every question liicits a particular bias in the respondent as well as the tone of the voice of the interviewer, time of day, sequence of questions and just about anything else that one may care to cite.

MSNBC Polls will general illicite a more liberal response from the whole universe than will FOX News. Are we to believe that the poll from each actually always taps in to only the group more sympathetic to the famous political leaning of either or both? It is more likely that the biases of the pollers are consistant than the are the people polled.

For this reason all polls are valuable as they are what they are. It is the people who review each of the polls that need to be aware of the biases. Averaging the polls does not average the opinion. It averages the bias. Averaging the bias is worthless. Read the polls individually and know that that the biases exist.

Read the trends exposed by the polls. If Obama's popularity changes by 3 points in all polls regardless of the level reflected by the individual polls, something is happening. Measure the change, not the level. This is true whether the change is negative, like August, or positive, like September.

Reading a poll and seeing only that which supports your own bias is myopic.

 

[skookerasbil]

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf



The Fordam study..................RASMUSSEN #1.








outliers

 

[DiveCon]

With polling, everything depends on the methodology. If a company is trying to determine how its product will be viewed by 18 to 24 year olds, scientifically accurate poll of the view of the entire population means nothing that is useful. A deliberately filtered poll is what is desired and that is what needs to be delivered.

Many polls conduct scientifically unbiased polls. Rasmussen conducts polls of "Likely Voters". If you are seeking the opinion of people who are likely to vote, which is what politicians are likely to seek, Rasmussen is the poll they will most closely analyze.

If the poll includes the opinions of grade school age children, who cares what the poll says? It will have no impact on the vote. Except in Chicago.

If Rasmussen is an outlier, it speaks more to the methodology and the resulting universe of participants than the accuracy or lack of accuracy.

Rasmussen's only main difference here is that they use computerized polling that doesn't give people an "undecided" choice, even if those people are undecided. This skews the numbers.

Rasmussen admits as much on their own site.

but it skews the numbers BOTH ways
they have the option to go to approve or disapprove equally

 

[skookerasbil]

Hey Skook

Nobody cares about your juvenile paintbrush art

Makes you look like some idiot walking down the street talking to himself

Just thought I would help you out

kinda sucks when the k00ks are made to look like dumbass sheep...... huh s0n??????



Heres to you s0n................

 

[DiveCon]

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf



The Fordam study..................RASMUSSEN #1.








outliers

dude, seriously, stop, you are not helping the cause

 

[skookerasbil]

I fcukking love this site..................