Do you believe the politics in Washington will allow the democrats to win big...

[Billy000]

...in 2014, 2016?

2010 was a costly loss for democrats. Congressional approval has dramatically changed since then however. Republican approval ratings are at a historic low for either party. Let's face it.

As popular as an idea is for a third party, the chances of one actually rising to power that appeals to both the right and the left is slim to none. I think at the very least, democrats are a shoe in for 2014. Republicans probably have enough time to turn their party around for 2016. It's still a solid possibility that we could have a republican president in '16.

 

[OKTexas]

As maobamacare continues to unfold the dems chances will continue to diminish. The media will eventually be forced to cover this disaster and the dems will be history because we have a record of their votes to keep the tragedy alive.

 

[Billy000]

As maobamacare continues to unfold the dems chances will continue to diminish. The media will eventually be forced to cover this disaster and the dems will be history because we have a record of their votes to keep the tragedy alive.

And you think the Republicans are just fine then?

 

[OKTexas]

As maobamacare continues to unfold the dems chances will continue to diminish. The media will eventually be forced to cover this disaster and the dems will be history because we have a record of their votes to keep the tragedy alive.

And you think the Republicans are just fine then?

No they still need to rid themselves of the big government establishment RINOs, that will come with time.

 

[tinydancer]

Just reading Nate Silver's predictions. This man is pretty accurate.

He says the D's won't take the House. And the Senate is a toss up for a myriad of reasons. The shutdown won't impact the mid terms.

 

[Billy000]

As maobamacare continues to unfold the dems chances will continue to diminish. The media will eventually be forced to cover this disaster and the dems will be history because we have a record of their votes to keep the tragedy alive.

And you think the Republicans are just fine then?

No they still need to rid themselves of the big government establishment RINOs, that will come with time.

So you think that is the only Republican party problem? The public approval is inconsequential?

 

[Billy000]

Just reading Nate Silver's predictions. This man is pretty accurate.

He says the D's won't take the House. And the Senate is a toss up for a myriad of reasons. The shutdown won't impact the mid terms.

Why wouldn't the dems take the house? What is his logic?

 

[ScienceRocks]

The republicans are now a radical party that don't believe in America's greatness.

They will be whiged hopefully.

 

[Harry Dresden]

As maobamacare continues to unfold the dems chances will continue to diminish. The media will eventually be forced to cover this disaster and the dems will be history because we have a record of their votes to keep the tragedy alive.

And you think the Republicans are just fine then?

No they still need to rid themselves of the big government establishment RINOs, that will come with time.

i think its more like...because "RINOS" can actually work with Democrats and agree on something the Far Right dont want them around.....because we all know that with the Far Right its..... if you dont think like us....fuck you....matter of fact they have that attitude with Moderate Republicans too....

 

[Harry Dresden]

The republicans are now a radical party that don't believe in America's greatness.

They will be whiged hopefully.

i dont know about that Matt....some are pretty gung ho on that....

 

[OKTexas]

And you think the Republicans are just fine then?

No they still need to rid themselves of the big government establishment RINOs, that will come with time.

So you think that is the only Republican party problem? The public approval is inconsequential?

Nope they have a marketing problem, there hasn't been an effective republican salesman since Reagan, but that is also changing.

 

[Billy000]

No they still need to rid themselves of the big government establishment RINOs, that will come with time.

So you think that is the only Republican party problem? The public approval is inconsequential?

Nope they have a marketing problem, there hasn't been an effective republican salesman since Reagan, but that is also changing.

 

[Pogo]

...in 2014, 2016?

2010 was a costly loss for democrats. Congressional approval has dramatically changed since then however. Republican approval ratings are at a historic low for either party. Let's face it.

As popular as an idea is for a third party, the chances of one actually rising to power that appeals to both the right and the left is slim to none. I think at the very least, democrats are a shoe in for 2014. Republicans probably have enough time to turn their party around for 2016. It's still a solid possibility that we could have a republican president in '16.

I wouldn't read too much into mid-term elections. Usually whichever party has the White House loses Congressional ground in a mid-term election, no matter who it is. There have been I think three exceptions since the Civil War but otherwise the party in the WH always loses seats. So unless the Republicans commit some major fuckup near election time they should expect to gain in 2014.

 

[OKTexas]

The republicans are now a radical party that don't believe in America's greatness.

They will be whiged hopefully.

When are you going to realize that greatness is never gained thorough government control. Government is slow and regressive, it impeads advancement.

 

[Nyvin]

Just reading Nate Silver's predictions. This man is pretty accurate.

He says the D's won't take the House. And the Senate is a toss up for a myriad of reasons. The shutdown won't impact the mid terms.

I actually agree with this

 

[blackhawk]

At this point I think people are highly disgusted with both parties so I don't see much of a change in 2014 and 2016 is to far away to make any predictions far to much can happen between now and then on both the foreign and domestic policy fronts to swing things back and fourth between now and 2016.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The shutdown won't impact the mid terms.

I agree. If the midterms were this November it would be a problem for the GOP, but since they are next year nobody is going to give a shit about a shutdown of 13% of the federal government over a year ago.

ObamaCare will define next year's elections.

 

[Nyvin]

The shutdown won't impact the mid terms.

I agree. If the midterms were this November it would be a problem for the GOP, but since they are next year nobody is going to give a shit about a shutdown of 13% of the federal government over a year ago.

ObamaCare will define next year's elections.

The shutdown and debt ceiling issues will have an overall negative impact on the GOP (please people, just face it...) but it certainly won't be the huge overwhelming surge it's sometimes being made out to be. If anything it will make the "GOP victory of 2014" into the "Democrats pick up a few seats in 2014" bump in the road (once again...if anything)

 

[tinydancer]

Just reading Nate Silver's predictions. This man is pretty accurate.

He says the D's won't take the House. And the Senate is a toss up for a myriad of reasons. The shutdown won't impact the mid terms.

Why wouldn't the dems take the house? What is his logic?

He leans left but man he is spot on when it comes to election analysis.

I'm conservative but I pay attention to Nate because despite political differences, I know a good analyst when I read one.

Here's part of a great article. Worth the read.

3. Democrats face extremely unfavorable conditions in trying to regain the House.

Even if the shutdown were to have a moderate political impact — and one that favored the Democrats in races for Congress — it might not be enough for them to regain control of the U.S. House. Instead, Democrats face two major headwinds as they seek to win back Congress.

First, there are extremely few swing districts — only one-half to one-third as many as when the last government shutdown occurred in 1996.

Some of this is because of partisan gerrymandering, but more of it is because of increasingly sharp ideological divides along geographic lines: between urban and rural areas, between the North and the South, and between the coasts and the interior of the United States.

So even if Democrats make significant gains in the number of votes they receive for the House, they would flip relatively few seats because of the way those votes are distributed.

Most of the additional votes would come in districts that Democrats were already assured of winning, or where they were too far behind to catch up.

Consider that, between 2010 and 2012, Democrats went from losing the average congressional district by seven percentage points to winning it by one percentage point — an eight-point swing.
And yet they added only eight seats in the House, out of 435 congressional districts.

In 2014, likewise, it will require not just a pretty good year for Democrats, but a wave election for them to regain the House.

But wave elections in favor of the party that controls the White House are essentially unprecedented in midterm years. Instead, the president's party has almost always lost seats in the House — or at best gained a handful.

Nate Silver on the U.S. government shutdown - FiveThirtyEight

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The shutdown won't impact the mid terms.

I agree. If the midterms were this November it would be a problem for the GOP, but since they are next year nobody is going to give a shit about a shutdown of 13% of the federal government over a year ago.

ObamaCare will define next year's elections.

The shutdown and debt ceiling issues will have an overall negative impact on the GOP (please people, just face it...) but it certainly won't be the huge overwhelming surge it's sometimes being made out to be. If anything it will make the "GOP victory of 2014" into the "Democrats pick up a few seats in 2014" bump in the road (once again...if anything)

That's a possible scenario. In the end it will come down to who the candidates are. Some very winnable races have been blown over the past few election cycles due to the candidates that got nominated.