McKinsey: Automation May Wipe Out 1/3 of America’s Workforce by 2030

[debbiedowner]

even hookers will become robots?

Would it be against the law to have a stable of sex robots? Would they call it robot trafficking? Think about it, you could make a mint with a house of robot sex workers. Hey, could franchise.

i cant wait to see the catalogue of robots to choose from,,i want the robot that is a white woman who feels black

Since they will have absolutely no inhibitions I will have to charge $1000 per hour.

 

[Rexx Taylor]

even hookers will become robots?

Would it be against the law to have a stable of sex robots? Would they call it robot trafficking? Think about it, you could make a mint with a house of robot sex workers. Hey, could franchise.

i cant wait to see the catalogue of robots to choose from,,i want the robot that is a white woman who feels black

Since they will have absolutely no inhibitions I will have to charge $1000 per hour.

but im on a budget, can i get a S.Korean Female robot for 9.00 hr?

 

[ptbw forever]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Well that's what it's about. It's up to the people whether to accept automation or not. As for myself, I only went to a self-checkout line in the grocery store when I was in a hurry one time. Other than that, I refuse to use them.

http://beta.latimes.com/business/la-fi-wendys-kiosk-20170227-story.html

At the time self-checkout stations were put in, just about everybody said they would replace the cashiers wholesale in a short time.

5 years later my Walmart still has a tiny and cramped section for self-checkout that barely anyone uses, while the cashier lines are almost always full.

Automation is failing everywhere except assembly lines.

 

[Jarlaxle]

The American average lifespan is only 78.

Which is 18 years longer than when Social Security was established.

We are living DECADES longer. We should be working longer. Common sense.

I don't see a benefit to raising the age of retirement to 70, especially if there are fewer jobs due to automation, I don't see how someone who is 65, less productive really stands a chance in the workforce.

The 65 year old of today is healthier than the 65 year old of 1935.

We are living longer, we should be working longer. Common. Fricking. Sense.

My issue with this is as you age your productivity goes down and if you have older Americans hanging onto jobs that younger people should have, then what happens? What are companies going to do? Hang onto people who earn more money and don't produce as much as they used to, or fire them and hire younger people who are more productive?

What happens to the older generation who can't find a job but are now too young to retire? Plus the average lifespan hasn't really increased that much. In 1960 it was 70, now it's 78. Then what happens if the average lifespan ever drops, what do we do then?

Life Expectancy In U.S. Drops For First Time In Decades, Report Finds

How are any of the problems you described not applicable to the current situation?

If you work until 70, you have increased the number of your earning years. You will be contributing longer to the treasury, and drawing out less. That's a boon to our federal expenditures on entitlement programs.

5.4% of Americans were over 65 when SS was established. Now, 15% of Americans are over 65. That is an unsustainable trend. Less workers are supporting more retirees.

We are living longer. We should be working longer. Common sense.

As for life expectancy dropping, that's because we are victims of our own prosperity and have become obese.

It is our current situation. If you increase the retirement age and there are fewer jobs due to automation then there is going to be a gap between employment and retirement.

Which is why it should be coupled to a 30 hour work week.

Are you going to make up for the pay cut I would take?

 

[Jarlaxle]

Go to a four day work week for full time employees is a good start.

That’s dependent on what job you work in, if it’s in some sort of construction or Labor business, well there a deadlines and actual work that needs to be done. And if you’re paying your employees hourly, not only are you going to be forever 1/5 behind on your deadlines, those employees won’t be too happy with 4 days pay. Sure there’s a lot of jobs with people spending multiple hours a day on social media and whatnot because they don’t actually have work to do the entire time. But there’s also a shit ton of jobs that still need to operate on 5 day work weeks. Lawyers, healthcare, labor, anything hourly, etc.

Being able to work a shorter work week on a fulltime job should be a benefit OF automation. Time was when people routinely worked 12 hour days in what was considered a fulltime job.

It benefits you personally but not financially. I would love to work 10 hours a week and get paid for 40. Life would be great, but nobody will pay you for 40 hours a week while only working 10.

...unless you "work" for the government and have the right connections.

 

[Jarlaxle]

There is a flip side we also have to implement.

We are living longer, we should be working longer. Common sense.

Social Security and Medicare eligibility age needs to be changed to 70, indexed to 9 percent of the population.

The American average lifespan is only 78.

Which is 18 years longer than when Social Security was established.

We are living DECADES longer. We should be working longer. Common sense.

I don't see a benefit to raising the age of retirement to 70, especially if there are fewer jobs due to automation, I don't see how someone who is 65, less productive really stands a chance in the workforce.

The 65 year old of today is healthier than the 65 year old of 1935.

We are living longer, we should be working longer. Common. Fricking. Sense.

My issue with this is as you age your productivity goes down and if you have older Americans hanging onto jobs that younger people should have, then what happens? What are companies going to do? Hang onto people who earn more money and don't produce as much as they used to, or fire them and hire younger people who are more productive?

What happens to the older generation who can't find a job but are now too young to retire? Plus the average lifespan hasn't really increased that much. In 1960 it was 70, now it's 78. Then what happens if the average lifespan ever drops, what do we do then?

Life Expectancy In U.S. Drops For First Time In Decades, Report Finds

How are any of the problems you described not applicable to the current situation?

If you work until 70, you have increased the number of your earning years. You will be contributing longer to the treasury, and drawing out less. That's a boon to our federal expenditures on entitlement programs.

5.4% of Americans were over 65 when SS was established. Now, 15% of Americans are over 65. That is an unsustainable trend. Less workers are supporting more retirees.

We are living longer. We should be working longer. Common sense.

As for life expectancy dropping, that's because we are victims of our own prosperity and have become obese.

Working until a later age is a suggestion by those who stand in front of a camera holding a microphone. But do you want to see a 69 year old man carry shingles up a ladder to a roof three stories high? Do you want the guy collecting your garbage to be working like that at age 67? Would you like to see 66 year old guys carrying 8" block to a job site or mixing cement? Or my job for instance: would you want to be the car in front of me when I'm piloting a 75,000 lbs vehicle and traffic comes to a sudden stop?

When it comes to blue collar work, many struggle to do their jobs until the age of 65 yet alone 70. Working later in life is only applicable to certain jobs that don't require physical labor or quick decision making.

I worked with a dude who threaded a 40' highway coach through New York City at age 82. (The customer usually requested him by name.) My uncle's father still runs heavy equipment in his 80's, and he and my uncle celebrated his 83rd birthday with an Iron Butt motorcycle ride. (Hilton Head to LA in <50 hours.) I work with a couple guys driving tractor trailers in their 60's.

 

[Jarlaxle]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Actually, McDs is installing automated order kiosks...saw my first one a couple months ago.

 

[ptbw forever]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Actually, McDs is installing automated order kiosks...saw my first one a couple months ago.

They won’t last.

Just like how nobody uses electronic voting machines.

 

[Jarlaxle]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Actually, McDs is installing automated order kiosks...saw my first one a couple months ago.

They won’t last.

Just like how nobody uses electronic voting machines.

Electronic voting machined should be prohibited. All voting should be done on paper ballots.

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Actually, McDs is installing automated order kiosks...saw my first one a couple months ago.

They won’t last.

Just like how nobody uses electronic voting machines.

Electronic voting machined should be prohibited. All voting should be done on paper ballots.

Well you can thank Al Gore and the Democrats for that one.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The days of growing up to work in your daddy's factory are long gone. We need to retool our education system for the jobs of tomorrow, not the jobs of yesterday.

McKinsey: automation may wipe out 1/3 of America’s workforce by 2030

In a new study that is optimistic about automation yet stark in its appraisal of the challenge ahead, McKinsey says massive government intervention will be required to hold societies together against the ravages of labor disruption over the next 13 years. Up to 800 million people—including a third of the work force in the U.S. and Germany—will be made jobless by 2030, the study says.

The bottom line: The economy of most countries will eventually replace the lost jobs, the study says, but many of the unemployed will need considerable help to shift to new work, and salaries could continue to flatline. "It's a Marshall Plan size of task," Michael Chui, lead author of the McKinsey report, tells Axios.


Translation: Stop drinking the piss of politicians who tell you they will bring back the jobs that went overseas. The jobs didn't go overseas. They have been automated and are never coming back.



Read this, too: https://economics.mit.edu/files/12763

Between 1993 and 2007, every new robot replaced between 3 and 5.6 workers.



Read this: http://conexus.cberdata.org/files/MfgReality.pdf

"Almost 88 percent of job losses in manufacturing in recent years can be attributable to productivity growth, and the long-term changes to manufacturing employment are mostly linked to the productivity of American factories.”



Gone, baby, gone. Those jobs are not coming back. Ever. Anyone who promises you they are is a fucking criminal liar.


When a shitbag politician tells you he is going to bring back those lost jobs with tariffs and trade deals, he is talking out of his ass. He is being fucking lazy and hoping you are too ignorant to catch on.

We need to start burning those politicians at the stake, and start forcing their replacements to retool our entire education system.


Back to Axios:

• The transition compares to the U.S. shift from a largely agricultural to an industrial-services economy in the early 1900s forward. But this time, it's not young people leaving farms, but mid-career workers who need new skills. "There are few precedents in which societies have successfully retrained such large numbers of people," the report says, and that is the key question: how do you retrain people in their 30s, 40s and 50s for entirely new professions?

Wake up, America. You're children are being robbed of a future by elected hucksters.

But we've been promised millions of good paying jobs coming from the big corporate tax cuts in the GOP tax bill!!!!

 

[ptbw forever]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Actually, McDs is installing automated order kiosks...saw my first one a couple months ago.

They won’t last.

Just like how nobody uses electronic voting machines.

Electronic voting machined should be prohibited. All voting should be done on paper ballots.

Most people will feel the same way about the kiosks soon.

 

[NYcarbineer]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Actually, McDs is installing automated order kiosks...saw my first one a couple months ago.

They won’t last.

Just like how nobody uses electronic voting machines.

Electronic voting machined should be prohibited. All voting should be done on paper ballots.

I have to agree. All voting should be taken off computers entirely, for starters.

 

[Jarlaxle]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Actually, McDs is installing automated order kiosks...saw my first one a couple months ago.

They won’t last.

Just like how nobody uses electronic voting machines.

Electronic voting machined should be prohibited. All voting should be done on paper ballots.

Most people will feel the same way about the kiosks soon.

Naah.

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Well that's what it's about. It's up to the people whether to accept automation or not. As for myself, I only went to a self-checkout line in the grocery store when I was in a hurry one time. Other than that, I refuse to use them.

Wendy's adds automation to the fast-food menu

At the time self-checkout stations were put in, just about everybody said they would replace the cashiers wholesale in a short time.

5 years later my Walmart still has a tiny and cramped section for self-checkout that barely anyone uses, while the cashier lines are almost always full.

Automation is failing everywhere except assembly lines.

The only reason for that is because the stores don't offer a discount for using them. When self-serve gasoline pumps first came out, it was an idea by a gas station owner who didn't want his mechanics stopping all the time to pump gasoline. So they started to install self-serve pumps and offered a few cents less per gallon on gasoline. Before you knew it, everybody was trying to save money on gasoline and self-serve exploded.

If stores figure that strategy out, they will do the same. Eventually (like full serve gasoline pumps) people will just get used to checking themselves out. Then they will eventually take the discount away and we will be stuck with self-serve checkouts.

 

[imawhosure]

The days of growing up to work in your daddy's factory are long gone. We need to retool our education system for the jobs of tomorrow, not the jobs of yesterday.

McKinsey: automation may wipe out 1/3 of America’s workforce by 2030

In a new study that is optimistic about automation yet stark in its appraisal of the challenge ahead, McKinsey says massive government intervention will be required to hold societies together against the ravages of labor disruption over the next 13 years. Up to 800 million people—including a third of the work force in the U.S. and Germany—will be made jobless by 2030, the study says.

The bottom line: The economy of most countries will eventually replace the lost jobs, the study says, but many of the unemployed will need considerable help to shift to new work, and salaries could continue to flatline. "It's a Marshall Plan size of task," Michael Chui, lead author of the McKinsey report, tells Axios.


Translation: Stop drinking the piss of politicians who tell you they will bring back the jobs that went overseas. The jobs didn't go overseas. They have been automated and are never coming back.



Read this, too: https://economics.mit.edu/files/12763

Between 1993 and 2007, every new robot replaced between 3 and 5.6 workers.



Read this: http://conexus.cberdata.org/files/MfgReality.pdf

"Almost 88 percent of job losses in manufacturing in recent years can be attributable to productivity growth, and the long-term changes to manufacturing employment are mostly linked to the productivity of American factories.”



Gone, baby, gone. Those jobs are not coming back. Ever. Anyone who promises you they are is a fucking criminal liar.


When a shitbag politician tells you he is going to bring back those lost jobs with tariffs and trade deals, he is talking out of his ass. He is being fucking lazy and hoping you are too ignorant to catch on.

We need to start burning those politicians at the stake, and start forcing their replacements to retool our entire education system.


Back to Axios:

• The transition compares to the U.S. shift from a largely agricultural to an industrial-services economy in the early 1900s forward. But this time, it's not young people leaving farms, but mid-career workers who need new skills. "There are few precedents in which societies have successfully retrained such large numbers of people," the report says, and that is the key question: how do you retrain people in their 30s, 40s and 50s for entirely new professions?

Wake up, America. You're children are being robbed of a future by elected hucksters.

I think the numbers in the piece are higher than they should be along with the timeline being short, but yeah, we agree on this one for sure!

So, what does that mean?

Well, it sure gives impetus as another reason, NOT to allow uneducated people into this country, because the jobs remaining for uneducated people, need be OUR people, and NOT the uneducated of the world!

 

[ptbw forever]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Well that's what it's about. It's up to the people whether to accept automation or not. As for myself, I only went to a self-checkout line in the grocery store when I was in a hurry one time. Other than that, I refuse to use them.

Wendy's adds automation to the fast-food menu

At the time self-checkout stations were put in, just about everybody said they would replace the cashiers wholesale in a short time.

5 years later my Walmart still has a tiny and cramped section for self-checkout that barely anyone uses, while the cashier lines are almost always full.

Automation is failing everywhere except assembly lines.

The only reason for that is because the stores don't offer a discount for using them. When self-serve gasoline pumps first came out, it was an idea by a gas station owner who didn't want his mechanics stopping all the time to pump gasoline. So they started to install self-serve pumps and offered a few cents less per gallon on gasoline. Before you knew it, everybody was trying to save money on gasoline and self-serve exploded.

If stores figure that strategy out, they will do the same. Eventually (like full serve gasoline pumps) people will just get used to checking themselves out. Then they will eventually take the discount away and we will be stuck with self-serve checkouts.

Not going to happen.

Pumping gas and cashiering are far different. You are talking about replacing a secondary function(a mechanic pumping gas)versus replacing a primary function(a cashier....cashiering)

Currently the self-checkout is just a weak substitute for the “15 items or less” lines that are starting to come back in spite of it. It is far more time efficient for a competent cashier to ring up and bag your items no matter how many you have.

The biggest weakness of self-checkout is that it is impossible to even checkout more than 20 items without running out of space to bag all the items on the counter at the same time(which you have to do if you don’t want the machine to think you are stealing LOL).At best you can only check out a lot of items if you do multiple transactions and waste a ton of time(and space).

 

[BulletProof]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Your post is absolute idiocy. The Walmarts around here have recently made most of their checkouts self-serve, so much for your ignorant shit about them losing appeal. But, yes, self-checkouts will lose appeal, but only because "checking out" will be obsolete in ten or twenty years. You'll just choose what you want and you'll be charged, without bothering to life a finger to pay, let alone stand in a check out lane.

In 20 years, 90% of current jobs will be eliminated, or be in the process of being eliminated, by technology. At McDonald's, machines won't just take orders, they'll do the cooking and cleaning, too.

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Well that's what it's about. It's up to the people whether to accept automation or not. As for myself, I only went to a self-checkout line in the grocery store when I was in a hurry one time. Other than that, I refuse to use them.

Wendy's adds automation to the fast-food menu

At the time self-checkout stations were put in, just about everybody said they would replace the cashiers wholesale in a short time.

5 years later my Walmart still has a tiny and cramped section for self-checkout that barely anyone uses, while the cashier lines are almost always full.

Automation is failing everywhere except assembly lines.

The only reason for that is because the stores don't offer a discount for using them. When self-serve gasoline pumps first came out, it was an idea by a gas station owner who didn't want his mechanics stopping all the time to pump gasoline. So they started to install self-serve pumps and offered a few cents less per gallon on gasoline. Before you knew it, everybody was trying to save money on gasoline and self-serve exploded.

If stores figure that strategy out, they will do the same. Eventually (like full serve gasoline pumps) people will just get used to checking themselves out. Then they will eventually take the discount away and we will be stuck with self-serve checkouts.

Not going to happen.

Pumping gas and cashiering are far different. You are talking about replacing a secondary function(a mechanic pumping gas)versus replacing a primary function(a cashier....cashiering)

Currently the self-checkout is just a weak substitute for the “15 items or less” lines that are starting to come back in spite of it. It is far more time efficient for a competent cashier to ring up and bag your items no matter how many you have.

The biggest weakness of self-checkout is that it is impossible to even checkout more than 20 items without running out of space to bag all the items on the counter at the same time(which you have to do if you don’t want the machine to think you are stealing LOL).At best you can only check out a lot of items if you do multiple transactions and waste a ton of time(and space).

What the stores are doing now is opening up more self-checkouts and less cashier checkouts. They want to pressure people into those self-checkout lines to eventually replace cashiers. You may have four or five people in lines at the cashier and nobody in the self-checkout line.

All stores today would get rid of their cashiers and force us into self-checkouts, but they have to be concerned about their number one competition, and that is online shopping. Grocery stores would have nothing to worry about, however, for all other items, Americans might choose online shopping instead of the headache of shopping in person then having to check yourself out.

 

[ptbw forever]

This is absolute idiocy.

Automation has actually slowed down a ton since the 90s, and 12 years will mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Machines can’t even replace incompetent teenagers behind the counter of a McDonalds yet.

Even the automated cashier stations at Walmart are starting to lose their appeal, and they implemented that shit a half a decade ago.

Your post is absolute idiocy. The Walmarts around here have recently made most of their checkouts self-serve, so much for your ignorant shit about them losing appeal. But, yes, self-checkouts will lose appeal, but only because "checking out" will be obsolete in ten or twenty years. You'll just choose what you want and you'll be charged, without bothering to life a finger to pay, let alone stand in a check out lane.

In 20 years, 90% of current jobs will be eliminated, or be in the process of being eliminated, by technology. At McDonald's, machines won't just take orders, they'll do the cooking and cleaning, too.

I doubt your Walmarts get that much business. Checking out 20 items at a time without any cashier training is vastly inferior to someone who takes pride in their speedy transactions just breezing through your 300 items like it is nothing and possibly helping you carry some of them to your car.

In 20 years I half expect technology to actually start moving backwards, if not completely halted by vast ethnic and racial conflict stopping peacetime technological development.

We have moved basically nowhere from the late 90s compared to where we thought we would.