My predictions for the trump impeachment

[Norman]

Where the OP got his predictive models:

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Senate aint going to convict if trump were to be impeached in the house. That would be the republican death knell and good riddance to those weak spineless rubes if they did.

So let's say, for arguments sake, Democrats prove conclusively that he used that military aid to coerce Zelensky to dig for dirt on Biden -- you still think Republicans won't convict him?

They have no proof. Its hearsay. You're talking about hypotheticals and wishful musings.

I understand they have no proof, that's why I said, "for argument's sake."

I'll accept your non-answer as you're too embarrassed to admit they won't.

If they had evidence, they probably would but I don't know.

 

[SAYIT]

So let's say, for arguments sake, Democrats prove conclusively that he used that military aid to coerce Zelensky to dig for dirt on Biden -- you still think Republicans won't convict him?

I dont think they will convict him. I think Trump will come up with some spun up narrative and they will stand behind that. Look how spineless they are on issues now. I hear them talking about gun legislation and nobody will do anything until Trump gives them their marching orders. It’s pathetic.

The Senate won't have to do anything because Articles of impeachment will not make through the House. Keep in mind neither Pelosi's claim of "formal impeachment inquiry" nor Nadler's August claim of "official impeachment proceedings" have any authority unless the House votes to approve them (which they haven't). You've been duped again.

Funny. Speaker Pelosi would not have launched an Official Impeachment Inquiry if she thought she didn't have the votes to impeach. She is famous for accurately counting her votes. I have no doubt that Trump will be impeached in the House. The Senate is a different matter.

It's not about having the votes to impeach you STUPID, STUPID child but rather about her having a House resolution to institute the "formal impeachment inquiry" - which she doesn't - she announced with great fanfare today. You also have been duped again because you are STUPID.

A House resolution is not needed.

Here, knock yourself out....

The Impeachment Process in the House of Representatives

So you are saying Pelosi did not announce a "formal impeachment inquiry" (notice the quotation marks) but if she did she didn't need a House resolution to do so?

Yanno you are pretty much a STUPID post machine but even drunk I can't match your ineptitude.

By the way, your own source contradicts your silliness (in bold below). You do know what a House Resolution is, right?

Knock yourself out:

Introduction of a Simple Resolution A Member can initiate an impeachment process by drafting a simple resolution and placing it in the House hopper, the way all simple resolutions are submitted to the House. If the resolution directly calls for an impeachment, it will be referred to the Committee on the Judiciary. If it instead calls for an investigation of an official by a standing committee or proposes the creation of a special committee for that purpose, the resolution will be referred to the Committee on Rules, which has jurisdiction over the authorization of committee investigations. No special procedures restrict when such a resolution can be submitted, although historically they have been submitted relatively infrequently.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

This is just a thrown dart prediction, it doesnt mean anything but I do think it has some merit.

First, trumps presidency will not survive this. I've said for a long time that people are way too confident when it comes to trump winning in 2020. I think his odds are not as good as many would think.

Most people in the u.s. are not as politically "in tune" as those you see here. By that, I mean, most dont really follow politics. They are generally armchair pundits that follow it as much as the hour of news they watch each night. I would say they would be easily influenced by other opinions as, while they call themselves republicans, that is a term they use to associate themselves with a certain set of ideals attributed to a politician in their party. Very few have the wherewithal to actually argue politics.

The left wing media machine has done an excellent job of pushing a narrative. The left, if nothing else, are persistent, and unwavering. This persistence does have an effect on those republicans I described above. Mabey not all, but many.

The left has done a very good at associating things like misogyny, racism, greed, anti immigration, and womanizing with trump. This has spillover consequence. The left is pushing the narrative that if you support trump, and/or vote for him, you support all of those attributes and that means you are all of then as well, even though none of it is true, you may just be voting for the candidate on the platform, against democrats.

But what if that isnt the only consequence? What if it is found out that you voted for trump at your place if employment? It could cause problems. Sure, they cant fire you for voting for a president, but if they are successful in labeling you a racist/womanizer/mysoginist because of your support for him, that could cause issues, especially if people look back in your years at the job and if someone starts thinking: "hmm, 2 years ago I heard him make a comment about soandso, and knowing he is a trump supporter, it makes sense now".

Especially if you are at odds with someone at work, they could leverage this against you.

People are afraid of labels, and if they think they will be labeled, it could cause some people to abstain from voting altogether.

This is also why many Republican members of congress who are in an election year may start to jump ship if it looks like things are going bad for trump, because they are afraid of being labeled, and they will be afraid of losing their seat if they see the public majority are increasing animosity against trump (remember, there are generally more democrats than republicans).

There is no way the democrats are not going to bring articles of impeachment. This will go to trial in the senate. There will be a lot of pressure on republicans on the senate to impeach him.

This will probably go down in one of two ways:

1) trump loses in 2020 because of a successful media campaign against him that sways voters due to unwanted labeling or because they become convinced the left is right.

2) a brutal impeachment inquiry and subsequent trial may mean things start looking bad for trump. If trump feels he may end up being a candidate for removal, cuts a deal to end the investigation in return for his resignation. I'm sorry to say it, but I don't believe trump will let himself be the first president to be removed from office.

It doesnt even matter if he is guilty or not. Is it not possible that simply being an impeached president with the aura of corruption (whether true or not) hanging around you could spell problems for his business dealings? Is he willing to risk that for a presidency?

Again, this is just an opinion, but I feel there may be some merit to it. I feel it may be imperative to have another Republican candidate on deck. I am willing to admit I'm totally wrong here, as this is just some preliminary notions.

If trump gets impeached, the 2020 election will come down to how justified America perceives the impeachment is. If Democrats impeach him lacking compelling evidence, he'll run, wearing impeachment as a badge, and win easily. But on the other hand, if Democrats can find undeniable evidence that he pressured Ukraine to dig up dirt on Biden and used that military aid to obtain it; and Republicans refuse to convict him in the Senate, he would lose <hyperbole>if I ran against him</hyperbole>.

There is no law that says the president cannot pressure Ukraine to investigate corruption.

There also is no law that says running for president makes your son immune from being investigated by Ukraine.

There sure isn't. Again, dems are frothing over their emotions with no facts, evidence, or logic. Its amazing watching their hate usurp logic and fact.

 

[OldLady]

President Trump isn't going anywhere. The Democratic Party has turned into a bunch of anti-American, Socialists who are OK with turning this country into a 3rd world shit-hole as long as they are in power. Democrats will lie and cheat to try and get Trump out of office.

You've learned your lessons well, haven't you? As long as it slams the Democrats and divides us further, you've okay with it.

What happened to the days when people could disagree -- for a good reason, not made up horseshit -- without thinking the other side is "evil?" This is ridiculous.

The democrats became evil and started to actively go after anyone who disagrees. Have you been living under a rock?

Now good Americans need to fight the demons. We will win.

The Democrats aren't demons. You need to wake up. Fighting demons keeps us too busy to fix our problems.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Senate aint going to convict if trump were to be impeached in the house. That would be the republican death knell and good riddance to those weak spineless rubes if they did.

So let's say, for arguments sake, Democrats prove conclusively that he used that military aid to coerce Zelensky to dig for dirt on Biden -- you still think Republicans won't convict him?

Wait a minute. If they find what Biden did applies to Trump? Is that what you mean?

Biden didn't do what trump allegedly did. Biden served the U.S.. Trump, if this story is true, served Trump.

Biden did worse you fucking retard. He demanded a foreign prosecutor be removed to protect his son.

They were silent then.

 

[MisterBeale]

This is just a thrown dart prediction, it doesnt mean anything but I do think it has some merit.

First, trumps presidency will not survive this. I've said for a long time that people are way too confident when it comes to trump winning in 2020. I think his odds are not as good as many would think.

Most people in the u.s. are not as politically "in tune" as those you see here. By that, I mean, most dont really follow politics. They are generally armchair pundits that follow it as much as the hour of news they watch each night. I would say they would be easily influenced by other opinions as, while they call themselves republicans, that is a term they use to associate themselves with a certain set of ideals attributed to a politician in their party. Very few have the wherewithal to actually argue politics.

The left wing media machine has done an excellent job of pushing a narrative. The left, if nothing else, are persistent, and unwavering. This persistence does have an effect on those republicans I described above. Mabey not all, but many.

The left has done a very good at associating things like misogyny, racism, greed, anti immigration, and womanizing with trump. This has spillover consequence. The left is pushing the narrative that if you support trump, and/or vote for him, you support all of those attributes and that means you are all of then as well, even though none of it is true, you may just be voting for the candidate on the platform, against democrats.

But what if that isnt the only consequence? What if it is found out that you voted for trump at your place if employment? It could cause problems. Sure, they cant fire you for voting for a president, but if they are successful in labeling you a racist/womanizer/mysoginist because of your support for him, that could cause issues, especially if people look back in your years at the job and if someone starts thinking: "hmm, 2 years ago I heard him make a comment about soandso, and knowing he is a trump supporter, it makes sense now".

Especially if you are at odds with someone at work, they could leverage this against you.

People are afraid of labels, and if they think they will be labeled, it could cause some people to abstain from voting altogether.

This is also why many Republican members of congress who are in an election year may start to jump ship if it looks like things are going bad for trump, because they are afraid of being labeled, and they will be afraid of losing their seat if they see the public majority are increasing animosity against trump (remember, there are generally more democrats than republicans).

There is no way the democrats are not going to bring articles of impeachment. This will go to trial in the senate. There will be a lot of pressure on republicans on the senate to impeach him.

This will probably go down in one of two ways:

1) trump loses in 2020 because of a successful media campaign against him that sways voters due to unwanted labeling or because they become convinced the left is right.

2) a brutal impeachment inquiry and subsequent trial may mean things start looking bad for trump. If trump feels he may end up being a candidate for removal, cuts a deal to end the investigation in return for his resignation. I'm sorry to say it, but I don't believe trump will let himself be the first president to be removed from office.

It doesnt even matter if he is guilty or not. Is it not possible that simply being an impeached president with the aura of corruption (whether true or not) hanging around you could spell problems for his business dealings? Is he willing to risk that for a presidency?

Again, this is just an opinion, but I feel there may be some merit to it. I feel it may be imperative to have another Republican candidate on deck. I am willing to admit I'm totally wrong here, as this is just some preliminary notions.

If trump gets impeached, the 2020 election will come down to how justified America perceives the impeachment is. If Democrats impeach him lacking compelling evidence, he'll run, wearing impeachment as a badge, and win easily. But on the other hand, if Democrats can find undeniable evidence that he pressured Ukraine to dig up dirt on Biden and used that military aid to obtain it; and Republicans refuse to convict him in the Senate, he would lose <hyperbole>if I ran against him</hyperbole>.

Yeah, I'd agree with this, if you could prove that the current government of Ukraine weren't a bunch of CIA stooges and Nazi's.

Americans know the truth these days though.

You can bullshit yourself, but you can't bullshit the public anymore. Folks know what has happened. Will just posted in another thread an article from Yahoo, and I read the comments from the public? It was overwhelmingly ganging up on Obama, Biden, and Clinton corruption. People don't believe in the integrity of the Ukrainian puppet regime. If you do, that is on you. Folks don't buy it.

Pot calls Kettle black

Go ahead, go to Yahoo and read the comments for yourself if you don't believe me. The public knows the truth.
Calling Trump a 'corrupt human tornado,' Hillary Clinton backs impeachment

 

[SAYIT]

I don't think the Senate will impeach him under any circumstances.

He could shoot someone on 5th Avenue, and they still wouldn't impeach him.

Impeachment is not a Senate function but rather a House one and they don't need a valid reason to impeach … just a political excuse like "trump is a poopyhead."

BTW, Trump has shot no one on 5th Av.

 

[MisterBeale]

Senate aint going to convict if trump were to be impeached in the house. That would be the republican death knell and good riddance to those weak spineless rubes if they did.

So let's say, for arguments sake, Democrats prove conclusively that he used that military aid to coerce Zelensky to dig for dirt on Biden -- you still think Republicans won't convict him?

Wait a minute. If they find what Biden did applies to Trump? Is that what you mean?

Biden didn't do what trump allegedly did. Biden served the U.S.. Trump, if this story is true, served Trump.

Biden did worse you fucking retard. He demanded a foreign prosecutor be removed to protect his son.

This is what Faun and the left are in complete denial of.

They are in denial of the fact that the US government backed NAZIS to overthrow the legitimately elected government of Ukraine so the US could expand NATO right up to Russia's front door.

 

[SAYIT]

Senate aint going to convict if trump were to be impeached in the house. That would be the republican death knell and good riddance to those weak spineless rubes if they did.

So let's say, for arguments sake, Democrats prove conclusively that he used that military aid to coerce Zelensky to dig for dirt on Biden -- you still think Republicans won't convict him?

They have no proof. Its hearsay. You're talking about hypotheticals and wishful musings.

I understand they have no proof, that's why I said, "for argument's sake."

I'll accept your non-answer as you're too embarrassed to admit they won't.

So you wanna play "let's pretend" and then claim your pretentions are better? Is that your silly game? WTF happened to your mind the last 3 years? The decline has been precipitous.

 

[MisterBeale]

Senate aint going to convict if trump were to be impeached in the house. That would be the republican death knell and good riddance to those weak spineless rubes if they did.

So let's say, for arguments sake, Democrats prove conclusively that he used that military aid to coerce Zelensky to dig for dirt on Biden -- you still think Republicans won't convict him?

Wait a minute. If they find what Biden did applies to Trump? Is that what you mean?

Biden didn't do what trump allegedly did. Biden served the U.S.. Trump, if this story is true, served Trump.

Biden did worse you fucking retard. He demanded a foreign prosecutor be removed to protect his son.

Dumbfuck, nothing Biden did protected his son. His son didn't need protection. His son wasn't in trouble. His son wasn't facing charges. His son wasn't being investigated. The company his son worked for wasn't being investigated.

Not after Biden got done doing what he did, nor after the CIA got done having NAZIS create a coop in Ukraine, of course not.

 

[SAYIT]

Senate aint going to convict if trump were to be impeached in the house. That would be the republican death knell and good riddance to those weak spineless rubes if they did.

Republicans will not impeach regardless of the facts

However, if the information is damaging to the country and the presidency, both Trump and Republican Senators will have to answer to the voters

In order for the Senate to conduct the trial the Dem-majority House must first impeach and a simple majority would suffice. Nearly 3 full years since "impeach" was first screamed, 8 full months since the Dems took the House, and 6 full months since the Mueller witch-hunt concluded and they still can't get a resolution to pass. It is obviously reticent Dems who are holding up the process.

Wanna guess why?

With a solid majority of Americans against impeachment could it be fear of voter backlash perhaps?

 

[rightwinger]

Senate aint going to convict if trump were to be impeached in the house. That would be the republican death knell and good riddance to those weak spineless rubes if they did.

Republicans will not impeach regardless of the facts

However, if the information is damaging to the country and the presidency, both Trump and Republican Senators will have to answer to the voters

In order for the Senate to conduct the trial the Dem-majority House must first impeach and a simple majority would suffice. Nearly 3 full years since "impeach" was first screamed, 8 full months since the Dems took the House, and 6 full months since the Mueller witch-hunt concluded and they still can't get a resolution to pass. It is obviously reticent Dems who are holding up the process.

Wanna guess why?

With a solid majority of Americans against impeachment could it be fear of voter backlash perhaps?

I doubt if voters will show much sympathy for Trump because he is being picked on

 

[TroglocratsRdumb]

the Pyschocrats can impeach President Trump 7 times a week, but he will remain in office because they don't have the senate

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Senate aint going to convict if trump were to be impeached in the house. That would be the republican death knell and good riddance to those weak spineless rubes if they did.

Republicans will not impeach regardless of the facts

However, if the information is damaging to the country and the presidency, both Trump and Republican Senators will have to answer to the voters

In order for the Senate to conduct the trial the Dem-majority House must first impeach and a simple majority would suffice. Nearly 3 full years since "impeach" was first screamed, 8 full months since the Dems took the House, and 6 full months since the Mueller witch-hunt concluded and they still can't get a resolution to pass. It is obviously reticent Dems who are holding up the process.

Wanna guess why?

With a solid majority of Americans against impeachment could it be fear of voter backlash perhaps?

You are correct. They know what the public is going to do with them for their continued rage based on nothing else but emotion and hate.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Senate aint going to convict if trump were to be impeached in the house. That would be the republican death knell and good riddance to those weak spineless rubes if they did.

Republicans will not impeach regardless of the facts

However, if the information is damaging to the country and the presidency, both Trump and Republican Senators will have to answer to the voters

In order for the Senate to conduct the trial the Dem-majority House must first impeach and a simple majority would suffice. Nearly 3 full years since "impeach" was first screamed, 8 full months since the Dems took the House, and 6 full months since the Mueller witch-hunt concluded and they still can't get a resolution to pass. It is obviously reticent Dems who are holding up the process.

Wanna guess why?

With a solid majority of Americans against impeachment could it be fear of voter backlash perhaps?

I doubt if voters will show much sympathy for Trump because he is being picked on

Everyone sees the dem carnival. Stay in that bubble though.

 

[M14 Shooter]

First, trumps presidency will not survive this.

Trump will remain in office until at least January 20 2021 - and the Democrats are doing all they can to ensure the "at least" part.

 

[SAYIT]

This is just a thrown dart prediction, it doesnt mean anything but I do think it has some merit.

First, trumps presidency will not survive this. I've said for a long time that people are way too confident when it comes to trump winning in 2020. I think his odds are not as good as many would think.

Most people in the u.s. are not as politically "in tune" as those you see here. By that, I mean, most dont really follow politics. They are generally armchair pundits that follow it as much as the hour of news they watch each night. I would say they would be easily influenced by other opinions as, while they call themselves republicans, that is a term they use to associate themselves with a certain set of ideals attributed to a politician in their party. Very few have the wherewithal to actually argue politics.

The left wing media machine has done an excellent job of pushing a narrative. The left, if nothing else, are persistent, and unwavering. This persistence does have an effect on those republicans I described above. Mabey not all, but many.

The left has done a very good at associating things like misogyny, racism, greed, anti immigration, and womanizing with trump. This has spillover consequence. The left is pushing the narrative that if you support trump, and/or vote for him, you support all of those attributes and that means you are all of then as well, even though none of it is true, you may just be voting for the candidate on the platform, against democrats.

But what if that isnt the only consequence? What if it is found out that you voted for trump at your place if employment? It could cause problems. Sure, they cant fire you for voting for a president, but if they are successful in labeling you a racist/womanizer/mysoginist because of your support for him, that could cause issues, especially if people look back in your years at the job and if someone starts thinking: "hmm, 2 years ago I heard him make a comment about soandso, and knowing he is a trump supporter, it makes sense now".

Especially if you are at odds with someone at work, they could leverage this against you.

People are afraid of labels, and if they think they will be labeled, it could cause some people to abstain from voting altogether.

This is also why many Republican members of congress who are in an election year may start to jump ship if it looks like things are going bad for trump, because they are afraid of being labeled, and they will be afraid of losing their seat if they see the public majority are increasing animosity against trump (remember, there are generally more democrats than republicans).

There is no way the democrats are not going to bring articles of impeachment. This will go to trial in the senate. There will be a lot of pressure on republicans on the senate to impeach him.

This will probably go down in one of two ways:

1) trump loses in 2020 because of a successful media campaign against him that sways voters due to unwanted labeling or because they become convinced the left is right.

2) a brutal impeachment inquiry and subsequent trial may mean things start looking bad for trump. If trump feels he may end up being a candidate for removal, cuts a deal to end the investigation in return for his resignation. I'm sorry to say it, but I don't believe trump will let himself be the first president to be removed from office.

It doesnt even matter if he is guilty or not. Is it not possible that simply being an impeached president with the aura of corruption (whether true or not) hanging around you could spell problems for his business dealings? Is he willing to risk that for a presidency?

Again, this is just an opinion, but I feel there may be some merit to it. I feel it may be imperative to have another Republican candidate on deck. I am willing to admit I'm totally wrong here, as this is just some preliminary notions.

This has no merit – the nonsense about the ‘left wing media machine’ in particular.

Impeaching Trump guarantees his re-election and relegates Democrats to the political wilderness – including losing the House in 2020.

Democrats lose if they do the right thing.

If they do the pragmatic thing and don’t impeach they stand a better chance of winning the WH and Senate in 2020 – they’ll be doing what’s politically expedient, but not the right thing.

Don't be ridiculous. The House impeachment inquiry began months ago. If they just let it all fizzle out now with no significant votes or findings to report they'll be rightly judged gutless and lose.

The Dems are screwed if they do and schlonged if they don't and they have done it to themselves. Pelosi's announcement yesterday of a "formal impeachment inquiry" has the same legal significance as Fat J-Nad's just 6 weeks ago … NONE.

Without a House resolution it's just political grandstanding. The Dems are gonna have to man-up and put it to a vote … again.

The Consequence of No Consequences
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has made the calculation that everything that has already happened to America is not necessarily worthy of response, evidently on the theory that it endangers the chances of a continued Democratic House majority in 2020.

 

[SAYIT]

Senate aint going to convict if trump were to be impeached in the house. That would be the republican death knell and good riddance to those weak spineless rubes if they did.

Republicans will not impeach regardless of the facts

However, if the information is damaging to the country and the presidency, both Trump and Republican Senators will have to answer to the voters

In order for the Senate to conduct the trial the Dem-majority House must first impeach and a simple majority would suffice. Nearly 3 full years since "impeach" was first screamed, 8 full months since the Dems took the House, and 6 full months since the Mueller witch-hunt concluded and they still can't get a resolution to pass. It is obviously reticent Dems who are holding up the process.

Wanna guess why?

With a solid majority of Americans against impeachment could it be fear of voter backlash perhaps?

I doubt if voters will show much sympathy for Trump because he is being picked on

Perhaps but they will seek vengeance on those who have foisted fraud after lame fraud on this country while doing NOTHING to make our lives better.

Pelosi's announcement notwithstanding, in order to make use of the legal tools available to them for a "formal impeachment inquiry" they must first pass a House resolution establishing one. That means a majority of House members will have to go on record and the last time they tried that - July 17 of this year - it didn't go well for them:

In lopsided vote, House kills effort to impeach Trump
The House voted on Wednesday to table a resolution from Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, to impeach President Donald Trump over racist comments he made about four Democratic congresswomen of color, effectively killing the measure.

The vote — 332 to 95, with one lawmaker voting "present" — marked the first time the Democratic-controlled chamber had weighed in on impeachment, an issue that has created a widening schism within the party.

 

[skookerasbil]

LOL......progressives have had Trump impeached over 50 times in the past 2 years. Remember? On Flynn.......on Clapper.....on Comey.....on Stone......on Kushner......on Manifort.........on Cohen........on Brennan.........and all the other couple of dozen fAiL's. Every time we heard in here, "We got 'em now!!"

This Ukraine stuff is even more of a joke.........if Im Biden, Im bowing out TODAY!!!

Progressives have the political IQ of a small soap dish.......impeachment measures ensures next November = the DUMS getting a MOAB dropped on them!