Renewable Energy Will Be Consistently Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels By 2020

[progressive hunter]

I don't knock confirmed tech, but you need to be realistic in what it can do in the near term. Scandinavia invested billions and it is not returning the investment. When I was in Denmark about 1/3 of the wind turbines were shut down due to mechanical problems and the rest were killing birds. We need to proceed with sensible caution on this.

thats all true to a point, but you do have to kill a few birds and waste a little money for any chance to make it work.
think about all the people that have died due to bad pharma, 10 yrs ago it was the #1 killer and today its down to about 3rd

and there are thousands of homes across the country being powered by solar and wind and a lot of them its unrealistic to bring a hardwire to them...no other options

as to the birds the problem is they are use vertical windmills instead of the horizontal ones, and yes its been proven that large solar farms are not the solution where as induvidual systems are a very positive solution or at least in some areas a good offset during high usage periods

there are zero homes across the country being powered solely by solar and wind. that is a fantasy. Here in south Louisiana you can get a solar system for around 25K with 70-80% of it being refunded by the state and federal govt on your tax return, several of my neighbors have had them installed, the average saving on their power bill is $70 per month. So 25K times 80% = 5K out of pocket, divided by 70 = 71 months to break even. almost 6 years and the expected life of the panels is not much more than that. so even with the govt contribution (paid for by the rest of the taxpayers) its not a very good deal.

We will get there, but we aint there yet by a long shot.

so youve been to every house in the country to confirm such a claim...NOT
one of the youtubers I watch spend his life installing systems in full off grid houses,,,but its the internet so it must be a lie


ITS CLEAR FROM YOUR COMMENT YOU ARE BLOWING SMOKE JUST FOR THE SAKE OF IT, AND NOT WORTH MORE OF MY TIME

sorry if facts piss you off, there may be people living off the grid on a mountaintop in Hawaii, but its not a life style that most people would like or choose.

run off if you want, I don't care.

I am pushing 70 and it's not much different than when I was growing up. At one place we lived, the we thought we were lucky because the pump was in the kitchen and the outhouse was only 100 feet away. Heat was done by coal chunks and hardwood. The place was built right over a natural spring. The sewage was done by a leech field. Lights were done by coal oil lanterns. There were many Rocky Mountain High Country Folks that lived like that back then. And there are still some that live like that now. The only difference is, the poor lived like that then but now it's the Rich that live like that.

funny how that worked out

 

[Daryl Hunt]

not true, all roof structures are just fine as long as built to code

You do realize a roof built to say a florida code wouldn't last a single winter in say Maine, right?

what kind of moron would build a roof to florida standards in maine???

a complete moron

whats worse is a moron using that as a comparison or ...exactly why are you comparing them???put down the hammer and step away from the nail....please

What I am trying to allude to is a State like California mandating a code requirement like solar panels for a State so large as to have multiple climate types.

Again, it may be a good idea in San Diego, but north of San fran they have a far more cloudy/overcast climate.

But progressives like one size fits all solutions to "problems" and who the fuck cares if it adds $20k to the cost of a new home.

as far as structure thats already been calculated in and houses in the north are just fine,,
but I agree in state wide in cali might be over reach where as state wide in new mexico,arizona or texas would only make sense

youd be a moron to live in say phoenix and not have them

but structure is the last concern since the add up to less than 5lbs per sq ft

You also have to take into account the additional penetrations needed for the electrical connections, and as these locations up north see more precipitation than south it adds to the complexity of the roof above and beyond the loading.

My point is with the reduced efficiencies found in more northern latitudes, is mandating it state-wide just virtue signaling?

So instead of 90 percent you only get 75%. That's better than nothing. Around here, we have a ton of Solar. Solar even puts out power during rain storms but it might be only 60%. But 60% is better than nothing. With the new Solar Panels, during a real sunny day right at Noon, it's nothing to get a 95% rating. Add batteries to that for the evenings and you have your lights, AC, and more 24/7 with a surplus. So you only get 70% where you are at with the new systems. That's better than nothing. And it's cost affective pretty quick if it's already built into the cost of building the house. All the new Commercial Buildings being built for the last 2 years all have Solar built into them. Your point doesn't have a point other than just throwing BS into the Ball game.

 

[Daryl Hunt]

Good lord, y’all are actually lending credence to this fantasy by arguing its possibility.

It's already here.

This was done in 2014. This Record-Breaking Electric Plane Stomps a Gas-Powered Cessna

This was done in 2011 Electric Airplane Wins $1.35 Million Prize From NASA

How about 2018 just to show how far things have come


The Motors and the Aircraft are already here. The Max flight time is right around 2 hours at about 100 mph and that just about applies to all the ones I listed above. One can hit over 220 mph but can only do it for 15 minutes. The limiting factor is the batteries. Right now, every tom dick and harry major corporation is working on the Solid State Rechargeable battery that will be at least twice as power dense as the current LiP04 batteries, 3 times smaller and will last hundreds of thousands of cycles and cost a fraction of the cost to make. They can already make small versions of it so look for it to be introduced in small electronics first until they scale it up. A few of the Car Manfacturers like Dyson, Honda, etc. are shooting for around 2025. And when they make the scene for the cars, they also make the scene for Aircraft. If you can build a car that can go 500 miles on a charge and transport 6, you can also make an Aircraft that can do 1000 miles or more, seat 10 just as easy.

 

[progressive hunter]

If I may quote the great visionary/philosopher Lazarus long

"listen to experts tell you why it cant be done, then go ahead and do it"

 

[Daryl Hunt]

Right now, there is an Electric Aircraft Engine rated at 350 hp. What that means is, it puts out 350 hp at zero to the Aircraft's maximum altitude. Let's say you have a 350 hp Avgas powered AC using the same aircraft. It puts out 350hp at sea level. But as it goes up in altitude, it starts losing power. Chances are, it's going to lose so much power the maximum limit for the airframe will never be reached. You can supercharge or turbocharge the engine, yes but your fuel consumption and cost will go up. In the end, once the solid state batteries are introduced, the smaller place planes will just about all become electric due to cost of operation. The cost of purchase will be about the same.

In order to obtain the same performance at, say, 20,000 feet, you are going have to be swinging in the upwards of 1000 hp out of the Avgas powered AC compared to the 350 hp electric. And the weight of the 1000 hp Avgas powered AC will be quite hefty which means it's range will be limited. There won't be any reason to go with the more expensive gas powered engine to get the same performance, speed and range. Of course, I am talking about a 10 to 15 place aircraft used for commuter service.

2025 is just 6 years away.

 

[Daryl Hunt]

If I may quote the great visionary/philosopher Lazarus long

"listen to experts tell you why it cant be done, then go ahead and do it"

I was once told that I couldn't do 2000 situps in one hour. I did it anyway. Of course, my abs were trashed for about 2 weeks though. Sometimes doing it ain't the brightest thing in the cookie jar.

 

[Daryl Hunt]

If I may quote the great visionary/philosopher Lazarus long

"listen to experts tell you why it cant be done, then go ahead and do it"

BTW, I retired from building and designing electric vehicles. Mostly 2 and 3 wheelers getting around the NHTA Laws that way. If I wanted, I could easily take that technology and transfer it to an Aircraft since I am also a retired US Air Force have lots of retired acquaintances that would jump at the chance at that type of project. Old Keezer Power Rulez.

 

[grainbely]

Better than tripling down on dirty subsidized power that kills us and our necessary environment. Youd have to be an absolute fool to think fossil fuels are our future.

Better than tripling down on dirty subsidized power

Dirty and subsidized? You mean solar?

No I mean coal and oil. They win the awful prize a thousand times over. Coal ash kills. Crude oil kills. The gulf of Mexico is a disaster zone.

No I mean coal and oil.

Coal and oil aren't subsidized, they tax the shit out of them.

They are both subsidized and taxed. It's weird and I'm not sure why off hand. I read that theres a 20b a year mostly direct subsidy and a 200b a year estimated indirect subsidy. My guess is that the extractors and processors get the benefit of the subsidies to keep supply and prices in check at state and federal level then the states go and assess a consumption tax at the pos.

I read that theres a 20b a year mostly direct subsidy and a 200b a year estimated indirect subsidy.

When 3rd world countries subsidize fuel for their citizens, that does nothing to help US producers who are heavily taxed.

Not 3rd world. America.

 

[karpenter]

OK, So If It Is Cheaper
Can It Be Produced In The Same Volume

 

[Daryl Hunt]

OK, So If It Is Cheaper
Can It Be Produced In The Same Volume

If you are talking about light planes, it can be adapted to the models already flying. The same rules apply for both electric and Avgas. Keep it light. If you are talking about 10 to 15 place, then that's a different story and it's going to have to be built from the ground up and Electrics will cost a bit more. If you are talking about 50 to 120 then that's a whole new world that we may not get to for many decades.

 

[karpenter]

OK, So If It Is Cheaper
Can It Be Produced In The Same Volume

If you are talking about light planes, it can be adapted to the models already flying. The same rules apply for both electric and Avgas. Keep it light. If you are talking about 10 to 15 place, then that's a different story and it's going to have to be built from the ground up and Electrics will cost a bit more. If you are talking about 50 to 120 then that's a whole new world that we may not get to for many decades.

No, I'm Not Talking About Airplanes
Or Powering Individual Homes And Businesses
I'm Talking About The Amount Of Energy
Needed For An Industrial Powerhouse Society Of 320 Million

Future Technology Will Be A Super-Magic
That'll Make All Our Dreams Come True !!
-- And We'll All Live Happily Ever After
'The End'...

Otherwise
We're Talking A Goal Of De-Industrialization
Setting Life Back To The 18th Century
Because That's What Wind, Solar And Water Can Produce
And The Excess Population, What Happens To Us And YOU

I'm Convinced, No Matter What They May Say
Deep In The Heart Of Every 'Environmentalist'
Is A Desire To Make Nature A Museum
That We Look And See, But Don't Touch

 

[Pilot1]

I'll wait for Di-Lithium Crystals. Until then, DRILL BABY DRILL!

 

[Daryl Hunt]

OK, So If It Is Cheaper
Can It Be Produced In The Same Volume

If you are talking about light planes, it can be adapted to the models already flying. The same rules apply for both electric and Avgas. Keep it light. If you are talking about 10 to 15 place, then that's a different story and it's going to have to be built from the ground up and Electrics will cost a bit more. If you are talking about 50 to 120 then that's a whole new world that we may not get to for many decades.

No, I'm Not Talking About Airplanes
Or Powering Individual Homes And Businesses
I'm Talking About The Amount Of Energy
Needed For An Industrial Powerhouse Society Of 320 Million

Future Technology Will Be A Super-Magic
That'll Make All Our Dreams Come True !!
-- And We'll All Live Happily Ever After
'The End'...

Otherwise
We're Talking A Goal Of De-Industrialization
Setting Life Back To The 18th Century
Because That's What Wind, Solar And Water Can Produce
And The Excess Population, What Happens To Them/US

I'm Convinced, No Matter What They May Say
Deep In The Heart Of Every 'Environmentalist'
Is A Desire To Make Nature A Museum
That We Look And See, But Don't Touch

Here is a good counter to your doomsday argument.

Lockheed Martin Now Has a Patent For Its Potentially World Changing Fusion Reactor
I have to find another job when this is done, I can't even retire when this is done

 

[karpenter]

Here is a good counter to your doomsday argument.

Lockheed Martin Now Has a Patent For Its Potentially World Changing Fusion Reactor
I have to find another job when this is done, I can't even retire when this is done

That's All Very Nice
We Were Told Electricity Would Be Next To Free

But We Haven't Been Building Reactors
Have We
The Process And Science Isn't The Problem

Future Technology, Of Course
Will Be The Big Magic Wand

 

[Daryl Hunt]

Here is a good counter to your doomsday argument.

Lockheed Martin Now Has a Patent For Its Potentially World Changing Fusion Reactor
I have to find another job when this is done, I can't even retire when this is done

That's All Very Nice
We Were Told Electricity Would Be Next To Free

But We Haven't Been Building Reactors
Have We

Now Go Search YouTube
To Find The Answer Why Not

I found the answer. Maybe not the one you want but it seems to fit the best. And here it is. Enjoy.

 

[karpenter]

I found the answer. Maybe not the one you want but it seems to fit the best. And here it is. Enjoy.

Cute
But No, That Isn't Why

Three Mile Island Is Why
Geology
Chernobyl Is Why
Human Error
The One In Japan Is Why
Natural Disaster

 

[Daryl Hunt]

I found the answer. Maybe not the one you want but it seems to fit the best. And here it is. Enjoy.

Cute
But No, That Isn't Why

And exactly who promised electricity would be free to you. No one ever made that promise to me. If you find someone willing to give you electricity for free, send them my way. Until then I guess I will just have to keep paying for it. Technology costs and no matter what it is, it will come with some sort of cost. Even after it's built and put into place, it will still continue to cost something. Nothing in life is free. Even clean air isn't free these days.

 

[karpenter]

And exactly who promised electricity would be free to you.

Where, Exactly, Did I Say It Would Be Free

Are We Trying To Play With Semantics Now ??

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Better than tripling down on dirty subsidized power

Dirty and subsidized? You mean solar?

No I mean coal and oil. They win the awful prize a thousand times over. Coal ash kills. Crude oil kills. The gulf of Mexico is a disaster zone.

No I mean coal and oil.

Coal and oil aren't subsidized, they tax the shit out of them.

They are both subsidized and taxed. It's weird and I'm not sure why off hand. I read that theres a 20b a year mostly direct subsidy and a 200b a year estimated indirect subsidy. My guess is that the extractors and processors get the benefit of the subsidies to keep supply and prices in check at state and federal level then the states go and assess a consumption tax at the pos.

I read that theres a 20b a year mostly direct subsidy and a 200b a year estimated indirect subsidy.

When 3rd world countries subsidize fuel for their citizens, that does nothing to help US producers who are heavily taxed.

Not 3rd world. America.

Which US programs subsidize fossil fuels?

 

[Flash]

The only way that stupid solar and wind energy can compete with fossil fuel is to have massive government subsidies.

It is a Moon Bat's pipe dream.

Morons!