What are the chances Trump will tell us what the REAL unemployment number is?

[AntonToo]

Now that the BLS number is out, like the ones that for months Trump and his cult invariably claimed were doctored, rigged, faked, or something of that sort,

will Trump once again set us straight on how fake the 4.7% number is?

His real number should be what? About 39%? Based on his past 'truth telling'?

It was reported, at 9.2%. That number includes not only those currently collecting unemployment benefits, but also those that have exhausted their benefits and are either still unemployed or underemployed (part time).

Unemployment benefits have ZERO to do with compiling unemployment statistics.

And 9.2% IS NOT what Trump was claiming. He was claiming varying bullshit about unemployment being 20-40%

 

[pinqy]

The 'real' unemployment number is going to be determined according to how those figure it.
Unemployed has always been defined as not working, and looking for work. In 1967 it was tightened up some to specify actually able to start a job if offered one, and actively looked for work in the previous 4 weeks. The definition isn't changed based on who is calculating it.

, but he is absolutely right that the actual unemployment rate is much higher than the official one.

What is "actual unemployment?" Definition, please.

And it is true that a record number of Americans are not working in some capacity, but also a record number of Americans of working age are not working at all and jobs creation has not kept up with new people coming of age and ready to enter the work force.

It's also true that a record number of people are working.

Add those who are working at part time jobs or otherwise at less than what they consider optimum employment and the number probably does approach that 50 some percent the President cited though admittedly many of those are not working by choice, not necessity.

No...there are only about 6 million working part time for economic reasons.

Try these sites who have put some numbers together:

Does the Government Lie About Unemployment?

Accurate for the mechanics. But calling the U-6 "real unemployment?" How on earth is including people who have jobs (some of whom usually work full time) is real unemployment? If a restaurant has a slow week and a waitress works short shifts putting her under 35 hours that week, is she really unemployed?

Real unemployment rate is at least 18 percent

I usually like Peter Morici, but he went off the rails here with some very inventive numbers and assumptions.

[qutote]Jobs: The 'Real' Unemployment Rate Please? Anyone?

Same here. I mean...assuming full time students should really be looking for jobs and so calls them unemployed? Really?

 

[LTCArmyRet]

Now that the BLS number is out, like the ones that for months Trump and his cult invariably claimed were doctored, rigged, faked, or something of that sort,

will Trump once again set us straight on how fake the 4.7% number is?

His real number should be what? About 39%? Based on his past 'truth telling'?

It was reported, at 9.2%. That number includes not only those currently collecting unemployment benefits, but also those that have exhausted their benefits and are either still unemployed or underemployed (part time).

Unemployment benefits have ZERO to do with compiling unemployment statistics.

And 9.2% IS NOT what Trump was claiming. He was claiming varying bullshit about unemployment being 20-40%

If unemployment benefits have nothing to do with compiling job stats, where exactly einstein to you think the data comes from?

 

[bullwinkle]

Trump is the sort of vain egotist who takes all successes, even imagined ones, as due to him alone and someone else will take the blame for failures.

Totally agree. But the news is good. I hope it stands the test of time. America needs it.

 

[pinqy]

Now that the BLS number is out, like the ones that for months Trump and his cult invariably claimed were doctored, rigged, faked, or something of that sort,

will Trump once again set us straight on how fake the 4.7% number is?

His real number should be what? About 39%? Based on his past 'truth telling'?

It was reported, at 9.2%. That number includes not only those currently collecting unemployment benefits, but also those that have exhausted their benefits and are either still unemployed or underemployed (part time).

Unemployment benefits have ZERO to do with compiling unemployment statistics.

And 9.2% IS NOT what Trump was claiming. He was claiming varying bullshit about unemployment being 20-40%

If unemployment benefits have nothing to do with compiling job stats, where exactly einstein to you think the data comes from?

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics How the Government Measures Unemployment:
"Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. In 1994, for instance, the CPS underwent a major redesign in order to computerize the interview process as well as to obtain more comprehensive and relevant information.

There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and independent cities in the country first are grouped into approximately 2,000 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample of about 800 of these geographic areas to represent each state and the District of Columbia. The sample is a state-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each state. "

The definition of Unemployed is:
All persons who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment some time during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. Persons who were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off need not have been looking for work to be classified as unemployed.

 

[Foxfyre]

The 'real' unemployment number is going to be determined according to how those figure it.
Unemployed has always been defined as not working, and looking for work. In 1967 it was tightened up some to specify actually able to start a job if offered one, and actively looked for work in the previous 4 weeks. The definition isn't changed based on who is calculating it.

, but he is absolutely right that the actual unemployment rate is much higher than the official one.

What is "actual unemployment?" Definition, please.

And it is true that a record number of Americans are not working in some capacity, but also a record number of Americans of working age are not working at all and jobs creation has not kept up with new people coming of age and ready to enter the work force.

It's also true that a record number of people are working.

Add those who are working at part time jobs or otherwise at less than what they consider optimum employment and the number probably does approach that 50 some percent the President cited though admittedly many of those are not working by choice, not necessity.

No...there are only about 6 million working part time for economic reasons.

Try these sites who have put some numbers together:

Does the Government Lie About Unemployment?

Accurate for the mechanics. But calling the U-6 "real unemployment?" How on earth is including people who have jobs (some of whom usually work full time) is real unemployment? If a restaurant has a slow week and a waitress works short shifts putting her under 35 hours that week, is she really unemployed?

Real unemployment rate is at least 18 percent

I usually like Peter Morici, but he went off the rails here with some very inventive numbers and assumptions.

[qutote]Jobs: The 'Real' Unemployment Rate Please? Anyone?

Same here. I mean...assuming full time students should really be looking for jobs and so calls them unemployed? Really?

Too difficult to determine who you are quoting here--it appears somebody is responding to my post but it got really messed up in there.

But no, a full time college student would not necessarily be listed among the unemployed UNLESS he/she was one of many many college students who need part time jobs to help with their expenses in college. I worked at some kind of paying job continuously when I was in college as my kids as their scholarships and our helping out always fell short of their actual needs. But between all three income sources, we were able to keep their student loans at a manageable level that they were able to pay off fairly easily once they were out of college.

Nor do we count as unemployed somebody like me who could still be running my business but chose instead to fully retire and enjoy something different.

But I know at least a dozen people personally right now who are adults and not yet ready to retire who are not working at permanent full time jobs and want to be. None are drawing unemployment so they don't count in the official unemployment rate. They do count in the real unemployment rate.

 

[brummelben]

About the same that you would believe him.

How do you believe a serial liar? Trump has proven himself to be one over and over again

 

[AntonToo]

Now that the BLS number is out, like the ones that for months Trump and his cult invariably claimed were doctored, rigged, faked, or something of that sort,

will Trump once again set us straight on how fake the 4.7% number is?

His real number should be what? About 39%? Based on his past 'truth telling'?

It was reported, at 9.2%. That number includes not only those currently collecting unemployment benefits, but also those that have exhausted their benefits and are either still unemployed or underemployed (part time).

Unemployment benefits have ZERO to do with compiling unemployment statistics.

And 9.2% IS NOT what Trump was claiming. He was claiming varying bullshit about unemployment being 20-40%

If unemployment benefits have nothing to do with compiling job stats, where exactly einstein to you think the data comes from?

BLS conducts Household surveys.

You don't need to be an Einstein to know, you need to simply know how to do basic google search.

Here, let me show you how you would do that:

Click me to learn how to google sht

 

[LoneLaugher]

Now that the BLS number is out, like the ones that for months Trump and his cult invariably claimed were doctored, rigged, faked, or something of that sort,

will Trump once again set us straight on how fake the 4.7% number is?

His real number should be what? About 39%? Based on his past 'truth telling'?

Spicer just said that Trump now trusts the 4.7% number. He had a nice laugh.

 

[AntonToo]

Now that the BLS number is out, like the ones that for months Trump and his cult invariably claimed were doctored, rigged, faked, or something of that sort,

will Trump once again set us straight on how fake the 4.7% number is?

His real number should be what? About 39%? Based on his past 'truth telling'?

Spicer just said that Trump now trusts the 4.7% number. He had a nice laugh.

The laugh was of course at the expense of Trumpster dupes.

 

[pinqy]

Too difficult to determine who you are quoting here--it appears somebody is responding to my post but it got really messed up in there.

Yeah, I mistyped on one of the quote tags.

But no, a full time college student would not necessarily be listed among the unemployed UNLESS he/she was one of many many college students who need part time jobs to help with their expenses in college. I worked at some kind of paying job continuously when I was in college as my kids as their scholarships and our helping out always fell short of their actual needs. But between all three income sources, we were able to keep their student loans at a manageable level that they were able to pay off fairly easily once they were out of college.

Need has nothing to do with it....work activity takes precedence, so if someone is looking for work, s/he is unemployed regardless of whether or not they're students or retired. An exception would be if a student is looking for a post-student job and is looking now for a job starting in May or June. S/he would not be considered unemployed because they're not available for work now.

Nor do we count as unemployed somebody like me who could still be running my business but chose instead to fully retire and enjoy something different.

Correct...a lot of those claiming "real unemployment rate" are including people who don't want/need a job.

But I know at least a dozen people personally right now who are adults and not yet ready to retire who are not working at permanent full time jobs and want to be. None are drawing unemployment so they don't count in the official unemployment rate.

Huh? The official unemployment rate is not based on unemployment insurance benefits. If you are looking for a job and are available to start now, then you are unemployed. Doesn't matter if you've ever had or applied for benefits or if you ever had a job.

 

[LTCArmyRet]

Now that the BLS number is out, like the ones that for months Trump and his cult invariably claimed were doctored, rigged, faked, or something of that sort,

will Trump once again set us straight on how fake the 4.7% number is?

His real number should be what? About 39%? Based on his past 'truth telling'?

It was reported, at 9.2%. That number includes not only those currently collecting unemployment benefits, but also those that have exhausted their benefits and are either still unemployed or underemployed (part time).

Unemployment benefits have ZERO to do with compiling unemployment statistics.

And 9.2% IS NOT what Trump was claiming. He was claiming varying bullshit about unemployment being 20-40%

If unemployment benefits have nothing to do with compiling job stats, where exactly einstein to you think the data comes from?

BLS conducts Household surveys.

You don't need to be an Einstein to know, you need to simply know how to do basic google search.

Here, let me show you how you would do that:

Click me to learn how to google sht

You definitely need to be more of an Einstein to understand something beyond your google search technique, and yes, reports from unemployment claims are used moron......

The Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), or "Payroll Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 160,000 businesses and government agencies that represent 400,000 individual employers.[38] This survey measures only civilian nonagricultural employment; thus, it does not calculate an unemployment rate, and it differs from the ILO unemployment rate definition. These two sources have different classification criteria, and usually produce differing results. Additional data are also available from the government, such as the unemployment insurance weekly claims report available from the Office of Workforce Security, within the U.S. Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration.[39] The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides up-to-date numbers via a PDF linked here.[40] The BLS also provides a readable concise current Employment Situation Summary, updated monthly.[4


It is not the sole basis of the reported rate, but it is used to compute the ESTIMATED AGGREGATE. Yes, UE rates are ESTIMATED and therefore are most likely manipulated.

 

[AntonToo]

Now that the BLS number is out, like the ones that for months Trump and his cult invariably claimed were doctored, rigged, faked, or something of that sort,

will Trump once again set us straight on how fake the 4.7% number is?

His real number should be what? About 39%? Based on his past 'truth telling'?

It was reported, at 9.2%. That number includes not only those currently collecting unemployment benefits, but also those that have exhausted their benefits and are either still unemployed or underemployed (part time).

Unemployment benefits have ZERO to do with compiling unemployment statistics.

And 9.2% IS NOT what Trump was claiming. He was claiming varying bullshit about unemployment being 20-40%

If unemployment benefits have nothing to do with compiling job stats, where exactly einstein to you think the data comes from?

BLS conducts Household surveys.

You don't need to be an Einstein to know, you need to simply know how to do basic google search.

Here, let me show you how you would do that:

Click me to learn how to google sht

You definitely need to be more of an Einstein to understand something beyond your google search technique, as yes, reports from unemployment claims are used moron......

The Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), or "Payroll Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 160,000 businesses and government agencies that represent 400,000 individual employers.[38] This survey measures only civilian nonagricultural employment; thus, it does not calculate an unemployment rate, and it differs from the ILO unemployment rate definition. These two sources have different classification criteria, and usually produce differing results. Additional data are also available from the government, such as the unemployment insurance weekly claims report available from the Office of Workforce Security, within the U.S. Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration.[39] The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides up-to-date numbers via a PDF linked here.[40] The BLS also provides a readable concise current Employment Situation Summary, updated monthly.[4

You need to stop trying to salvage a bad position you took for bad reasons.

Yes there is a SEPARATE report of unemployment insurance claims, but has nothing to do with unemployment numbers commonly used, including number used in the original post of yours I responded to.

 

[pinqy]

Now that the BLS number is out, like the ones that for months Trump and his cult invariably claimed were doctored, rigged, faked, or something of that sort,

will Trump once again set us straight on how fake the 4.7% number is?

His real number should be what? About 39%? Based on his past 'truth telling'?

It was reported, at 9.2%. That number includes not only those currently collecting unemployment benefits, but also those that have exhausted their benefits and are either still unemployed or underemployed (part time).

Unemployment benefits have ZERO to do with compiling unemployment statistics.

And 9.2% IS NOT what Trump was claiming. He was claiming varying bullshit about unemployment being 20-40%

If unemployment benefits have nothing to do with compiling job stats, where exactly einstein to you think the data comes from?

BLS conducts Household surveys.

You don't need to be an Einstein to know, you need to simply know how to do basic google search.

Here, let me show you how you would do that:

Click me to learn how to google sht

You definitely need to be more of an Einstein to understand something beyond your google search technique, and yes, reports from unemployment claims are used moron......

The Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), or "Payroll Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 160,000 businesses and government agencies that represent 400,000 individual employers.[38] This survey measures only civilian nonagricultural employment; thus, it does not calculate an unemployment rate, and it differs from the ILO unemployment rate definition. These two sources have different classification criteria, and usually produce differing results. Additional data are also available from the government, such as the unemployment insurance weekly claims report available from the Office of Workforce Security, within the U.S. Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration.[39] The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides up-to-date numbers via a PDF linked here.[40] The BLS also provides a readable concise current Employment Situation Summary, updated monthly.[4


It is not the sole basis of the reported rate, but it is used to compute the ESTIMATED AGGREGATE. Yes, UE rates are ESTIMATED and therefore are most likely manipulated.

Let's be as clear as possible: Employment Situation Technical Note
The household survey provides information on the labor force, employment, and unemployment that appears in the "A" tables, marked HOUSEHOLD DATA. It is a sample survey of about 60,000 eligible households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)....
People are classified as unemployed if they meet all of the following criteria: they had no employment during the reference week; they were available for work at that time; and they made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. Persons laid off from a job and expecting recall need not be looking for work to be counted as unemployed. The unemployment data derived from the household survey in no way depend upon the eligibility for or receipt of unemployment insurance benefits.

Of course the numbers are an estimate...do you think we could run a full census every month?

 

[LTCArmyRet]

It was reported, at 9.2%. That number includes not only those currently collecting unemployment benefits, but also those that have exhausted their benefits and are either still unemployed or underemployed (part time).

Unemployment benefits have ZERO to do with compiling unemployment statistics.

And 9.2% IS NOT what Trump was claiming. He was claiming varying bullshit about unemployment being 20-40%

If unemployment benefits have nothing to do with compiling job stats, where exactly einstein to you think the data comes from?

BLS conducts Household surveys.

You don't need to be an Einstein to know, you need to simply know how to do basic google search.

Here, let me show you how you would do that:

Click me to learn how to google sht

You definitely need to be more of an Einstein to understand something beyond your google search technique, as yes, reports from unemployment claims are used moron......

The Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), or "Payroll Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 160,000 businesses and government agencies that represent 400,000 individual employers.[38] This survey measures only civilian nonagricultural employment; thus, it does not calculate an unemployment rate, and it differs from the ILO unemployment rate definition. These two sources have different classification criteria, and usually produce differing results. Additional data are also available from the government, such as the unemployment insurance weekly claims report available from the Office of Workforce Security, within the U.S. Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration.[39] The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides up-to-date numbers via a PDF linked here.[40] The BLS also provides a readable concise current Employment Situation Summary, updated monthly.[4

You need to stop trying to salvage a bad position you took for bad reasons.

Yes there is a SEPARATE report of unemployment insurance claims, but has nothing to do with unemployment numbers commonly used, including number used in the original post of yours I responded to.

I don't need to salvage anything, you just can't admit when you are wrong. You stated that unemployment rates reported do not include statistics from benefits claims, which it does. Do you work in the BLS? I doubt it.

 

[AsianTrumpSupporter]

100% chance:

Trump: Past ‘phony’ jobs numbers now ‘very real’

 

[AntonToo]

Unemployment benefits have ZERO to do with compiling unemployment statistics.

And 9.2% IS NOT what Trump was claiming. He was claiming varying bullshit about unemployment being 20-40%

If unemployment benefits have nothing to do with compiling job stats, where exactly einstein to you think the data comes from?

BLS conducts Household surveys.

You don't need to be an Einstein to know, you need to simply know how to do basic google search.

Here, let me show you how you would do that:

Click me to learn how to google sht

You definitely need to be more of an Einstein to understand something beyond your google search technique, as yes, reports from unemployment claims are used moron......

The Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), or "Payroll Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 160,000 businesses and government agencies that represent 400,000 individual employers.[38] This survey measures only civilian nonagricultural employment; thus, it does not calculate an unemployment rate, and it differs from the ILO unemployment rate definition. These two sources have different classification criteria, and usually produce differing results. Additional data are also available from the government, such as the unemployment insurance weekly claims report available from the Office of Workforce Security, within the U.S. Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration.[39] The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides up-to-date numbers via a PDF linked here.[40] The BLS also provides a readable concise current Employment Situation Summary, updated monthly.[4

You need to stop trying to salvage a bad position you took for bad reasons.

Yes there is a SEPARATE report of unemployment insurance claims, but has nothing to do with unemployment numbers commonly used, including number used in the original post of yours I responded to.

I don't need to salvage anything, you just can't admit when you are wrong. You stated that unemployment rates reported do not include statistics from benefits claims, which it does. Do you work in the BLS? I doubt it.

You are pathetic.

9.2% unemployment statistic (aka U6) you cited is not based on unemployment benefits. THE END.

 

[Marion Morrison]

Now that the BLS number is out, like the ones that for months Trump and his cult invariably claimed were doctored, rigged, faked, or something of that sort,

will Trump once again set us straight on how fake the 4.7% number is?

His real number should be what? About 39%? Based on his past 'truth telling'?

I would like to see the unemployment numbers get "unskewed". That way at least you know where you're really at for a baseline.

 

[LTCArmyRet]

It was reported, at 9.2%. That number includes not only those currently collecting unemployment benefits, but also those that have exhausted their benefits and are either still unemployed or underemployed (part time).

Unemployment benefits have ZERO to do with compiling unemployment statistics.

And 9.2% IS NOT what Trump was claiming. He was claiming varying bullshit about unemployment being 20-40%

If unemployment benefits have nothing to do with compiling job stats, where exactly einstein to you think the data comes from?

BLS conducts Household surveys.

You don't need to be an Einstein to know, you need to simply know how to do basic google search.

Here, let me show you how you would do that:

Click me to learn how to google sht

You definitely need to be more of an Einstein to understand something beyond your google search technique, and yes, reports from unemployment claims are used moron......

The Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), or "Payroll Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 160,000 businesses and government agencies that represent 400,000 individual employers.[38] This survey measures only civilian nonagricultural employment; thus, it does not calculate an unemployment rate, and it differs from the ILO unemployment rate definition. These two sources have different classification criteria, and usually produce differing results. Additional data are also available from the government, such as the unemployment insurance weekly claims report available from the Office of Workforce Security, within the U.S. Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration.[39] The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides up-to-date numbers via a PDF linked here.[40] The BLS also provides a readable concise current Employment Situation Summary, updated monthly.[4


It is not the sole basis of the reported rate, but it is used to compute the ESTIMATED AGGREGATE. Yes, UE rates are ESTIMATED and therefore are most likely manipulated.

Let's be as clear as possible: Employment Situation Technical Note
The household survey provides information on the labor force, employment, and unemployment that appears in the "A" tables, marked HOUSEHOLD DATA. It is a sample survey of about 60,000 eligible households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)....
People are classified as unemployed if they meet all of the following criteria: they had no employment during the reference week; they were available for work at that time; and they made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. Persons laid off from a job and expecting recall need not be looking for work to be counted as unemployed. The unemployment data derived from the household survey in no way depend upon the eligibility for or receipt of unemployment insurance benefits.

Of course the numbers are an estimate...do you think we could run a full census every month?

This is the U3 rate, which is highly subjective. I've been in the workforce for over 30 years and never once have I been called for this "survey". While it is probably more accurate than the polls that said Hilliary would be our president right now, the more accurate rate calculated by the BLS is the U6 rate, which does use state unemployment benefit claims as part of the calculations. That was reported today at 9.2%, not the 4.7% U3. Have you ever been called?

 

[AntonToo]

100% chance:

Trump: Past ‘phony’ jobs numbers now ‘very real’

“[Trump] said to quote him very clearly: ‘They may have been phony in the past, but it’s very real now,’” Spicer said with a laugh at his daily briefing for reporters.


Wow these fucking asswipe clowns are entirely without even a drop shame.