Where's the evidence of 15 years of temperature stagnation?

[Freewill]

Well you are right it makes a difference in the numbers but not that much. If you do the continential US 12 months the trend is -0.14 and if annual -36. The only reason I used 1998 is that it is the date that is most used.

Doing so yields the following:

Inputting 1998 annual yields:

Dates Value Rank Anomaly (53.42°F)
1998-2013 Base Period

199801 - 199812 54.23°F 14 0.81°F
199901 - 199912 53.88°F 13 0.46°F
200001 - 200012 53.27°F 9 -0.15°F
200101 - 200112 53.70°F 12 0.28°F
200201 - 200212 53.21°F 7 -0.21°F
200301 - 200312 53.26°F 8 -0.16°F
200401 - 200412 53.10°F 5 -0.32°F
200501 - 200512 53.64°F 10 0.22°F
200601 - 200612 54.25°F 15 0.83°F
200701 - 200712 53.65°F 11 0.23°F
200801 - 200812 52.29°F 1 -1.13°F
200901 - 200912 52.39°F 2 -1.03°F
201001 - 201012 52.98°F 4 -0.44°F
201101 - 201112 53.18°F 6 -0.24°F
201201 - 201212 55.28°F 16 1.86°F
201301 - 201312 52.43°F 3 -0.99°F
Which yields a trend for the C. US of -0.36 oF/decade


Dates Value Rank Anomaly (53.37°F)
1999-2013 Base Period

199901 - 199912 53.88°F 13 0.51°F
200001 - 200012 53.27°F 9 -0.10°F
200101 - 200112 53.70°F 12 0.33°F
200201 - 200212 53.21°F 7 -0.16°F
200301 - 200312 53.26°F 8 -0.11°F
200401 - 200412 53.10°F 5 -0.27°F
200501 - 200512 53.64°F 10 0.27°F
200601 - 200612 54.25°F 14 0.88°F
200701 - 200712 53.65°F 11 0.28°F
200801 - 200812 52.29°F 1 -1.08°F
200901 - 200912 52.39°F 2 -0.98°F
201001 - 201012 52.98°F 4 -0.39°F
201101 - 201112 53.18°F 6 -0.19°F
201201 - 201212 55.28°F 15 1.91°F
201301 - 201312 52.43°F 3 -0.94°F
For a trend of -0.21 oF/decade

So now we should be on the same page, my fault not realizing there was an annual selection and that 12 months would be different. So can you imagine if the - trend were a + trend by the same numbers? My gosh they would be screaming that we all were about to die.

BTW can we throw out the clear 2012 outlier with 1998? Or should we just go with the numbers?

BTW2, 1998 + 15 = 2013

 

[JoeNormal]

In a thread titled something like "More Good News on the Global Temperature Front", a conservative talking point was brought up that now appears to be widely accepted. It's that global temperatures haven't risen for the last 15 years. In that thread, the following NCDC site was given as evidence:

Climate at a Glance | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Visually, the chart that is shown certainly seems to have risen in the last 15 years but all doubt is removed if you select years 1999 - 2014 and click the 'Display Trend' button.

So where did this erroneous notion come from that temperatures haven't risen in 15 years?

Here it is, moron:

BTW, the NCDC has been caught doctoring its data so flagrantly that you have to be terminally gullible to accept anything they claim.

Tell that to Freewill, he's the one who posted it.

 

[JoeNormal]

2001 wasn't an outlier. In fact, its the exact same temperatures as 2003, which you insist we include. Nor was 2000 an outlier. As we saw something similar in 2004 and 2008, both of which you insist we include. You're omitting them 'just because'.

And if the question is 'has the temperature gone up in the last 15 years', I'd go back 15 years and check. And we have an ascending trendline. Even if we inexplicably lop off 2000 and 2001 'just because', we still have an ascending trendline.

Look at them in 5 year chunks and it gets even more stark. From 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003, the average was 0.54. For 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014, the average is 0.67. A nearly 25% increase in land and sea temperature anomalies. But the temperature is flat, huh?

Go back to say, 1990, and it gets even more stark. 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, and 1994, the average is 0.35. That's an astonishing 91% increase in land and sea anomalies.

Go back to 1980, and wow. 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, and 1984.....and the average anomoly is 0.26. With our last 5 year average about 2 and half times higher.

There's a reason why 97% of publishing earth scientists are on one side of this issue; the evidence is pretty damn clear.

Oh, and if you hear a 'skeptic' tell you that our temperature has been flat since 1998, what they *actually* mean is that we had a temperature spike in 1998, going from .035 in 1995 to 0.39 in 1996 to 0.43 in 1997, to a whopping 0.67 in 1998, back down to a 0.41 in 1999.

1998 was an outlier. And a pretty stark one. It was the largest anomoly we'd ever recorded. Here's the scary part:

The temperature has increased so much, that our 5 year AVERAGE from 2010 to 2014 is now at almost exactly at the same place now the 'largest anomoly ever recorded' in 1998. 0.72 in 2010, 0.54 in 2011, 0.68 in 2012, 0.66 in 2013 and 0.74 so far in 2014.

Which the 'skeptics' know perfectly well. But really hope you don't.

I had never even considered the possibility that the supposed temperature increase flattening was a comparison of 1998 with today but I think you're on to something. Holy crap, these guys are even more simple minded than i thought.

Holy crap can you be more disingenuous??? Your subject line said 15 years and now you claim your ignorance. You have been shown, you ignore, typical fearist.

Just tell me the magic set of dates i have to use on the site you posted originally to make it come out as if there hasn't been any warming.

 

[Freewill]

I had never even considered the possibility that the supposed temperature increase flattening was a comparison of 1998 with today but I think you're on to something. Holy crap, these guys are even more simple minded than i thought.

Holy crap can you be more disingenuous??? Your subject line said 15 years and now you claim your ignorance. You have been shown, you ignore, typical fearist.

Just tell me the magic set of dates i have to use on the site you posted originally to make it come out as if there hasn't been any warming.

Do the continental US it has not warmed since 1998, after all isn't that the argument? As for global the rise does not seem very significant and I am not sure how the US can go down so much but the world go up even the little that they do. The information has been provided to you in several posts the latest the most correct. US CO2 emissions down and going down, and temperature down and going down, what should make you happier?

 

[JoeNormal]

Joe shows us the experiment. You know, the one that shows how a 120PPM increase in CO2 simultaneously raises temperature by 1-8 degrees and lowers ocean pH from 8.25 to 8.15

Go!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wi8Fv0AJA4

The 'experiment' would have to be the size of the Earth and is currently being performed by industrialized countries around the world.

How are the isolating the independent variables?

Ok, i get it now. How are THEY isolating the independent variables?

Maybe you could specify which independent variable but in general, you keep everything the same except for the variable in question - except when you're doing multivariate analysis. That's not what they want though, is it. They want a single tidy lab experiment that shows that a rise of 120 PPM will cause a rise of 2 degrees C.

I love Fox News unanswerable questions. They're such convenient talking points.

 

[JoeNormal]

Holy crap can you be more disingenuous??? Your subject line said 15 years and now you claim your ignorance. You have been shown, you ignore, typical fearist.

Just tell me the magic set of dates i have to use on the site you posted originally to make it come out as if there hasn't been any warming.

Do the continental US it has not warmed since 1998, after all isn't that the argument? As for global the rise does not seem very significant and I am not sure how the US can go down so much but the world go up even the little that they do. The information has been provided to you in several posts the latest the most correct. US CO2 emissions down and going down, and temperature down and going down, what should make you happier?

I guess i'll have to check when I get back to work because my iPad refuses to display the chart. However, when i hear that global temperature has not increased for 15 years, I don't think of just the US.

 

[bripat9643]

The 'experiment' would have to be the size of the Earth and is currently being performed by industrialized countries around the world.

How are the isolating the independent variables?

Ok, i get it now. How are THEY isolating the independent variables?

Maybe you could specify which independent variable but in general, you keep everything the same except for the variable in question - except when you're doing multivariate analysis. That's not what they want though, is it. They want a single tidy lab experiment that shows that a rise of 120 PPM will cause a rise of 2 degrees C.

I love Fox News unanswerable questions. They're such convenient talking points.

The fact that they can't do it doesn't mean you get to make things up. That's kind of like Christians using the argument that because science can't explain some natural phenomenon, then God must be responsible.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

Let's not forget that AGW alarmists believe the earth was created in 1880.
Considering that the issue is political is another pretty clear sign we're not talking about real science here.

 

[edthecynic]

Let's not forget that AGW alarmists believe the earth was created in 1880.
Considering that the issue is political is another pretty clear sign we're not talking about real science here.

No, they know that 1880 is the beginning of the history of DIRECT INSTRUMENT MEASUREMENTS, before then you had to rely on unreliable PROXY data. Deniers depend on unreliable data so they reject instrument data for proxy data, but accept only proxy data that supports their claims since proxy data is all over the place and contradicts itself everywhere.

 

[edthecynic]

In a thread titled something like "More Good News on the Global Temperature Front", a conservative talking point was brought up that now appears to be widely accepted. It's that global temperatures haven't risen for the last 15 years. In that thread, the following NCDC site was given as evidence:

Climate at a Glance | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Visually, the chart that is shown certainly seems to have risen in the last 15 years but all doubt is removed if you select years 1999 - 2014 and click the 'Display Trend' button.

So where did this erroneous notion come from that temperatures haven't risen in 15 years?

Here it is, moron:

BTW, the NCDC has been caught doctoring its data so flagrantly that you have to be terminally gullible to accept anything they claim.

And so the denier posts a fake chart from WhatsUpWithThat

Here is the actual trend for the last 17 years and 6 months:

Climate at a Glance | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)