Who to Believe in Coronavirus War of Words

[Hutch Starskey]

A few days ago we had only about 1,300 confirmed cases and today we have 18,459 confirmed cases.

What do you mean by "confirmed cases?" Testing positive? Which is growing faster, the number of cases or the number of tests?

For example, let's say 10% of the population carries the virus. The first week, 10 people are tested and 1 tests positive. The next week 100 people are tested and 10 test positive. Does that mean that the number of people carrying the virus has increased tenfold? Of course not.

Roughly 100k total tests.
Going on 19k confirmed cases or positive results.

 

[beagle9]

There are way too many conflicting reports. Trump is right to have Pence as the go to guy for Coronavirus updates. All others should stay in the shadows since they are only making things more confusing.

---As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week, marking a “pretty dramatic” increase in the number of confirmed cases, the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday.---

This prediction would indeed be a dramatic increase and is therefore hard to believe.

NIH director: 70K coronavirus cases could be confirmed in US by end of next week

It's not hard to believe at all.
It's called exponential growth.

Each infected person not distancing infects on average 2-3 people.
View attachment 313685
Incubation period is up to two weeks. That means those who present with symptoms in two weeks are already infected now but don't know it. Without proper social distancing, those people are infecting more and more people every day.

Hmmm, but let me throw this out there then, are their groups of people who break the cycle, and therefore are not infected when they come in contact with it or after they contact it they kill it in their own system ??

Talking about the thing on a chart as if the chain isn't broken in any way, either naturally by stronger immune systems, and/or maybe by these A symptomatic humans carrying it who are weakening it down over time maybe ?? Otherwise as the immune system figures it out could that also be the case where it breaks the chains ??? It is a little bit misguided isn't it to use charts in this way or is it not ??

In some cases the chain won't even start beyond the one who kills the virus dead within his or her system, and therefore breaks the infection chain at that point for thousands who could have been infected as a result of the carrier.

So in summary can it be looked at as if the chain is being broken here and there, and thus less people are infected in the chains because they are being broken ? Does the virus weaken by going through the human system in which of course has a system that detunes the virus over time ??

 

[OldLady]

There are way too many conflicting reports. Trump is right to have Pence as the go to guy for Coronavirus updates. All others should stay in the shadows since they are only making things more confusing.

---As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week, marking a “pretty dramatic” increase in the number of confirmed cases, the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday.---

This prediction would indeed be a dramatic increase and is therefore hard to believe.

NIH director: 70K coronavirus cases could be confirmed in US by end of next week

It's not hard to believe at all.
It's called exponential growth.

Each infected person not distancing infects on average 2-3 people.
View attachment 313685
Incubation period is up to two weeks. That means those who present with symptoms in two weeks are already infected now but don't know it. Without proper social distancing, those people are infecting more and more people every day.

I heard researchers from the UK on NPR a couple days ago say that they believe asymptomatic spread is only for 24 hours prior to getting sick. They are still figuring things out; but that's what they said. That's good news if it's right.

 

[B. Kidd]

There are way too many conflicting reports. Trump is right to have Pence as the go to guy for Coronavirus updates. All others should stay in the shadows since they are only making things more confusing.

---As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week, marking a “pretty dramatic” increase in the number of confirmed cases, the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday.---

This prediction would indeed be a dramatic increase and is therefore hard to believe.

NIH director: 70K coronavirus cases could be confirmed in US by end of next week

It's not hard to believe at all.
It's called exponential growth.

Each infected person not distancing infects on average 2-3 people.
View attachment 313685
Incubation period is up to two weeks. That means those who present with symptoms in two weeks are already infected now but don't know it. Without proper social distancing, those people are infecting more and more people every day.

Hmmm, but let me throw this out there then, are their groups of people who break the cycle, and therefore are not infected when they come in contact with it or after they contact it they kill it in their own system ??

Talking about the thing on a chart as if the chain isn't broken in any way, either naturally by stronger immune systems, and/or maybe by these A symptomatic humans carrying it who are weakening it down over time maybe ?? Otherwise as the immune system figures it out could that also be the case where it breaks the chains ??? It is a little bit misguided isn't it to use charts in this way or is it not ??

In some cases the chain won't even start beyond the one who kills the virus dead within his or her system, and therefore breaks the infection chain at that point for thousands who could have been infected as a result of the carrier.

So in summary can it be looked at as if the chain is being broken here and there, and thus less people are infected in the chains because they are being broken ? Does the virus weaken by going through the human system in which of course has a system that detunes the virus over time ??

Bioweapons are tricky. They don't imitate nature's normal course.
This is what we are really dealing with!

 

[Hutch Starskey]

There are way too many conflicting reports. Trump is right to have Pence as the go to guy for Coronavirus updates. All others should stay in the shadows since they are only making things more confusing.

---As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week, marking a “pretty dramatic” increase in the number of confirmed cases, the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday.---

This prediction would indeed be a dramatic increase and is therefore hard to believe.

NIH director: 70K coronavirus cases could be confirmed in US by end of next week

It's not hard to believe at all.
It's called exponential growth.

Each infected person not distancing infects on average 2-3 people.
View attachment 313685
Incubation period is up to two weeks. That means those who present with symptoms in two weeks are already infected now but don't know it. Without proper social distancing, those people are infecting more and more people every day.

I heard researchers from the UK on NPR a couple days ago say that they believe asymptomatic spread is only for 24 hours prior to getting sick. They are still figuring things out; but that's what they said. That's good news if it's right.

That would be great news. Although many have very mild or no symptoms at all. That also might mean though that quite a few people are walking around with symptoms and don't just don't care.

 

[beagle9]

The people that are cavalier about this don’t understand what we’re dealing with. This will be the number 1 cause of death this year by a wide margin

Cavalier or just trapped, and then thinking "hey no sense to worry", because it don't do me any good to worry anyways ? I must go on because I don't have the resources not to go on could be the mood out there by many. Then you have CEOs/management's driving other sectors or people who are expected to go on regardless of what anyone else says otherwise about it. A balance will be kept I guess, but there will be winners and losers sadly enough.

 

[ReinyDays]

The more people we test the more confirmed cases there will be. The death rate is expected to be very high at first because the very sick people are being tested first. The death rate figures are expected to peak at 4%, and then drop down to 2% when it levels off. 2% is 10 times more deadly than the flue and exponentially more contagious of a virus

Where are you getting this information and why should we believe it? ...

10 times more deadly than the flu just sounds like hyperbole ... your evidence doesn't support your statistical trickery ...

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu." during the 2019-2020 season {Cite} ... and this was a moderate year for the flu ... I'm not saying we should ignore the Corvid-19 epidemic ... but are you really expecting 230,000 deaths in the USA alone? ...

 

[beagle9]

There are way too many conflicting reports. Trump is right to have Pence as the go to guy for Coronavirus updates. All others should stay in the shadows since they are only making things more confusing.

---As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week, marking a “pretty dramatic” increase in the number of confirmed cases, the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday.---

This prediction would indeed be a dramatic increase and is therefore hard to believe.

NIH director: 70K coronavirus cases could be confirmed in US by end of next week

It's not hard to believe at all.
It's called exponential growth.

Each infected person not distancing infects on average 2-3 people.
View attachment 313685
Incubation period is up to two weeks. That means those who present with symptoms in two weeks are already infected now but don't know it. Without proper social distancing, those people are infecting more and more people every day.

Hmmm, but let me throw this out there then, are their groups of people who break the cycle, and therefore are not infected when they come in contact with it or after they contact it they kill it in their own system ??

Talking about the thing on a chart as if the chain isn't broken in any way, either naturally by stronger immune systems, and/or maybe by these A symptomatic humans carrying it who are weakening it down over time maybe ?? Otherwise as the immune system figures it out could that also be the case where it breaks the chains ??? It is a little bit misguided isn't it to use charts in this way or is it not ??

In some cases the chain won't even start beyond the one who kills the virus dead within his or her system, and therefore breaks the infection chain at that point for thousands who could have been infected as a result of the carrier.

So in summary can it be looked at as if the chain is being broken here and there, and thus less people are infected in the chains because they are being broken ? Does the virus weaken by going through the human system in which of course has a system that detunes the virus over time ??

Bioweapons are tricky. They don't imitate nature's normal course.
This is what we are really dealing with!

If a bio weapon, we need to know that.

 

[occupied]

A few days ago we had only about 1,300 confirmed cases and today we have 18,459 confirmed cases.

What do you mean by "confirmed cases?" Testing positive? Which is growing faster, the number of cases or the number of tests?

For example, let's say 10% of the population carries the virus. The first week, 10 people are tested and 1 tests positive. The next week 100 people are tested and 10 test positive. Does that mean that the number of people carrying the virus has increased tenfold? Of course not.

Your example, if graphed, describes a steady line rather than the natural progression curve that all communicable diseases follow. You were right think of it as a ratio but only at the very peak of the pandemic would the ratio of negatives and positives remain unchanged from one week to the next. We are nowhere near the peak yet.

 

[Bruce_T_Laney]

There are way too many conflicting reports. Trump is right to have Pence as the go to guy for Coronavirus updates. All others should stay in the shadows since they are only making things more confusing.

---As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week, marking a “pretty dramatic” increase in the number of confirmed cases, the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday.---

This prediction would indeed be a dramatic increase and is therefore hard to believe.

NIH director: 70K coronavirus cases could be confirmed in US by end of next week

Yeah, I've been hearing some scary numbers. I hope to God they are wrong.

Let's come back next week and see.

"If we're still here!"

Most of will be unless you are sick with some type of condition or farting mummy dust...

If neither one of them well then you will feel sick, and get better...

So most will survive...

 

[Rocko]

The more people we test the more confirmed cases there will be. The death rate is expected to be very high at first because the very sick people are being tested first. The death rate figures are expected to peak at 4%, and then drop down to 2% when it levels off. 2% is 10 times more deadly than the flue and exponentially more contagious of a virus

Where are you getting this information and why should we believe it? ...

10 times more deadly than the flu just sounds like hyperbole ... your evidence doesn't support your statistical trickery ...

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu." during the 2019-2020 season {Cite} ... and this was a moderate year for the flu ... I'm not saying we should ignore the Corvid-19 epidemic ... but are you really expecting 230,000 deaths in the USA alone? ...

Oh no not 230k, more than a million. Sorry to say

 

[jwoodie]

A few days ago we had only about 1,300 confirmed cases and today we have 18,459 confirmed cases.

What do you mean by "confirmed cases?" Testing positive? Which is growing faster, the number of cases or the number of tests?

For example, let's say 10% of the population carries the virus. The first week, 10 people are tested and 1 tests positive. The next week 100 people are tested and 10 test positive. Does that mean that the number of people carrying the virus has increased tenfold? Of course not.

Roughly 100k total tests.
Going on 19k confirmed cases or positive results.

So what does that prove, other than 19% of those tested were positive? People without symptoms are being told not to get tested, so any projections based on selective test results are inherently suspect.

P.S. How many of the 19k testing positive are "confirmed cases?"

 

[toomuchtime_]

A few days ago we had only about 1,300 confirmed cases and today we have 18,459 confirmed cases.

What do you mean by "confirmed cases?" Testing positive? Which is growing faster, the number of cases or the number of tests?

For example, let's say 10% of the population carries the virus. The first week, 10 people are tested and 1 tests positive. The next week 100 people are tested and 10 test positive. Does that mean that the number of people carrying the virus has increased tenfold? Of course not.

Confirmed cases means the CDC has confirmed a positive test result sent to them. Before the test result is confirmed by the CDC it is called presumed positive.

You are assuming the percent of the population that is infected will remain stable, but not only isn't there any basis for that assumption, but the fact that this virus is several times more contagious than the flu makes that assumption very unlikely. Since only people who are showing signs of a possible infection are being tested and the majority of people infected will experience only mild symptoms, it is likely these people will not be tested and the number of infected people and the rate of spread is probably higher than the number of confirmed cases would suggest.

 

[occupied]

There are way too many conflicting reports. Trump is right to have Pence as the go to guy for Coronavirus updates. All others should stay in the shadows since they are only making things more confusing.

---As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week, marking a “pretty dramatic” increase in the number of confirmed cases, the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday.---

This prediction would indeed be a dramatic increase and is therefore hard to believe.

NIH director: 70K coronavirus cases could be confirmed in US by end of next week

It's not hard to believe at all.
It's called exponential growth.

Each infected person not distancing infects on average 2-3 people.
View attachment 313685
Incubation period is up to two weeks. That means those who present with symptoms in two weeks are already infected now but don't know it. Without proper social distancing, those people are infecting more and more people every day.

Hmmm, but let me throw this out there then, are their groups of people who break the cycle, and therefore are not infected when they come in contact with it or after they contact it they kill it in their own system ??

Talking about the thing on a chart as if the chain isn't broken in any way, either naturally by stronger immune systems, and/or maybe by these A symptomatic humans carrying it who are weakening it down over time maybe ?? Otherwise as the immune system figures it out could that also be the case where it breaks the chains ??? It is a little bit misguided isn't it to use charts in this way or is it not ??

In some cases the chain won't even start beyond the one who kills the virus dead within his or her system, and therefore breaks the infection chain at that point for thousands who could have been infected as a result of the carrier.

So in summary can it be looked at as if the chain is being broken here and there, and thus less people are infected in the chains because they are being broken ? Does the virus weaken by going through the human system in which of course has a system that detunes the virus over time ??

Bioweapons are tricky. They don't imitate nature's normal course.
This is what we are really dealing with!

If a bio weapon, we need to know that.

We already know that. It's a naturally occurring virus that jumped host species. The genome has been mapped and there is nothing there that suggests any sort of alteration. Real bio-weapons have three qualities that give them away. They are absurdly deadly. They cannot be passed from person to person. An effective vaccine exists. Remember the still unexplained anthrax attacks after 9/11? Like that.

 

[skews13]

who cares?

 

[toomuchtime_]

A few days ago we had only about 1,300 confirmed cases and today we have 18,459 confirmed cases.

What do you mean by "confirmed cases?" Testing positive? Which is growing faster, the number of cases or the number of tests?

The more people we test the more confirmed cases there will be. The death rate is expected to be very high at first because the very sick people are being tested first. The death rate figures are expected to peak at 4%, and then drop down to 2% when it levels off. 2% is 10 times more deadly than the flue and exponentially more contagious of a virus

Presently the mortality rate for confirmed cases is about 1.3% in the US.

 

[Rocko]

A few days ago we had only about 1,300 confirmed cases and today we have 18,459 confirmed cases.

What do you mean by "confirmed cases?" Testing positive? Which is growing faster, the number of cases or the number of tests?

The more people we test the more confirmed cases there will be. The death rate is expected to be very high at first because the very sick people are being tested first. The death rate figures are expected to peak at 4%, and then drop down to 2% when it levels off. 2% is 10 times more deadly than the flue and exponentially more contagious of a virus

Presently the mortality rate for confirmed cases is about 1.3% in the US.

It’ll be higher. Unfortunately

 

[Hutch Starskey]

There are way too many conflicting reports. Trump is right to have Pence as the go to guy for Coronavirus updates. All others should stay in the shadows since they are only making things more confusing.

---As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week, marking a “pretty dramatic” increase in the number of confirmed cases, the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday.---

This prediction would indeed be a dramatic increase and is therefore hard to believe.

NIH director: 70K coronavirus cases could be confirmed in US by end of next week

It's not hard to believe at all.
It's called exponential growth.

Each infected person not distancing infects on average 2-3 people.
View attachment 313685
Incubation period is up to two weeks. That means those who present with symptoms in two weeks are already infected now but don't know it. Without proper social distancing, those people are infecting more and more people every day.

Hmmm, but let me throw this out there then, are their groups of people who break the cycle, and therefore are not infected when they come in contact with it or after they contact it they kill it in their own system ??

Talking about the thing on a chart as if the chain isn't broken in any way, either naturally by stronger immune systems, and/or maybe by these A symptomatic humans carrying it who are weakening it down over time maybe ?? Otherwise as the immune system figures it out could that also be the case where it breaks the chains ??? It is a little bit misguided isn't it to use charts in this way or is it not ??

In some cases the chain won't even start beyond the one who kills the virus dead within his or her system, and therefore breaks the infection chain at that point for thousands who could have been infected as a result of the carrier.

So in summary can it be looked at as if the chain is being broken here and there, and thus less people are infected in the chains because they are being broken ? Does the virus weaken by going through the human system in which of course has a system that detunes the virus over time ??

All good questions.
We know this is a novel virus. That means it jumped from animals to humans for presumably the first time. That means there should be no person with the necessary antibodies that would stop the virus outright from reproducing in their body.
We know that not everyone gets horribly ill after becoming infected so there must be other factors involved.

As far as I know, since this is a novel virus and there are no human antibodies, there is nothing to stop this. That's why it spreads so readily. Heard immunity is aquired over time. Usually generations.
Usually what happens is the virus, after reproducing itself a zillion times in people, mutates either into a type that is less easily spread or is able to be managed in a better way. This virus has already mutated at least three times. Once to transmit from animals to human. Once to transmit from human to human and once more in general. Our best hope is that it mutates into a less transmittable form.

 

[toomuchtime_]

A few days ago we had only about 1,300 confirmed cases and today we have 18,459 confirmed cases.

What do you mean by "confirmed cases?" Testing positive? Which is growing faster, the number of cases or the number of tests?

The more people we test the more confirmed cases there will be. The death rate is expected to be very high at first because the very sick people are being tested first. The death rate figures are expected to peak at 4%, and then drop down to 2% when it levels off. 2% is 10 times more deadly than the flue and exponentially more contagious of a virus

Presently the mortality rate for confirmed cases is about 1.3% in the US.

It be higher. Unfortunately

No,

245 deceased/ 18,959 confirmed cases = 1.3%

 

[Rocko]

A few days ago we had only about 1,300 confirmed cases and today we have 18,459 confirmed cases.

What do you mean by "confirmed cases?" Testing positive? Which is growing faster, the number of cases or the number of tests?

The more people we test the more confirmed cases there will be. The death rate is expected to be very high at first because the very sick people are being tested first. The death rate figures are expected to peak at 4%, and then drop down to 2% when it levels off. 2% is 10 times more deadly than the flue and exponentially more contagious of a virus

Presently the mortality rate for confirmed cases is about 1.3% in the US.

It be higher. Unfortunately

No,

245 deceased/ 18,959 confirmed cases = 1.3%

what I’m saying is the death rate is not at its peak yet.