Why Hillary Will Win (probably)

[Statistikhengst]

Politics is starting to get fun again

New Republican debate next week. Should give plenty of ammunition

Let the Hunger Games begin!!!

 

[rightwinger]

One smart thing the GOP did was limit the number of debates. On the surface, at least, this was smart because it gives the whackjob candidacies of Cruz and Paul less official forums to announce their positions. Contrary to the belief that the Parties pick the candidtes; they actually have very little authority over them let alone control what they say. The flip side is that the urge to make a "big splash" may be too great for either of them to understand. Those who are looking to put their marker down somewhere between the hard right and the moderate right are probably the most dangerous.

Every karem to or pander toward the hard right forces the eventual nominee to move in that direction. This will, of course, hamstring him in the general election when the enevitable move back to the center has to be made.

The reason Hillary will win is because no such force sits to her left which would force her to react in such an irrational manner. Also, if such a force were to materialize, there would still be no need for Clinton to make the move; the voters on the hard left will be there for her in November. If we learned anything from 2012 it is that the hard right will abandon a GOP candidate that is seen as not willing to carry their water and message.

Obama fatigue and the ocassional flub (if they are ocassional) and tactical mis-step of the Clinton campaign will play a role as well but there shouldn't be enough of them to swing the election.

She isn't a shoo-in for the Presidency; there is still a long way to go. But it would be hard to imagine a better set-up for Secretary Clinton than what has happened in the last few weeks with Cruz, Paul and Rubio entering the race

Donald Trump; the gift that keeps on giving.

Can't wait for next week's debate.

Hillary Clinton the gift that keeps on giving. Can't wait for her to be put in jail.

Republicans have been saying that shit since Nixon

 

[LuckyDuck01!]

I think the democrats need to come up with an alternative to Hillary Clinton. She's definitely no shoe-in for the presidency. There's too much controversy surrounding her. Joe Biden lost the bid for president before and Bernie Sanders is too far left for your average independent voter like myself. It's time to bring in someone new. A non-politician and contributor to the democratic party. The candidate needs instant name recognition. Perhaps the democratic voting public can cajole Jamie Foxx into running for the post. He's instant name recognition, a democrat contributor and popular. We've had a peanut farmer president, an actor president, an actor governor and a wrestler governor; might as well try another actor.

 

[candycorn]

I think the democrats need to come up with an alternative to Hillary Clinton. She's definitely no shoe-in for the presidency. There's too much controversy surrounding her. Joe Biden lost the bid for president before and Bernie Sanders is too far left for your average independent voter like myself. It's time to bring in someone new. A non-politician and contributor to the democratic party. The candidate needs instant name recognition. Perhaps the democratic voting public can cajole Jamie Foxx into running for the post. He's instant name recognition, a democrat contributor and popular. We've had a peanut farmer president, an actor president, an actor governor and a wrestler governor; might as well try another actor.

Not being a shoo-in is no detrement in my book. I think any battle that you survive makes you stronger. The small number of debates may be an issue for the Democratic nominee as the POTUS debates are usually 3 for the top of the ticket and one for the VP.

As for the candidates themselves, Hillary is doing well in my opinion. The idea that she was going to blow others out of the water was disproven in 2008 so I'm not quite certain why some expected her just to show up and take the title this time. I'm also happy to see that she is largely doing this on her own without the close air-support of Bill. Undoubtedly, Bill is like a Hall of Fame closer you can bring out of the bull pen to finish off the competition. The GOP has nobody they can draw on from previous administrations that is in his class. And, next fall, just wait until Obama starts campaigning for her. They may not appear together often but as a fund raiser, Obama will be extremely effective.

 

[Papageorgio]

I think the democrats need to come up with an alternative to Hillary Clinton. She's definitely no shoe-in for the presidency. There's too much controversy surrounding her. Joe Biden lost the bid for president before and Bernie Sanders is too far left for your average independent voter like myself. It's time to bring in someone new. A non-politician and contributor to the democratic party. The candidate needs instant name recognition. Perhaps the democratic voting public can cajole Jamie Foxx into running for the post. He's instant name recognition, a democrat contributor and popular. We've had a peanut farmer president, an actor president, an actor governor and a wrestler governor; might as well try another actor.

Not being a shoo-in is no detrement in my book. I think any battle that you survive makes you stronger. The small number of debates may be an issue for the Democratic nominee as the POTUS debates are usually 3 for the top of the ticket and one for the VP.

As for the candidates themselves, Hillary is doing well in my opinion. The idea that she was going to blow others out of the water was disproven in 2008 so I'm not quite certain why some expected her just to show up and take the title this time. I'm also happy to see that she is largely doing this on her own without the close air-support of Bill. Undoubtedly, Bill is like a Hall of Fame closer you can bring out of the bull pen to finish off the competition. The GOP has nobody they can draw on from previous administrations that is in his class. And, next fall, just wait until Obama starts campaigning for her. They may not appear together often but as a fund raiser, Obama will be extremely effective.

People are already tiring of her and her stale outlook.

 

[ScienceRocks]

I think the democrats need to come up with an alternative to Hillary Clinton. She's definitely no shoe-in for the presidency. There's too much controversy surrounding her. Joe Biden lost the bid for president before and Bernie Sanders is too far left for your average independent voter like myself. It's time to bring in someone new. A non-politician and contributor to the democratic party. The candidate needs instant name recognition. Perhaps the democratic voting public can cajole Jamie Foxx into running for the post. He's instant name recognition, a democrat contributor and popular. We've had a peanut farmer president, an actor president, an actor governor and a wrestler governor; might as well try another actor.

Not being a shoo-in is no detrement in my book. I think any battle that you survive makes you stronger. The small number of debates may be an issue for the Democratic nominee as the POTUS debates are usually 3 for the top of the ticket and one for the VP.

As for the candidates themselves, Hillary is doing well in my opinion. The idea that she was going to blow others out of the water was disproven in 2008 so I'm not quite certain why some expected her just to show up and take the title this time. I'm also happy to see that she is largely doing this on her own without the close air-support of Bill. Undoubtedly, Bill is like a Hall of Fame closer you can bring out of the bull pen to finish off the competition. The GOP has nobody they can draw on from previous administrations that is in his class. And, next fall, just wait until Obama starts campaigning for her. They may not appear together often but as a fund raiser, Obama will be extremely effective.

People are already tiring of her and her stale outlook.

Fuck, anyone with a brain is already tired of your slash, cut and deregulate bs....So look whos talking!

 

[Vigilante]

 

[Papageorgio]

I think the democrats need to come up with an alternative to Hillary Clinton. She's definitely no shoe-in for the presidency. There's too much controversy surrounding her. Joe Biden lost the bid for president before and Bernie Sanders is too far left for your average independent voter like myself. It's time to bring in someone new. A non-politician and contributor to the democratic party. The candidate needs instant name recognition. Perhaps the democratic voting public can cajole Jamie Foxx into running for the post. He's instant name recognition, a democrat contributor and popular. We've had a peanut farmer president, an actor president, an actor governor and a wrestler governor; might as well try another actor.

Not being a shoo-in is no detrement in my book. I think any battle that you survive makes you stronger. The small number of debates may be an issue for the Democratic nominee as the POTUS debates are usually 3 for the top of the ticket and one for the VP.

As for the candidates themselves, Hillary is doing well in my opinion. The idea that she was going to blow others out of the water was disproven in 2008 so I'm not quite certain why some expected her just to show up and take the title this time. I'm also happy to see that she is largely doing this on her own without the close air-support of Bill. Undoubtedly, Bill is like a Hall of Fame closer you can bring out of the bull pen to finish off the competition. The GOP has nobody they can draw on from previous administrations that is in his class. And, next fall, just wait until Obama starts campaigning for her. They may not appear together often but as a fund raiser, Obama will be extremely effective.

People are already tiring of her and her stale outlook.

Fuck, anyone with a brain is already tired of your slash, cut and deregulate bs....So look whos talking!

Fuck off, you have no fucking clue of my views or who I may support. Racist piece of crap.

 

[Skylar]

Politics is starting to get fun again

New Republican debate next week. Should give plenty of ammunition

Let the Hunger Games begin!!!

Seriously. Its a fucking blender. The GOP just cannibalizes itself, gives the DNC hundreds of million in free attack ads by tearing each other apart. And all a democrat has to do is sit back and light a stogie.

 

[ScienceRocks]

The gop is also cannibalizing its self by calling anyone that doesn't think we should cut, slash and burn a RINO. What a bunch of dumb fuckers.

 

[Skylar]

The gop is also cannibalizing its self by calling anyone that doesn't think we should cut, slash and burn a RINO. What a bunch of dumb fuckers.

The whole concept of the GOP was the 'big tent party'. Where people of disparate views but similar goals could meet and work together. This philosophy was fundamentally one of unity. A Reagan era conservative was loathe to criticize another conservative.

Today's GOP is almost its mirror opposite. The modern conservative movement is about exclusion, about narrow definitions of conservativism, about tearing each other apart. Conservatives as a group aren't anywhere close to a majority. The fraction of conservatives that pass their 'RINO' test is smaller still.

And yet in an act of self deception and self delusion that is still stunning to behold, these hapless souls insist that a solution to their narrowing base is to make it narrower. To focus even more tightly around the more extreme elements of its conservative philosophy. Imagining in a fit of rainbows and unicorn glitter that what America 'really wants' is a what even their own party doesn't want.

Its just.....stupidity that's almost beautiful in its perfection.

 

[candycorn]

I think the democrats need to come up with an alternative to Hillary Clinton. She's definitely no shoe-in for the presidency. There's too much controversy surrounding her. Joe Biden lost the bid for president before and Bernie Sanders is too far left for your average independent voter like myself. It's time to bring in someone new. A non-politician and contributor to the democratic party. The candidate needs instant name recognition. Perhaps the democratic voting public can cajole Jamie Foxx into running for the post. He's instant name recognition, a democrat contributor and popular. We've had a peanut farmer president, an actor president, an actor governor and a wrestler governor; might as well try another actor.

Not being a shoo-in is no detrement in my book. I think any battle that you survive makes you stronger. The small number of debates may be an issue for the Democratic nominee as the POTUS debates are usually 3 for the top of the ticket and one for the VP.

As for the candidates themselves, Hillary is doing well in my opinion. The idea that she was going to blow others out of the water was disproven in 2008 so I'm not quite certain why some expected her just to show up and take the title this time. I'm also happy to see that she is largely doing this on her own without the close air-support of Bill. Undoubtedly, Bill is like a Hall of Fame closer you can bring out of the bull pen to finish off the competition. The GOP has nobody they can draw on from previous administrations that is in his class. And, next fall, just wait until Obama starts campaigning for her. They may not appear together often but as a fund raiser, Obama will be extremely effective.

People are already tiring of her and her stale outlook.

You have a lot to learn about politics. It's okay; I'm a good teacher.

 

[candycorn]

The gop is also cannibalizing its self by calling anyone that doesn't think we should cut, slash and burn a RINO. What a bunch of dumb fuckers.

The whole concept of the GOP was the 'big tent party'. Where people of disparate views but similar goals could meet and work together. This philosophy was fundamentally one of unity. A Reagan era conservative was loathe to criticize another conservative.

Today's GOP is almost its mirror opposite. The modern conservative movement is about exclusion, about narrow definitions of conservativism, about tearing each other apart. Conservatives as a group aren't anywhere close to a majority. The fraction of conservatives that pass their 'RINO' test is smaller still.

And yet in an act of self deception and self delusion that is still stunning to behold, these hapless souls insist that a solution to their narrowing base is to make it narrower. To focus even more tightly around the more extreme elements of its conservative philosophy. Imagining in a fit of rainbows and unicorn glitter that what America 'really wants' is a what even their own party doesn't want.

Its just.....stupidity that's almost beautiful in its perfection.

I had one moron telling me that a conservative can be pro-choice, in favor of affirmative action, pro, Planned Parenthood and an atheist; as long as they believed in less government control.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I think the democrats need to come up with an alternative to Hillary Clinton. She's definitely no shoe-in for the presidency. There's too much controversy surrounding her. Joe Biden lost the bid for president before and Bernie Sanders is too far left for your average independent voter like myself. It's time to bring in someone new. A non-politician and contributor to the democratic party. The candidate needs instant name recognition. Perhaps the democratic voting public can cajole Jamie Foxx into running for the post. He's instant name recognition, a democrat contributor and popular. We've had a peanut farmer president, an actor president, an actor governor and a wrestler governor; might as well try another actor.

Not being a shoo-in is no detrement in my book. I think any battle that you survive makes you stronger. The small number of debates may be an issue for the Democratic nominee as the POTUS debates are usually 3 for the top of the ticket and one for the VP.

As for the candidates themselves, Hillary is doing well in my opinion. The idea that she was going to blow others out of the water was disproven in 2008 so I'm not quite certain why some expected her just to show up and take the title this time. I'm also happy to see that she is largely doing this on her own without the close air-support of Bill. Undoubtedly, Bill is like a Hall of Fame closer you can bring out of the bull pen to finish off the competition. The GOP has nobody they can draw on from previous administrations that is in his class. And, next fall, just wait until Obama starts campaigning for her. They may not appear together often but as a fund raiser, Obama will be extremely effective.

In August 2008, one poll (it was either Marist or Seneca) showed McCain within 4 points of Obama in New York State, 45-49. Righties were howling with joy, they were just so sure that McCain was gonna win in a landslide. I went into chuckle-chuckle mode.

In spite of 12 days of generally bad polling for Clinton, she has still won a great number of matchups against Republicans, or tied some of them, or there are statistical ties all over the place. Only, people were so used to seeing her so sky high above the others that they forgot that polling often goes through this mix-and-match phase.

However, a deeper look into all polling internals that are available shows that Hillary has room to grow in almost every category, while the GOP is close to maxed out. Also, the internals show that the weighting percentages by some pollsters are deliberately way off. One pollster weighed it with a 75% White voting public and only 7% Latino voting public and only a 10% black voting public, way, way off from 2012, also somewhat off from 2008 and very, very unlikely to happen in 2016.

So, although I don't like some of the polling values I see, I accept and record all of them and note that Joe Biden is doing exceptionally well against GOPers which also means that when Hillary is very, very likely nominated, those voters who are unsure of her will come back home.

And there is one more consistent sign that the GOP has a major uphill climb for 2016: North Carolina. Obama won NC by +0.29% in 2008, Romney barely pulled the state over the line to the GOP, by +2.04% in 2012 and polling to this date shows the race to still be very, very close. This used to be an R +13 state. Were a big Republican year forming, they would have already put this state away NOW and no one would be talking about it. Also, you do not see the GOPers making any big sounds about NM or NV, either.
Once again, I remember most all polls, especially the ones that make people want to go , like the one quirky NY poll from 2008 (Obama won by +26 that year, not by +4, so that poll was, gee, only off by 21 points...).

I'm in this for the long haul and I watch ALL of the data. For this reason, since I treat the numbers impassionately, I record all of them and see where it goes. Toplines and margins are a good starting point and suffice if a candidate is well over 50 and stays there. If not, then the internals become quite important.

And the GOP candidate who is doing the best right now against Democrats: Ben Carson, a man who is not likely to get the GOP nomination.

At the end of the day, US general elections, esp. at the presidential level, are won by winning the soft middle. Neither the Rs nor the Ds can win with just the base, even with 100% of the base. It's the squishy, finicky, on the fence "independents" who decide a national election.

Hillary will come out of this stronger than ever.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Politics is starting to get fun again

New Republican debate next week. Should give plenty of ammunition

Let the Hunger Games begin!!!

Seriously. Its a fucking blender. The GOP just cannibalizes itself, gives the DNC hundreds of million in free attack ads by tearing each other apart. And all a democrat has to do is sit back and light a stogie.

Yupp.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

 

[rightwinger]

As Joe Biden once said..... You don't have to beat the almighty, you only have to beat the alternative

The Republican alternatives can't win

 

[Statistikhengst]

As Joe Biden once said..... You don't have to beat the almighty, you only have to beat the alternative

The Republican alternatives can't win

Yepp.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

 

[Papageorgio]

I think the democrats need to come up with an alternative to Hillary Clinton. She's definitely no shoe-in for the presidency. There's too much controversy surrounding her. Joe Biden lost the bid for president before and Bernie Sanders is too far left for your average independent voter like myself. It's time to bring in someone new. A non-politician and contributor to the democratic party. The candidate needs instant name recognition. Perhaps the democratic voting public can cajole Jamie Foxx into running for the post. He's instant name recognition, a democrat contributor and popular. We've had a peanut farmer president, an actor president, an actor governor and a wrestler governor; might as well try another actor.

Not being a shoo-in is no detrement in my book. I think any battle that you survive makes you stronger. The small number of debates may be an issue for the Democratic nominee as the POTUS debates are usually 3 for the top of the ticket and one for the VP.

As for the candidates themselves, Hillary is doing well in my opinion. The idea that she was going to blow others out of the water was disproven in 2008 so I'm not quite certain why some expected her just to show up and take the title this time. I'm also happy to see that she is largely doing this on her own without the close air-support of Bill. Undoubtedly, Bill is like a Hall of Fame closer you can bring out of the bull pen to finish off the competition. The GOP has nobody they can draw on from previous administrations that is in his class. And, next fall, just wait until Obama starts campaigning for her. They may not appear together often but as a fund raiser, Obama will be extremely effective.

People are already tiring of her and her stale outlook.

You have a lot to learn about politics. It's okay; I'm a good teacher.

Yeah, I'm sure you think you know quite a bit.

 

[rightwinger]

With Biden unlikely to run, Hillary has a free pass to the Democratic nomination

Beyond that, she just has to lay back and allow Trump to run roughshod over the Republican field. Whichever candidate emerges from the clown car will be too damaged to be much of a threat

 

[RKMBrown]

The gop is also cannibalizing its self by calling anyone that doesn't think we should cut, slash and burn a RINO. What a bunch of dumb fuckers.

The whole concept of the GOP was the 'big tent party'. Where people of disparate views but similar goals could meet and work together. This philosophy was fundamentally one of unity. A Reagan era conservative was loathe to criticize another conservative.

Today's GOP is almost its mirror opposite. The modern conservative movement is about exclusion, about narrow definitions of conservativism, about tearing each other apart. Conservatives as a group aren't anywhere close to a majority. The fraction of conservatives that pass their 'RINO' test is smaller still.

And yet in an act of self deception and self delusion that is still stunning to behold, these hapless souls insist that a solution to their narrowing base is to make it narrower. To focus even more tightly around the more extreme elements of its conservative philosophy. Imagining in a fit of rainbows and unicorn glitter that what America 'really wants' is a what even their own party doesn't want.

Its just.....stupidity that's almost beautiful in its perfection.

I had one moron telling me that a conservative can be pro-choice, in favor of affirmative action, pro, Planned Parenthood and an atheist; as long as they believed in less government control.

You must be one of those fucking morons that want to place control over their religious beliefs into the hands of government.