Brexit busted.

[frigidweirdo]

What possible freedom do we have for trying to implement any 'plan', for as long as the EU dictates to us ?? We DO NOT HAVE THE FREEDOM to actively plan, as yet. No doubt if we tried, the EU would try to punish us for it ...

Besides, in general terms, it's obvious. One, IF the conditions are favourable enough, we can continue to trade with EU countries. However, we have yet to see how nasty Member States would want to be, how they'd try to punish us, if we successfully obtained our freedom.

The extent of such spiteful activity would determine the extent of our trade with others. It's not as though the rest of the world doesn't exist .. it does. We can, two, trade with it, determining OUR terms for doing so. BUT, only if we're shot of the EU !!

It's a leaving plan. What freedom do you have to make a leaving plan? Quite a lot.

However, if you're suggesting that the Brexit people can't make a leaving plan because they have no idea what the EU is going to do afterwards, you might be right, and it's also a reason why people should seriously be looking at the possibilities.

The Brexit people act like the UK is just going to make trade agreements that are equal to or better than what exists now. Chances are this isn't going to happen. People need to know this.

IF conditions are favorable enough, the UK won't lose half its trade. Wow, that's.... that's...... like jumping off a really high waterfall and hoping to do a perfect 10 dive, chances of survival? 1%.

Yes, spiteful activity. What reason does the EU have to want the UK to do well out of leaving the EU? None. There's no positive for them. They want to see the UK rot, and show all the other countries what happens if you leave the UK. The UK will be the example.

And you want to leave knowing you could lose a lot of trade, causing massive unemployment and problems? You want this?

 

[frigidweirdo]

It wouldn't, and it isn't.

Time will tell, won't it?

Time will tell, but also it's pretty obvious now, so why does time need to tell? Oh, it's you not having an argument at all, and just saying something to stop it look like you don't have an argument.

 

[montelatici]

It wouldn't, and it isn't.

Time will tell, won't it?

Time will tell, but also it's pretty obvious now, so why does time need to tell? Oh, it's you not having an argument at all, and just saying something to stop it look like you don't have an argument.

Some may forget that the merger of the LSE and Deutsche Boerse will likely fall apart as Deutsche Boerse will look forward to EU companies leaving the LSE for them and other EU exchanges.

 

[frigidweirdo]

It wouldn't, and it isn't.

Time will tell, won't it?

Time will tell, but also it's pretty obvious now, so why does time need to tell? Oh, it's you not having an argument at all, and just saying something to stop it look like you don't have an argument.

Some may forget that the merger of the LSE and Deutsche Boerse will likely fall apart as Deutsche Boerse will look forward to EU companies leaving the LSE for them and other EU exchanges.

Here's a good article from the BBC about the potential pitfalls of leaving.

Germany conflicted on how to handle Brexit - BBC News

 

[Phoenall]

But the power mongers will succeed if the UK remains, too. Maybe - MAYBE - we can stall their effort for a limited time, but not forever. We only have one vote amongst a couple of dozen others, after all !!

And at the end of it, we'll be at the tender mercy of a foreign colossus which, as I said, serves ITS interests, not ours.

Consider.The EEC began as mere trading bloc. Then the power-freaks moved in, created the EU, bound Member States into treaty obligations to the EU, these conferring power to the European Parliament - a Parliament that didn't exist under the old setup.

How 'successful' has the UK been in stopping any of this ? Answer ... Gordon Brown SIGNED US UP to the Lisbon Treaty !!

We have a chance to undo this wreckage on 23rd June, and reclaim what is ours by right ... the right to GOVERN OURSELVES.

You say that neither the Tories nor Labour are interested in the concerns of the ordinary citizen ? I can agree that this is true of Labour, who actually forbade us from having a Referendum. Though the Conservatives may - some of them - be pushing hard for continued membership, nonetheless, if it weren't for them, we'd have no Referendum ! I call that .... LISTENING ! Considering the ordinary citizen, not ignoring him.

Being out of the EU is very definitely the best of one specific thing. The chance to regain our political autonomy !!

The UK "only has one vote amongst a couple of dozen others", yeah, and so do those who want the EU to be a superstate, don't they? But they've managed to actually do something.

The EU has plenty of Euroskeptics, and if the UK could bring them together, they'd find they have a powerful body.

Again, the UK is a can't do country.

So, consider the EU as it used to be, and the Brits say this is the sort of thing they want, and they don't try and make it happen.

Did you see the pound dropped again? It rose 0.4% against the dollar and 0.8% against the Euro with a poll being pro-stay, and it's swung the other way.

Pound Drops as New Brexit Poll Shows ‘Leave’ Camp Taking Lead

"The pound dropped after a new poll showed a jump in support for the campaign to take Britain out of the European Union, spooking some investors who had thought that the result was a foregone conclusion."

"The pound dropped 0.9 percent to $1.4511 as of 5:37 p.m. London time, the biggest drop since May 3. It weakened 0.9 percent to 76.79 pence per euro."

Come June 23rd, and people getting close to their holiday in Spain or Greece, how much more is it going to cost them?

The market likes certainty. With a pro-EU decision, the markets have that certainty. Because .. of the familiarity of the status quo ... simply that.

With a UK forging new trading ties, in a wider market containing a wider scope of trading opportunities, the markets would respond very positively indeed to that ... once there was a proven case for prosperity.

As for the effect of June 23rd on holidaymakers going to Greece and Spain .. it's interesting to note that you've chosen two weak currencies. Consider the small, but highly unstable, economy of Greece. Small or not, some months ago it created crisis conditions within the EU as a whole. Greece got its bailout, yet may well default again in the future. What price continuing economic stability throughout the Eurozone, if that happens ? Spain is in a stronger position, yet not so very much stronger that she, too, may flounder someday.

'A chain is as strong as its weakest link'. Only as strong as Greece ? And .. you want to chain us to the entity that's having to carry such failing economies on its back ???

Better that we shake off such shackles, and man the lifeboats, in case the ship sinks, eh ?

What "new trading ties"????

The EU makes trade agreements that will have far more force than the UK could ever get. What is the UK going to get that will replace what the UK will lose from leaving the EU?

Do you know how much money the UK gets from EU trade agreements with those outside of the EU? Do you know how much money the UK gets from trading within the EU?

I looked at statistics (which I am unfortunately unable to find any more), and it showed that in the first two years of countries like Estonia, and all those who joined the EU in 2004, their trade with the UK increased up to 200%, and that withing 2 years. Why? Why would trade increase massively with the UK in this time? It's clear.

Stats are difficult, there are different interpretations of everything that could happen.

No UK trade benefit from EU membership - Civitas report - BBC News

Civitas says there's no benefit from being in the EU. I disagree with this. This "seems to contradict analysis by the Confederation of British Industry."

So, both sides will say their piece.

http://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default...nts/pdf/2014/pb_britishtrade_16jan14-8285.pdf

"If Britain were to leave the EU, it would face a difficult dilemma: having to negotiate access to the EU’s single market in exchange for continued adherence to its rules – or losing access in return for regulatory sovereignty that would be largely illusory."

Basically, the EU is about 50% of the UK's trade. The UK cannot afford to risk losing 50% of this trade. There's no way in hell the UK can make up this 50% of trade from outside the EU. You don't just go to Zimbabwe and say "hey, we're open and willing to deal, can you substitute for Spain?"

HM Revenue & Customs uktradeinfo - EU & Non-EU_Data

"Non-EU Exports for March 2016 were £12.9 billion. This remained unchanged compared with last month. There was a decrease of £3.6 billion (22 per cent) compared with March 2015."

"EU Exports for March 2016 were £12.0 billion. This was an increase of £0.6 billion (5.7 per cent) compared with last month, and a rise of £0.1 billion (0.6 per cent) compared with March 2015."

So, 12 billion to 12.9 billion for EU to non-EU trade per month. 12 billion pounds is a lot of money.

For example, if the pound lost 1% against the Euro, then that's 120 million pounds gone. That's 120 million a month. Make the pound lose 5% and that 600 million a month. 7.20 billion a year. And that's only in exports.

UK imports from the EU were 20 billion. 1% and the UK is paying an extra 200 million pounds. That's 320 million pounds a month. Make it 5% and that's 1.6 billion pounds a month, added to exports and that's 19.2 billion a year, added to the exports and that's 26.4 billion a year.

Then take into account the amount of trade the UK would actually lose from not being as competitive as those around them.

The EU costs the UK, what? About 6 billion a year. You would be willing to save 6 billion a year and risk losing 19.2 billion a year from a drop which is very close to what we saw yesterday from a poll saying leave was in the lead, or risk losing 26.4 billion a year if it goes to 5%, or you can do the maths based on this for other percentages.

Add in the costs of potentially losing money from not being part of EU trade deals and having to make their own (yes, I know you probably think that UK politicians are the best in the world, but clearly they're not, as the Germans and French are leading the EU) so, the UK going out to make those trade deals, with less power behind them, less chance of such a good deal, and you're losing even more money.

And the EU will still need those same goods when the UK leaves, that is if it leaves. Trade is a two way street and the EU will lose an outlet for its goods as well, meaning that they will have to negotiate a new policy. Already it is said to reduce the cost of white goods in the UK because we will no longer pay the EU levy on them. We will also be able to buy appliances that work and not underrated underpowered toys that meet EU approval on efficiency. ( how would you like a Ford Mustang powered by a single cylinder moped engine ) So in a nutshell we can set our own prices, so undercutting EU manufacturers. The EU will still need our products until they can get the East to produce the goods they are in need of. Just as the US need the UK to offload its goods on

Yes it will. But then some EU companies might see that they can sell those same products for cheaper within the EU, and become successful while UK companies are struggling to be competitive.

Trade is a 2 way street. HOWEVER, like I've said, in 2004 when 8 countries joined the EU, the trade with those 8 countries increased, and with a few it was over 200% in two years. These products weren't being sold to these countries before this, then the open borders and ease of trade made these products viable in their markets.

Having a simplistic view on trade, which the Brexit people seem to think won't change anything, or at least this is what they're trying to portray is extremely naive.

They cant as the EU rules will not allow them to do so, The price is set and that is what it has to sell for. If the UK leaves they are no longer constrained by the rules and can sell for what they want.

Yes when the Eastern European nations joined trade with them increased and some people became very rich in the process. Now they are struggling to attract buyers for their produce because it is of such poor quality, they are forced to put country of origin on the packaging so many people wont now buy these goods. The people being poor did not buy much from the EU and found most of the edible produce to be tasteless and poor.

Trade wont change as the nations will need to buy our goods before we buy theirs, if they refuse we walk away and go elsewhere.I am sure we can do without golden delicious apples and straight cucumbers for a few weeks until ours become ripe. Or we can go to Israel for their fresh fruits ?

 

[Phoenall]

The UK "only has one vote amongst a couple of dozen others", yeah, and so do those who want the EU to be a superstate, don't they? But they've managed to actually do something.

The EU has plenty of Euroskeptics, and if the UK could bring them together, they'd find they have a powerful body.

Again, the UK is a can't do country.

So, consider the EU as it used to be, and the Brits say this is the sort of thing they want, and they don't try and make it happen.

Did you see the pound dropped again? It rose 0.4% against the dollar and 0.8% against the Euro with a poll being pro-stay, and it's swung the other way.

Pound Drops as New Brexit Poll Shows ‘Leave’ Camp Taking Lead

"The pound dropped after a new poll showed a jump in support for the campaign to take Britain out of the European Union, spooking some investors who had thought that the result was a foregone conclusion."

"The pound dropped 0.9 percent to $1.4511 as of 5:37 p.m. London time, the biggest drop since May 3. It weakened 0.9 percent to 76.79 pence per euro."

Come June 23rd, and people getting close to their holiday in Spain or Greece, how much more is it going to cost them?

The market likes certainty. With a pro-EU decision, the markets have that certainty. Because .. of the familiarity of the status quo ... simply that.

With a UK forging new trading ties, in a wider market containing a wider scope of trading opportunities, the markets would respond very positively indeed to that ... once there was a proven case for prosperity.

As for the effect of June 23rd on holidaymakers going to Greece and Spain .. it's interesting to note that you've chosen two weak currencies. Consider the small, but highly unstable, economy of Greece. Small or not, some months ago it created crisis conditions within the EU as a whole. Greece got its bailout, yet may well default again in the future. What price continuing economic stability throughout the Eurozone, if that happens ? Spain is in a stronger position, yet not so very much stronger that she, too, may flounder someday.

'A chain is as strong as its weakest link'. Only as strong as Greece ? And .. you want to chain us to the entity that's having to carry such failing economies on its back ???

Better that we shake off such shackles, and man the lifeboats, in case the ship sinks, eh ?

What "new trading ties"????

The EU makes trade agreements that will have far more force than the UK could ever get. What is the UK going to get that will replace what the UK will lose from leaving the EU?

Do you know how much money the UK gets from EU trade agreements with those outside of the EU? Do you know how much money the UK gets from trading within the EU?

I looked at statistics (which I am unfortunately unable to find any more), and it showed that in the first two years of countries like Estonia, and all those who joined the EU in 2004, their trade with the UK increased up to 200%, and that withing 2 years. Why? Why would trade increase massively with the UK in this time? It's clear.

Stats are difficult, there are different interpretations of everything that could happen.

No UK trade benefit from EU membership - Civitas report - BBC News

Civitas says there's no benefit from being in the EU. I disagree with this. This "seems to contradict analysis by the Confederation of British Industry."

So, both sides will say their piece.

http://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default...nts/pdf/2014/pb_britishtrade_16jan14-8285.pdf

"If Britain were to leave the EU, it would face a difficult dilemma: having to negotiate access to the EU’s single market in exchange for continued adherence to its rules – or losing access in return for regulatory sovereignty that would be largely illusory."

Basically, the EU is about 50% of the UK's trade. The UK cannot afford to risk losing 50% of this trade. There's no way in hell the UK can make up this 50% of trade from outside the EU. You don't just go to Zimbabwe and say "hey, we're open and willing to deal, can you substitute for Spain?"

HM Revenue & Customs uktradeinfo - EU & Non-EU_Data

"Non-EU Exports for March 2016 were £12.9 billion. This remained unchanged compared with last month. There was a decrease of £3.6 billion (22 per cent) compared with March 2015."

"EU Exports for March 2016 were £12.0 billion. This was an increase of £0.6 billion (5.7 per cent) compared with last month, and a rise of £0.1 billion (0.6 per cent) compared with March 2015."

So, 12 billion to 12.9 billion for EU to non-EU trade per month. 12 billion pounds is a lot of money.

For example, if the pound lost 1% against the Euro, then that's 120 million pounds gone. That's 120 million a month. Make the pound lose 5% and that 600 million a month. 7.20 billion a year. And that's only in exports.

UK imports from the EU were 20 billion. 1% and the UK is paying an extra 200 million pounds. That's 320 million pounds a month. Make it 5% and that's 1.6 billion pounds a month, added to exports and that's 19.2 billion a year, added to the exports and that's 26.4 billion a year.

Then take into account the amount of trade the UK would actually lose from not being as competitive as those around them.

The EU costs the UK, what? About 6 billion a year. You would be willing to save 6 billion a year and risk losing 19.2 billion a year from a drop which is very close to what we saw yesterday from a poll saying leave was in the lead, or risk losing 26.4 billion a year if it goes to 5%, or you can do the maths based on this for other percentages.

Add in the costs of potentially losing money from not being part of EU trade deals and having to make their own (yes, I know you probably think that UK politicians are the best in the world, but clearly they're not, as the Germans and French are leading the EU) so, the UK going out to make those trade deals, with less power behind them, less chance of such a good deal, and you're losing even more money.

And the EU will still need those same goods when the UK leaves, that is if it leaves. Trade is a two way street and the EU will lose an outlet for its goods as well, meaning that they will have to negotiate a new policy. Already it is said to reduce the cost of white goods in the UK because we will no longer pay the EU levy on them. We will also be able to buy appliances that work and not underrated underpowered toys that meet EU approval on efficiency. ( how would you like a Ford Mustang powered by a single cylinder moped engine ) So in a nutshell we can set our own prices, so undercutting EU manufacturers. The EU will still need our products until they can get the East to produce the goods they are in need of. Just as the US need the UK to offload its goods on

Yes it will. But then some EU companies might see that they can sell those same products for cheaper within the EU, and become successful while UK companies are struggling to be competitive.

Trade is a 2 way street. HOWEVER, like I've said, in 2004 when 8 countries joined the EU, the trade with those 8 countries increased, and with a few it was over 200% in two years. These products weren't being sold to these countries before this, then the open borders and ease of trade made these products viable in their markets.

Having a simplistic view on trade, which the Brexit people seem to think won't change anything, or at least this is what they're trying to portray is extremely naive.

A Brexit would lead to an exit of Germany and other nations seeking to shed the anchors of Greece, Italy and other less-responsible nations in the EU.

A collapse of the EU is good for America.

Not really as it would be ripe for an Eastern invasion through trade. The US is too far away to make trade viable, and NATO is becoming fragmented due to socialist powers in Europe

 

[Phoenall]

The market likes certainty. With a pro-EU decision, the markets have that certainty. Because .. of the familiarity of the status quo ... simply that.

With a UK forging new trading ties, in a wider market containing a wider scope of trading opportunities, the markets would respond very positively indeed to that ... once there was a proven case for prosperity.

As for the effect of June 23rd on holidaymakers going to Greece and Spain .. it's interesting to note that you've chosen two weak currencies. Consider the small, but highly unstable, economy of Greece. Small or not, some months ago it created crisis conditions within the EU as a whole. Greece got its bailout, yet may well default again in the future. What price continuing economic stability throughout the Eurozone, if that happens ? Spain is in a stronger position, yet not so very much stronger that she, too, may flounder someday.

'A chain is as strong as its weakest link'. Only as strong as Greece ? And .. you want to chain us to the entity that's having to carry such failing economies on its back ???

Better that we shake off such shackles, and man the lifeboats, in case the ship sinks, eh ?

What "new trading ties"????

The EU makes trade agreements that will have far more force than the UK could ever get. What is the UK going to get that will replace what the UK will lose from leaving the EU?

Do you know how much money the UK gets from EU trade agreements with those outside of the EU? Do you know how much money the UK gets from trading within the EU?

I looked at statistics (which I am unfortunately unable to find any more), and it showed that in the first two years of countries like Estonia, and all those who joined the EU in 2004, their trade with the UK increased up to 200%, and that withing 2 years. Why? Why would trade increase massively with the UK in this time? It's clear.

Stats are difficult, there are different interpretations of everything that could happen.

No UK trade benefit from EU membership - Civitas report - BBC News

Civitas says there's no benefit from being in the EU. I disagree with this. This "seems to contradict analysis by the Confederation of British Industry."

So, both sides will say their piece.

http://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default...nts/pdf/2014/pb_britishtrade_16jan14-8285.pdf

"If Britain were to leave the EU, it would face a difficult dilemma: having to negotiate access to the EU’s single market in exchange for continued adherence to its rules – or losing access in return for regulatory sovereignty that would be largely illusory."

Basically, the EU is about 50% of the UK's trade. The UK cannot afford to risk losing 50% of this trade. There's no way in hell the UK can make up this 50% of trade from outside the EU. You don't just go to Zimbabwe and say "hey, we're open and willing to deal, can you substitute for Spain?"

HM Revenue & Customs uktradeinfo - EU & Non-EU_Data

"Non-EU Exports for March 2016 were £12.9 billion. This remained unchanged compared with last month. There was a decrease of £3.6 billion (22 per cent) compared with March 2015."

"EU Exports for March 2016 were £12.0 billion. This was an increase of £0.6 billion (5.7 per cent) compared with last month, and a rise of £0.1 billion (0.6 per cent) compared with March 2015."

So, 12 billion to 12.9 billion for EU to non-EU trade per month. 12 billion pounds is a lot of money.

For example, if the pound lost 1% against the Euro, then that's 120 million pounds gone. That's 120 million a month. Make the pound lose 5% and that 600 million a month. 7.20 billion a year. And that's only in exports.

UK imports from the EU were 20 billion. 1% and the UK is paying an extra 200 million pounds. That's 320 million pounds a month. Make it 5% and that's 1.6 billion pounds a month, added to exports and that's 19.2 billion a year, added to the exports and that's 26.4 billion a year.

Then take into account the amount of trade the UK would actually lose from not being as competitive as those around them.

The EU costs the UK, what? About 6 billion a year. You would be willing to save 6 billion a year and risk losing 19.2 billion a year from a drop which is very close to what we saw yesterday from a poll saying leave was in the lead, or risk losing 26.4 billion a year if it goes to 5%, or you can do the maths based on this for other percentages.

Add in the costs of potentially losing money from not being part of EU trade deals and having to make their own (yes, I know you probably think that UK politicians are the best in the world, but clearly they're not, as the Germans and French are leading the EU) so, the UK going out to make those trade deals, with less power behind them, less chance of such a good deal, and you're losing even more money.

And the EU will still need those same goods when the UK leaves, that is if it leaves. Trade is a two way street and the EU will lose an outlet for its goods as well, meaning that they will have to negotiate a new policy. Already it is said to reduce the cost of white goods in the UK because we will no longer pay the EU levy on them. We will also be able to buy appliances that work and not underrated underpowered toys that meet EU approval on efficiency. ( how would you like a Ford Mustang powered by a single cylinder moped engine ) So in a nutshell we can set our own prices, so undercutting EU manufacturers. The EU will still need our products until they can get the East to produce the goods they are in need of. Just as the US need the UK to offload its goods on

Yes it will. But then some EU companies might see that they can sell those same products for cheaper within the EU, and become successful while UK companies are struggling to be competitive.

Trade is a 2 way street. HOWEVER, like I've said, in 2004 when 8 countries joined the EU, the trade with those 8 countries increased, and with a few it was over 200% in two years. These products weren't being sold to these countries before this, then the open borders and ease of trade made these products viable in their markets.

Having a simplistic view on trade, which the Brexit people seem to think won't change anything, or at least this is what they're trying to portray is extremely naive.

A Brexit would lead to an exit of Germany and other nations seeking to shed the anchors of Greece, Italy and other less-responsible nations in the EU.

A collapse of the EU is good for America.

With a British exit, the EU will gain Scotland and possibly Wales as members. The union, without England and Northern Ireland will seek to integrate further.


Germany and France were the most irresponsible but were not sanctioned.


"Back in 2003, both France and Germany were able to flout the conditions of the Stability and Growth Pact, after they ran budget deficits in excess of 3pc of their GDP. Both managed to avoid sanction after their fellow members decided to let them off the hook."


Why do France and Germany keep breaking EU rules?

WRONG as the EU has already stated that they will have to offer something in return, and at the moment they are not on the list of priorities. They do not give a back door into England and will just end up paying for security they cant afford. Hadrians wall and Offa's dyke are still in existence and the English could make them fortified very quickly, and give employment to the workshy in the process.

 

[Phoenall]

What possible freedom do we have for trying to implement any 'plan', for as long as the EU dictates to us ?? We DO NOT HAVE THE FREEDOM to actively plan, as yet. No doubt if we tried, the EU would try to punish us for it ...

Besides, in general terms, it's obvious. One, IF the conditions are favourable enough, we can continue to trade with EU countries. However, we have yet to see how nasty Member States would want to be, how they'd try to punish us, if we successfully obtained our freedom.

The extent of such spiteful activity would determine the extent of our trade with others. It's not as though the rest of the world doesn't exist .. it does. We can, two, trade with it, determining OUR terms for doing so. BUT, only if we're shot of the EU !!

It's a leaving plan. What freedom do you have to make a leaving plan? Quite a lot.

However, if you're suggesting that the Brexit people can't make a leaving plan because they have no idea what the EU is going to do afterwards, you might be right, and it's also a reason why people should seriously be looking at the possibilities.

The Brexit people act like the UK is just going to make trade agreements that are equal to or better than what exists now. Chances are this isn't going to happen. People need to know this.

IF conditions are favorable enough, the UK won't lose half its trade. Wow, that's.... that's...... like jumping off a really high waterfall and hoping to do a perfect 10 dive, chances of survival? 1%.

Yes, spiteful activity. What reason does the EU have to want the UK to do well out of leaving the EU? None. There's no positive for them. They want to see the UK rot, and show all the other countries what happens if you leave the UK. The UK will be the example.

And you want to leave knowing you could lose a lot of trade, causing massive unemployment and problems? You want this?

If you can forecast the future so well why aren't you a multi billionaire.

We have trade now because Europe needs our products, that will not change if we leave they will still need our products. If the UK loses half of its trade so will the EU as it is a two way street, and Europe is running on a thin line after taking on far too many poor Eastern European nations. They hoped to put a buffer zone between Russia and the West using these former soviet satellite nations and failed. If they can find a way to offload them without seeming arrogant and nasty then they should do so. The Syrian crisis has shown that the EU failed on its border security because it never implemented the multi national armed force it promised.

 

[frigidweirdo]

They cant as the EU rules will not allow them to do so, The price is set and that is what it has to sell for. If the UK leaves they are no longer constrained by the rules and can sell for what they want.

Yes when the Eastern European nations joined trade with them increased and some people became very rich in the process. Now they are struggling to attract buyers for their produce because it is of such poor quality, they are forced to put country of origin on the packaging so many people wont now buy these goods. The people being poor did not buy much from the EU and found most of the edible produce to be tasteless and poor.

Trade wont change as the nations will need to buy our goods before we buy theirs, if they refuse we walk away and go elsewhere.I am sure we can do without golden delicious apples and straight cucumbers for a few weeks until ours become ripe. Or we can go to Israel for their fresh fruits ?

Except if A) the UK govt decides to impose such limits and B) if the UK ends up in a deal with the EU that constrains UK businesses.

I don't just mean products going from east to west, mainly I mean west to east, they were buying UK products. Now, if those products rise in price, will they continue to buy from the UK?

You say trade won't change. You're not being realistic at all. Trade WILL change, of course it will. Even the Brexit people know it will change, and it will almost certainly change for the worst for the UK. It might also effect the EU.

Like that BBC article I posted said, the chances of the EU trying to "punish" the UK for leaving is quite high, even if they would suffer a little.

Scotland would suffer a LOT.

 

[frigidweirdo]

What possible freedom do we have for trying to implement any 'plan', for as long as the EU dictates to us ?? We DO NOT HAVE THE FREEDOM to actively plan, as yet. No doubt if we tried, the EU would try to punish us for it ...

Besides, in general terms, it's obvious. One, IF the conditions are favourable enough, we can continue to trade with EU countries. However, we have yet to see how nasty Member States would want to be, how they'd try to punish us, if we successfully obtained our freedom.

The extent of such spiteful activity would determine the extent of our trade with others. It's not as though the rest of the world doesn't exist .. it does. We can, two, trade with it, determining OUR terms for doing so. BUT, only if we're shot of the EU !!

It's a leaving plan. What freedom do you have to make a leaving plan? Quite a lot.

However, if you're suggesting that the Brexit people can't make a leaving plan because they have no idea what the EU is going to do afterwards, you might be right, and it's also a reason why people should seriously be looking at the possibilities.

The Brexit people act like the UK is just going to make trade agreements that are equal to or better than what exists now. Chances are this isn't going to happen. People need to know this.

IF conditions are favorable enough, the UK won't lose half its trade. Wow, that's.... that's...... like jumping off a really high waterfall and hoping to do a perfect 10 dive, chances of survival? 1%.

Yes, spiteful activity. What reason does the EU have to want the UK to do well out of leaving the EU? None. There's no positive for them. They want to see the UK rot, and show all the other countries what happens if you leave the UK. The UK will be the example.

And you want to leave knowing you could lose a lot of trade, causing massive unemployment and problems? You want this?

If you can forecast the future so well why aren't you a multi billionaire.

We have trade now because Europe needs our products, that will not change if we leave they will still need our products. If the UK loses half of its trade so will the EU as it is a two way street, and Europe is running on a thin line after taking on far too many poor Eastern European nations. They hoped to put a buffer zone between Russia and the West using these former soviet satellite nations and failed. If they can find a way to offload them without seeming arrogant and nasty then they should do so. The Syrian crisis has shown that the EU failed on its border security because it never implemented the multi national armed force it promised.

What I'm forecasting is very vague. I'm suggesting a lot of possibilities, not saying exactly what will happen.

Yes, the EU wants our products and we want their products.

However you have lots of different possibilities out there.

1) The EU will try and hurt the UK by being tough when negotiating a new trade agreement so that UK business will have to pay tariffs on their goods going to the EU.

2) The pound will drop in order to accommodate tariffs and the like, and this will lose the UK a lot of money. I posted that a 1% drop in the pound against the Euro will lose the UK more money than the net spending on the EU. a 5% will cause massive unemployment along with a devalued pound which makes everyone poorer anyway.

3) The UK (with a government that is pro-EU whichever gets elected) will choose to join the Schengen Zone in order to have good trade, which will lose the UK a lot less in trade, but which is a WORSE situation for immigration.

Here are some. In order for the UK not to lose out economically, the UK has to accept what the EU is offering and that the Brexit people won't like.

In just about every possibility, there is no win/win for the UK. Either they lose economically or they lose by being controlled more by the EU.

 

[Drummond]

What possible freedom do we have for trying to implement any 'plan', for as long as the EU dictates to us ?? We DO NOT HAVE THE FREEDOM to actively plan, as yet. No doubt if we tried, the EU would try to punish us for it ...

Besides, in general terms, it's obvious. One, IF the conditions are favourable enough, we can continue to trade with EU countries. However, we have yet to see how nasty Member States would want to be, how they'd try to punish us, if we successfully obtained our freedom.

The extent of such spiteful activity would determine the extent of our trade with others. It's not as though the rest of the world doesn't exist .. it does. We can, two, trade with it, determining OUR terms for doing so. BUT, only if we're shot of the EU !!

It's a leaving plan. What freedom do you have to make a leaving plan? Quite a lot.

However, if you're suggesting that the Brexit people can't make a leaving plan because they have no idea what the EU is going to do afterwards, you might be right, and it's also a reason why people should seriously be looking at the possibilities.

The Brexit people act like the UK is just going to make trade agreements that are equal to or better than what exists now. Chances are this isn't going to happen. People need to know this.

IF conditions are favorable enough, the UK won't lose half its trade. Wow, that's.... that's...... like jumping off a really high waterfall and hoping to do a perfect 10 dive, chances of survival? 1%.

Yes, spiteful activity. What reason does the EU have to want the UK to do well out of leaving the EU? None. There's no positive for them. They want to see the UK rot, and show all the other countries what happens if you leave the UK. The UK will be the example.

And you want to leave knowing you could lose a lot of trade, causing massive unemployment and problems? You want this?

If you can forecast the future so well why aren't you a multi billionaire.

We have trade now because Europe needs our products, that will not change if we leave they will still need our products. If the UK loses half of its trade so will the EU as it is a two way street, and Europe is running on a thin line after taking on far too many poor Eastern European nations. They hoped to put a buffer zone between Russia and the West using these former soviet satellite nations and failed. If they can find a way to offload them without seeming arrogant and nasty then they should do so. The Syrian crisis has shown that the EU failed on its border security because it never implemented the multi national armed force it promised.

What I'm forecasting is very vague. I'm suggesting a lot of possibilities, not saying exactly what will happen.

Yes, the EU wants our products and we want their products.

However you have lots of different possibilities out there.

1) The EU will try and hurt the UK by being tough when negotiating a new trade agreement so that UK business will have to pay tariffs on their goods going to the EU.

2) The pound will drop in order to accommodate tariffs and the like, and this will lose the UK a lot of money. I posted that a 1% drop in the pound against the Euro will lose the UK more money than the net spending on the EU. a 5% will cause massive unemployment along with a devalued pound which makes everyone poorer anyway.

3) The UK (with a government that is pro-EU whichever gets elected) will choose to join the Schengen Zone in order to have good trade, which will lose the UK a lot less in trade, but which is a WORSE situation for immigration.

Here are some. In order for the UK not to lose out economically, the UK has to accept what the EU is offering and that the Brexit people won't like.

In just about every possibility, there is no win/win for the UK. Either they lose economically or they lose by being controlled more by the EU.

Two points ...

1. Let's say you're correct about the EU seeking to punish us for exiting it. Well ... doesn't this say all that needs to be said about the very CORRECTNESS of getting out ? Isn't it akin to some 'Mafia'-like organisation seeking punishment against anyone daring to defy it ?

Are we prepared to fight for our own future, or not ? MUST the 'we choose to cower like wimps in the face of EU bullying' be the way of things ???

2. Brexit, if voted for, would not produce a cataclysmic, immediate disenfranchisement from the EU. It'd have to be legislated for (on our side, and theirs). I recall reading that at least two years would be needed to conclude the process.

Now, what might we achieve in that time. Would we be sitting on our hands, immobile, incapable of seeking out alternative markets and making agreements with them ? Why ... in the interim period, the combination of continuing (if only temporarily) trading agreement being honoured, AND the new trade we'd gain, might lead to a limited period of net GAIN for us ... a booming economy, for as long as the interim persisted !!!

Perhaps we'd gain enough to see that gain offset any dips from EU 'punishments' .. ?

 

[Divine Wind]

Not really as it would be ripe for an Eastern invasion through trade. The US is too far away to make trade viable, and NATO is becoming fragmented due to socialist powers in Europe

That's already happening, especially with oil and gas being held hostage by Putin.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Two points ...

1. Let's say you're correct about the EU seeking to punish us for exiting it. Well ... doesn't this say all that needs to be said about the very CORRECTNESS of getting out ? Isn't it akin to some 'Mafia'-like organisation seeking punishment against anyone daring to defy it ?

Are we prepared to fight for our own future, or not ? MUST the 'we choose to cower like wimps in the face of EU bullying' be the way of things ???

2. Brexit, if voted for, would not produce a cataclysmic, immediate disenfranchisement from the EU. It'd have to be legislated for (on our side, and theirs). I recall reading that at least two years would be needed to conclude the process.

Now, what might we achieve in that time. Would we be sitting on our hands, immobile, incapable of seeking out alternative markets and making agreements with them ? Why ... in the interim period, the combination of continuing (if only temporarily) trading agreement being honoured, AND the new trade we'd gain, might lead to a limited period of net GAIN for us ... a booming economy, for as long as the interim persisted !!!

Perhaps we'd gain enough to see that gain offset any dips from EU 'punishments' .. ?

1) Does it say all that's correct? Not necessarily. Would England have done the same to Scotland? Probably. The UK is the one leaving and opening itself up to a bag of worms.
The EU can make a treaty with the UK, the EU is in a position of power, the UK is in a position of weakness. Why shouldn't the EU take advantage of this?

2) No, I didn't say it would produce a cataclysmic leaving of the EU. It gives the UK some time. But it also leaves the EU with the ability to sit back and wait.

However, if the UK decides to leave the EU, and it takes 2 years, that's 2 years of unstable markets, that's 2 years of people wondering what will happen. 2 years for companies to reconsider being in the UK, 2 years for a lot of problems for the UK.

 

[Drummond]

What possible freedom do we have for trying to implement any 'plan', for as long as the EU dictates to us ?? We DO NOT HAVE THE FREEDOM to actively plan, as yet. No doubt if we tried, the EU would try to punish us for it ...

Besides, in general terms, it's obvious. One, IF the conditions are favourable enough, we can continue to trade with EU countries. However, we have yet to see how nasty Member States would want to be, how they'd try to punish us, if we successfully obtained our freedom.

The extent of such spiteful activity would determine the extent of our trade with others. It's not as though the rest of the world doesn't exist .. it does. We can, two, trade with it, determining OUR terms for doing so. BUT, only if we're shot of the EU !!

It's a leaving plan. What freedom do you have to make a leaving plan? Quite a lot.

However, if you're suggesting that the Brexit people can't make a leaving plan because they have no idea what the EU is going to do afterwards, you might be right, and it's also a reason why people should seriously be looking at the possibilities.

The Brexit people act like the UK is just going to make trade agreements that are equal to or better than what exists now. Chances are this isn't going to happen. People need to know this.

IF conditions are favorable enough, the UK won't lose half its trade. Wow, that's.... that's...... like jumping off a really high waterfall and hoping to do a perfect 10 dive, chances of survival? 1%.

Yes, spiteful activity. What reason does the EU have to want the UK to do well out of leaving the EU? None. There's no positive for them. They want to see the UK rot, and show all the other countries what happens if you leave the UK. The UK will be the example.

And you want to leave knowing you could lose a lot of trade, causing massive unemployment and problems? You want this?

I've thanked your last post, and for good reason. You've done a lot to acknowledge the true, pernicious, nature of the EU.

'THEY WANT TO SEE THE UK ROT'. H'm. Ever heard of the saying 'With friends like that, who needs enemies' .. ? You concede yourself the malevolent side of EU thinking ... and you insist that we must STILL want to be a part of it ???

Incredible.

Some of us don't want to live our lives ruled, dominated, by foreigners who are perfectly happy to hate our guts, if they find we don't behave as THEY choose us to !!! And I get from your wording that they will happily seize on an opportunity to 'make an example of us', for stepping out of line ? Rather like the Mafia might ... ?

National pride. Seems to me that we have our opportunity to reclaim it, to re-acquaint ourselves with some understanding and experience of some self-respect !! Getting shot of the likes of the EU will serve that aim nicely, it seems to me.

Thank you for making my case for me.

 

[montelatici]

The EU will simply do what it is the interest of the member states. The remaining parts of the UK, if Scotland leaves and joins the EU, will have to negotiate an access arrangement with the EU. The EU has two different types of agreements with European countries one with Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein (EEA) and one with Switzerland. The Swiss one allows less access to the EU than the EEA agreement but Switzerland is allowed to not accept certain EU regulations as national law in Switzerland. The EEA countries have to accept all regulations/laws in practice.

The EU will negotiate a similar arrangement to the UK once it leaves, but the EU will certainly not agree to a better agreement as the EEA countries and Switzerland would ask to renegotiate if the EU did that.

 

[HenryBHough]

Hmm. 1 euro is worth 1.12 USD. Wonder what that was all about?

Last I had to buy cost $1.37. The fall from $1.37 to $1.12, on your planet, is considered a rising Euro?

 

[frigidweirdo]

What possible freedom do we have for trying to implement any 'plan', for as long as the EU dictates to us ?? We DO NOT HAVE THE FREEDOM to actively plan, as yet. No doubt if we tried, the EU would try to punish us for it ...

Besides, in general terms, it's obvious. One, IF the conditions are favourable enough, we can continue to trade with EU countries. However, we have yet to see how nasty Member States would want to be, how they'd try to punish us, if we successfully obtained our freedom.

The extent of such spiteful activity would determine the extent of our trade with others. It's not as though the rest of the world doesn't exist .. it does. We can, two, trade with it, determining OUR terms for doing so. BUT, only if we're shot of the EU !!

It's a leaving plan. What freedom do you have to make a leaving plan? Quite a lot.

However, if you're suggesting that the Brexit people can't make a leaving plan because they have no idea what the EU is going to do afterwards, you might be right, and it's also a reason why people should seriously be looking at the possibilities.

The Brexit people act like the UK is just going to make trade agreements that are equal to or better than what exists now. Chances are this isn't going to happen. People need to know this.

IF conditions are favorable enough, the UK won't lose half its trade. Wow, that's.... that's...... like jumping off a really high waterfall and hoping to do a perfect 10 dive, chances of survival? 1%.

Yes, spiteful activity. What reason does the EU have to want the UK to do well out of leaving the EU? None. There's no positive for them. They want to see the UK rot, and show all the other countries what happens if you leave the UK. The UK will be the example.

And you want to leave knowing you could lose a lot of trade, causing massive unemployment and problems? You want this?

I've thanked your last post, and for good reason. You've done a lot to acknowledge the true, pernicious, nature of the EU.

'THEY WANT TO SEE THE UK ROT'. H'm. Ever heard of the saying 'With friends like that, who needs enemies' .. ? You concede yourself the malevolent side of EU thinking ... and you insist that we must STILL want to be a part of it ???

Incredible.

Some of us don't want to live our lives ruled, dominated, by foreigners who are perfectly happy to hate our guts, if they find we don't behave as THEY choose us to !!! And I get from your wording that they will happily seize on an opportunity to 'make an example of us', for stepping out of line ? Rather like the Mafia might ... ?

National pride. Seems to me that we have our opportunity to reclaim it, to re-acquaint ourselves with some understanding and experience of some self-respect !! Getting shot of the likes of the EU will serve that aim nicely, it seems to me.

Thank you for making my case for me.

Yes, I know what the EU is, I know it is far from perfect and I don't particularly like it.

However, what would you do if someone wanted to leave and you didn't want to see the break up of your union? I didn't say it would happen, but it's a possibility, why? Because this is human nature. If you were against everything that succumbed to human nature you'd have to go be a hermit.

Some don't want their lives ruled, dominated, by foreigners who hate your guts?
What about the Tories? They're just a bunch of Normans who have hated the English, the Scots, the Welsh etc for a long long time.

You want to get "national pride" back? Is this all it is? It's like having a vote to see if England will win the world cup. Get more than 50% and England get to decide they have won it.

This is all Brexit is. People whose lives are pretty miserable, who think that they'll somehow get better lives outside of the EU, but the reality doesn't suggest this is the case (ie, you won't have more money after leaving, the laws will still be made and people will still not like them), so you just stick to things like Churchill, the flag, pride, and all that nationalistic nonsense that doesn't improve people's lives, it just gives them a reason to get drunk.

 

[Drummond]

What possible freedom do we have for trying to implement any 'plan', for as long as the EU dictates to us ?? We DO NOT HAVE THE FREEDOM to actively plan, as yet. No doubt if we tried, the EU would try to punish us for it ...

Besides, in general terms, it's obvious. One, IF the conditions are favourable enough, we can continue to trade with EU countries. However, we have yet to see how nasty Member States would want to be, how they'd try to punish us, if we successfully obtained our freedom.

The extent of such spiteful activity would determine the extent of our trade with others. It's not as though the rest of the world doesn't exist .. it does. We can, two, trade with it, determining OUR terms for doing so. BUT, only if we're shot of the EU !!

It's a leaving plan. What freedom do you have to make a leaving plan? Quite a lot.

However, if you're suggesting that the Brexit people can't make a leaving plan because they have no idea what the EU is going to do afterwards, you might be right, and it's also a reason why people should seriously be looking at the possibilities.

The Brexit people act like the UK is just going to make trade agreements that are equal to or better than what exists now. Chances are this isn't going to happen. People need to know this.

IF conditions are favorable enough, the UK won't lose half its trade. Wow, that's.... that's...... like jumping off a really high waterfall and hoping to do a perfect 10 dive, chances of survival? 1%.

Yes, spiteful activity. What reason does the EU have to want the UK to do well out of leaving the EU? None. There's no positive for them. They want to see the UK rot, and show all the other countries what happens if you leave the UK. The UK will be the example.

And you want to leave knowing you could lose a lot of trade, causing massive unemployment and problems? You want this?

I've thanked your last post, and for good reason. You've done a lot to acknowledge the true, pernicious, nature of the EU.

'THEY WANT TO SEE THE UK ROT'. H'm. Ever heard of the saying 'With friends like that, who needs enemies' .. ? You concede yourself the malevolent side of EU thinking ... and you insist that we must STILL want to be a part of it ???

Incredible.

Some of us don't want to live our lives ruled, dominated, by foreigners who are perfectly happy to hate our guts, if they find we don't behave as THEY choose us to !!! And I get from your wording that they will happily seize on an opportunity to 'make an example of us', for stepping out of line ? Rather like the Mafia might ... ?

National pride. Seems to me that we have our opportunity to reclaim it, to re-acquaint ourselves with some understanding and experience of some self-respect !! Getting shot of the likes of the EU will serve that aim nicely, it seems to me.

Thank you for making my case for me.

Yes, I know what the EU is, I know it is far from perfect and I don't particularly like it.

However, what would you do if someone wanted to leave and you didn't want to see the break up of your union? I didn't say it would happen, but it's a possibility, why? Because this is human nature. If you were against everything that succumbed to human nature you'd have to go be a hermit.

Some don't want their lives ruled, dominated, by foreigners who hate your guts?
What about the Tories? They're just a bunch of Normans who have hated the English, the Scots, the Welsh etc for a long long time.

You want to get "national pride" back? Is this all it is? It's like having a vote to see if England will win the world cup. Get more than 50% and England get to decide they have won it.

This is all Brexit is. People whose lives are pretty miserable, who think that they'll somehow get better lives outside of the EU, but the reality doesn't suggest this is the case (ie, you won't have more money after leaving, the laws will still be made and people will still not like them), so you just stick to things like Churchill, the flag, pride, and all that nationalistic nonsense that doesn't improve people's lives, it just gives them a reason to get drunk.

Answering 'what would you do if someone wanted to leave and you didn't want to see the break up of your union?' .. I can tell you what I wouldn't do. I'd not behave like some latter-day Hitler, determined to viciously punish a Nation State daring to have the sheer temerity to defy my rule !! And let's say you were talking about a 'union', i.e a TRADE Union. Do such Unions punish members who decide to be ex-members, or do they just accept it ?

Perhaps, instead of 'punishing', they attempt instead to make membership too attractive an option to defy ? Rather than just meting out a whole lot of nastiness ....

... still. This IS the EU we're really talking about ... !!! ......

What about the Tories, you say. I echo the question. What ABOUT them ? Since when were they relevant, in the sense being examined in this thread .. apart from allowing us a Referendum in the first place ? The pros and cons of EU membership aren't characterised by your personal assessment of the British Conservative Party !!

I see nothing wrong with national pride. WHY DO YOU ? Why, in your universe, is this any form of lamentable thing ? Doesn't the UK have a right to pride ? To a feeling of self-worth ? As well as being subsumed under the dictatorship of the EU, must we bury our sense of identity, too, and consider it worthless ? Is THIS what you expect ???

If, by your reckoning, 'Brexiters' lead miserable lives .. they currently do so whilst under the dominion of the EU. What does that say for the worth of our existence as members ?? Perhaps ... the key to improving their lives (and everyone else's on this side of the Channel) would be to regain national pride. National identity. FREEDOM to rule OURSELVES, forge our OWN path ... ? Is that really so terrible, is it too lamentable a path to dare to tread ??

You call nationalism 'nonsense'. Indeed ? OK, expand it to a future where the EU has realised its dream and become a single, indivisible political entity. Should it feel 'guilty' about pride in its own identity ? Would you disapprove of it, if it did feel such 'pride' ? Fact is that your dismisiveness towards 'nonsense nationalism' is no more than a convenient device you're employing to shift emotionalism to a direction of your choosing. I say this: the UK has a right to exist, feel pride in itself, work towards self rule, work towards its political freedom from a political entity that, as you've said yourself, would be happy to see us rot if we did too much to defy it !!

Your remaining argumentation relies on scaremongering, and sapping our confidence in ourselves to succeed on our own merits (which is insulting, isn't it ?). You've no basis for supposing we are incapable of thriving outside of the EU. Other countries manage it ... so can we.

 

[Phoenall]

They cant as the EU rules will not allow them to do so, The price is set and that is what it has to sell for. If the UK leaves they are no longer constrained by the rules and can sell for what they want.

Yes when the Eastern European nations joined trade with them increased and some people became very rich in the process. Now they are struggling to attract buyers for their produce because it is of such poor quality, they are forced to put country of origin on the packaging so many people wont now buy these goods. The people being poor did not buy much from the EU and found most of the edible produce to be tasteless and poor.

Trade wont change as the nations will need to buy our goods before we buy theirs, if they refuse we walk away and go elsewhere.I am sure we can do without golden delicious apples and straight cucumbers for a few weeks until ours become ripe. Or we can go to Israel for their fresh fruits ?

Except if A) the UK govt decides to impose such limits and B) if the UK ends up in a deal with the EU that constrains UK businesses.

I don't just mean products going from east to west, mainly I mean west to east, they were buying UK products. Now, if those products rise in price, will they continue to buy from the UK?

You say trade won't change. You're not being realistic at all. Trade WILL change, of course it will. Even the Brexit people know it will change, and it will almost certainly change for the worst for the UK. It might also effect the EU.

Like that BBC article I posted said, the chances of the EU trying to "punish" the UK for leaving is quite high, even if they would suffer a little.

Scotland would suffer a LOT.

They wont rise they will drop, and this is what the problem is. The prices are kept artificially high so that farmers in richer nations can still make a profit. This was a constraint on normal business practices so that French and German farmers could compete unfairly with farmers on poorer nations. Things like washing machines, dishwashers, fridges etc. all had a minimum price set to accommodate the "richer" nations. So why would a consumer buy a washing machine made in the EU costing $250 when the British one identical down to name would cost $175. So yes trade will change over time, but initially the biggest change will be in pricing of EU goods down to compete in a free market, and the items from non EU sources available in the shops.
The EU will suffer much more than the UK will when it has to increase the "donations" from member states to cover the costs lost from the UK exit. Why would Scotland suffer more when they will be cushioned by the UK rising economy and not the EU falling economy. Look it up and see how the general EU economy is dropping and holding back the UK economy

 

[Phoenall]

What possible freedom do we have for trying to implement any 'plan', for as long as the EU dictates to us ?? We DO NOT HAVE THE FREEDOM to actively plan, as yet. No doubt if we tried, the EU would try to punish us for it ...

Besides, in general terms, it's obvious. One, IF the conditions are favourable enough, we can continue to trade with EU countries. However, we have yet to see how nasty Member States would want to be, how they'd try to punish us, if we successfully obtained our freedom.

The extent of such spiteful activity would determine the extent of our trade with others. It's not as though the rest of the world doesn't exist .. it does. We can, two, trade with it, determining OUR terms for doing so. BUT, only if we're shot of the EU !!

It's a leaving plan. What freedom do you have to make a leaving plan? Quite a lot.

However, if you're suggesting that the Brexit people can't make a leaving plan because they have no idea what the EU is going to do afterwards, you might be right, and it's also a reason why people should seriously be looking at the possibilities.

The Brexit people act like the UK is just going to make trade agreements that are equal to or better than what exists now. Chances are this isn't going to happen. People need to know this.

IF conditions are favorable enough, the UK won't lose half its trade. Wow, that's.... that's...... like jumping off a really high waterfall and hoping to do a perfect 10 dive, chances of survival? 1%.

Yes, spiteful activity. What reason does the EU have to want the UK to do well out of leaving the EU? None. There's no positive for them. They want to see the UK rot, and show all the other countries what happens if you leave the UK. The UK will be the example.

And you want to leave knowing you could lose a lot of trade, causing massive unemployment and problems? You want this?

If you can forecast the future so well why aren't you a multi billionaire.

We have trade now because Europe needs our products, that will not change if we leave they will still need our products. If the UK loses half of its trade so will the EU as it is a two way street, and Europe is running on a thin line after taking on far too many poor Eastern European nations. They hoped to put a buffer zone between Russia and the West using these former soviet satellite nations and failed. If they can find a way to offload them without seeming arrogant and nasty then they should do so. The Syrian crisis has shown that the EU failed on its border security because it never implemented the multi national armed force it promised.

What I'm forecasting is very vague. I'm suggesting a lot of possibilities, not saying exactly what will happen.

Yes, the EU wants our products and we want their products.

However you have lots of different possibilities out there.

1) The EU will try and hurt the UK by being tough when negotiating a new trade agreement so that UK business will have to pay tariffs on their goods going to the EU.

2) The pound will drop in order to accommodate tariffs and the like, and this will lose the UK a lot of money. I posted that a 1% drop in the pound against the Euro will lose the UK more money than the net spending on the EU. a 5% will cause massive unemployment along with a devalued pound which makes everyone poorer anyway.

3) The UK (with a government that is pro-EU whichever gets elected) will choose to join the Schengen Zone in order to have good trade, which will lose the UK a lot less in trade, but which is a WORSE situation for immigration.

Here are some. In order for the UK not to lose out economically, the UK has to accept what the EU is offering and that the Brexit people won't like.

In just about every possibility, there is no win/win for the UK. Either they lose economically or they lose by being controlled more by the EU.

So we impose our own tariffs on the EU goods coming to the UK. The same goods that they are pricing out of the market made in the UK, so that trade stops and the EU is the loser.

Currency fluctuates all the time and the Euro more so than any other. If the £ drops then the costs of overseas travel will rise and less people will go. Foreign goods will increase in price meaning less will be sold and imports will stop. The UK economy will drop slightly but the EU even more when the other currencies rise against the Euro .

Why will we accept the very thing that has forced us to look at leaving, control of our borders. Without the Schengen zone we will be controlling our borders once again and we will be stopping 90% of migrants after a free ride. If the EU had allowed the UK to impose the same laws that France and Germany have in place then there would be no problems, but they did not want to lose their dumping ground and so forced the issue. Now they are seeing the folly of their ways and will have to pay the price.

We don't have to accept what they are offering as we can go elsewhere to new markets that have tried to trade with the UK in the last ten years. The EU has to face facts that they could lose 30% of its income and so go bust. The east of Europe is turning because of the muslim crisis and they want action from Brussels to turn the tide, they want control of their borders back. If it is not forthcoming watch them start to leave the EU, putting even more strain on the EU rules and laws.