Italy Death Rate Hits 7%

[ElmerMudd]

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

Outbreak Investigations

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

This is close to the analysis I summarize but it provides the same conclusions.
Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

As a beginning, let’s briefly compare the COVID19 to an older fatal virus-Ebola. Ebola is not a new disease (first cases were identified in 1976) but in 2014 and 2018 it erupted again until these days.
* The fatality rate of EBOV is much higher and may reach a 75% death case comparing to ~2.7% death of COVID19. It must be noted that COVID19 is an ongoing disease so the fatality rate is not final and will most likely increase.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

In conclusion, our estimates of the risk for death from COVID-19 in China as of February 11, 2020, were as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and as low as ≈1% in the less severely affected areas in China. Because the risk for death from COVID-19 is probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e., vaccination and antiviral drugs), enhanced public health interventions (including social distancing measures, quarantine, enhanced infection control in healthcare settings, and movement restrictions), as well as enhanced hygienic measures in the general population and an increase in healthcare system capacity, should be implemented to rapidly contain the epidemic.


In South Korea it was 0.7% with far more tests done........
The CDC article shows their testing methods..........and how they get the rate....

The NUMBERS from different centers and studies ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.........That is my point.

I read somewhere that you can also get it twice. There is some immunity if you had it, but not total.

I had not heard that. That is concerning. the virus is here to stay but with natural immunity and a vaccine it should move into the category of a bad flu.

 

[Norman]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

Avoid crowded areas, wash your hands, have some food available.

This is hell? Kids are calling it the great vacation.

 

[Polishprince]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

I don't think the 7% is a realistic number at all. There are numerous individuals in Italy as well as in America, I'm sure who have been infected with coronavirus and haven't been to a doctor. If someone has a mild respiratory illness, they probably wouldn't bother consulting a physician or getting tested.

 

[ElmerMudd]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

You are the moron. See what has been done in China, South Korea and Italy. And what is being done throughout europe.
Stupidity is more lethal than the coronavirus.

 

[ElmerMudd]

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

I don't think the 7% is a realistic number at all. There are numerous individuals in Italy as well as in America, I'm sure who have been infected with coronavirus and haven't been to a doctor. If someone has a mild respiratory illness, they probably wouldn't bother consulting a physician or getting tested.

I agree that the ultimate mortality rate could be closer to 1% but use that measurement with the virus spreading in a virgin population and appears to be more contagious than most flus, you have a big problem.

 

[eagle1462010]

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

Outbreak Investigations

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

This is close to the analysis I summarize but it provides the same conclusions.
Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

As a beginning, let’s briefly compare the COVID19 to an older fatal virus-Ebola. Ebola is not a new disease (first cases were identified in 1976) but in 2014 and 2018 it erupted again until these days.
* The fatality rate of EBOV is much higher and may reach a 75% death case comparing to ~2.7% death of COVID19. It must be noted that COVID19 is an ongoing disease so the fatality rate is not final and will most likely increase.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

In conclusion, our estimates of the risk for death from COVID-19 in China as of February 11, 2020, were as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and as low as ≈1% in the less severely affected areas in China. Because the risk for death from COVID-19 is probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e., vaccination and antiviral drugs), enhanced public health interventions (including social distancing measures, quarantine, enhanced infection control in healthcare settings, and movement restrictions), as well as enhanced hygienic measures in the general population and an increase in healthcare system capacity, should be implemented to rapidly contain the epidemic.


In South Korea it was 0.7% with far more tests done........
The CDC article shows their testing methods..........and how they get the rate....

The NUMBERS from different centers and studies ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.........That is my point.

Yes but all of the preliminary numbers leave no doubt that if there is not serious mitigation we will have a disaster.
The mitigation is going to cause great short term damage to the economy and our daily lives but if we do not do it, the long term damage will be worse

Of COURSE......and we are trying to mitigate it...........but putting out high numbers only leads to HYSTERIA..................and runs on the grocery stores..........We already have that.............PANIC AND CHAOS fueled by the MEDIA isn't the answer..............and THAT IS PRECISELY WHAT WE HAVE.

 

[ElmerMudd]

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

Avoid crowded areas, wash your hands, have some food available.

This is hell? Kids are calling it the great vacation.

Norman, I like it!

 

[eagle1462010]

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

Avoid crowded areas, wash your hands, have some food available.

This is hell? Kids are calling it the great vacation.

And that should be all the Media along with closures should be doing now.............Not the crazy assed POLITICS they are doing.......

There actions INCREASE THE ECONOMIC DAMAGE.

 

[ElmerMudd]

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

Outbreak Investigations

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

This is close to the analysis I summarize but it provides the same conclusions.
Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

As a beginning, let’s briefly compare the COVID19 to an older fatal virus-Ebola. Ebola is not a new disease (first cases were identified in 1976) but in 2014 and 2018 it erupted again until these days.
* The fatality rate of EBOV is much higher and may reach a 75% death case comparing to ~2.7% death of COVID19. It must be noted that COVID19 is an ongoing disease so the fatality rate is not final and will most likely increase.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

In conclusion, our estimates of the risk for death from COVID-19 in China as of February 11, 2020, were as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and as low as ≈1% in the less severely affected areas in China. Because the risk for death from COVID-19 is probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e., vaccination and antiviral drugs), enhanced public health interventions (including social distancing measures, quarantine, enhanced infection control in healthcare settings, and movement restrictions), as well as enhanced hygienic measures in the general population and an increase in healthcare system capacity, should be implemented to rapidly contain the epidemic.


In South Korea it was 0.7% with far more tests done........
The CDC article shows their testing methods..........and how they get the rate....

The NUMBERS from different centers and studies ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.........That is my point.

Yes but all of the preliminary numbers leave no doubt that if there is not serious mitigation we will have a disaster.
The mitigation is going to cause great short term damage to the economy and our daily lives but if we do not do it, the long term damage will be worse

Of COURSE......and we are trying to mitigate it...........but putting out high numbers only leads to HYSTERIA..................and runs on the grocery stores..........We already have that.............PANIC AND CHAOS fueled by the MEDIA isn't the answer..............and THAT IS PRECISELY WHAT WE HAVE.

I agree that people need to do their own homework to understand completely. Bad information is dangerous. It goes both ways, making it a bigger problem than it is and also describing it at less than a problem than it is.
The bigger problem is if people do not take the instructions given by the doctors and scientists.

 

[dblack]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

*yawn* - more excuses.

Trump's first thoughts and reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic were focused purely on how it would affect him politically. Even now, it's a constant stream of excuses. He's a horrible leader with no dignity, no shame, no sense of responsibility or accountability. I really do not understand the people who continue to support him. Are they really that afraid of Democrats? Surely they can find someone better than Trump. Why don't they even try? We really need them to.

 

[eagle1462010]

You are the moron. See what has been done in China, South Korea and Italy. And what is being done throughout europe.
Stupidity is more lethal than the coronavirus.

Baloney.................You want people to go look at something YELL FIRE................

That is what the Media is doing.

FIRE.........FIRE.......FIRE........

It's BS..........I've been on many threads .....and this one on South Korea........
South Korea Leads the world in Corona virus testing
And they have a LOW MORTALITY RATE.........with MORE TESTING than most other countries..........They have test kits to 1 million tests available a week............and that is how they handled this........

NOT THE SKY IS FALLING THING we have now.

 

[Polishprince]

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

Outbreak Investigations

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

This is close to the analysis I summarize but it provides the same conclusions.
Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

As a beginning, let’s briefly compare the COVID19 to an older fatal virus-Ebola. Ebola is not a new disease (first cases were identified in 1976) but in 2014 and 2018 it erupted again until these days.
* The fatality rate of EBOV is much higher and may reach a 75% death case comparing to ~2.7% death of COVID19. It must be noted that COVID19 is an ongoing disease so the fatality rate is not final and will most likely increase.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

In conclusion, our estimates of the risk for death from COVID-19 in China as of February 11, 2020, were as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and as low as ≈1% in the less severely affected areas in China. Because the risk for death from COVID-19 is probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e., vaccination and antiviral drugs), enhanced public health interventions (including social distancing measures, quarantine, enhanced infection control in healthcare settings, and movement restrictions), as well as enhanced hygienic measures in the general population and an increase in healthcare system capacity, should be implemented to rapidly contain the epidemic.


In South Korea it was 0.7% with far more tests done........
The CDC article shows their testing methods..........and how they get the rate....

The NUMBERS from different centers and studies ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.........That is my point.

Yes but all of the preliminary numbers leave no doubt that if there is not serious mitigation we will have a disaster.
The mitigation is going to cause great short term damage to the economy and our daily lives but if we do not do it, the long term damage will be worse

Of COURSE......and we are trying to mitigate it...........but putting out high numbers only leads to HYSTERIA..................and runs on the grocery stores..........We already have that.............PANIC AND CHAOS fueled by the MEDIA isn't the answer..............and THAT IS PRECISELY WHAT WE HAVE.

The media is doing a tremendous job in stirring up panic among the General Population in regards to this bug. Their hope, their dream , is to create Economic Collapse in America so that they can blame it on Trump and Sleepy Joe will be the new FDR to lead the country into a Raw Deal and a new World War.

But if people would step back and sober up, they'd realize that even a majority of the very old- and almost all of the youths - would be able to survive this virus no problem.

 

[xyz]

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

Avoid crowded areas, wash your hands, have some food available.

This is hell? Kids are calling it the great vacation.

And that should be all the Media along with closures should be doing now.............Not the crazy assed POLITICS they are doing.......

There actions INCREASE THE ECONOMIC DAMAGE.

No doubt, but in the long run it could be worse. Not to mention hospitals being unable to cope.

People should avoid taking too many trips to contain the disease.

Also, testing too many people for the virus can actually increase the risk.

 

[eagle1462010]

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

*yawn* - more excuses.

Trump's first thoughts and reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic were focused purely on how it would affect him politically. Even now, it's a constant stream of excuses. He's a horrible leader with no dignity, no shame, no sense of responsibility or accountability. I really do not understand the people who continue to support him. Are they really that afraid of Democrats? Surely they can find someone better than Trump. Why don't they even try? We really need them to.

And here you play the same damned game.................Trump did the travel ban to China AGAINST WHO ....World Health Organization........and was later told he did the right thing. Biden played the xenophobia BS..............

He also did the Quaranteens...............and did the Emergency Powers Act early for Disaster Relief Resources and allowing across State Line business for the virus VERY EARLY....Allowed Funding, and less Regs to fight the virus.............

8 Billion already passed.........for assistance along with the Billions in FEMA disaster relief funds..........
Asking for 50 billion to ease the economic pain of this..........

He has done a good job.............and yet the Media has nonstop attacked him.

Results..............the virus Blew up in Europe..............hasn't here yet............It has bought us TIME.......Europe listened to the WHO.......how are they doing now........hmmm

 

[eagle1462010]

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

Avoid crowded areas, wash your hands, have some food available.

This is hell? Kids are calling it the great vacation.

And that should be all the Media along with closures should be doing now.............Not the crazy assed POLITICS they are doing.......

There actions INCREASE THE ECONOMIC DAMAGE.

No doubt, but in the long run it could be worse. Not to mention hospitals being unable to cope.

People should avoid taking too many trips to contain the disease.

Also, testing too many people for the virus can actually increase the risk.

Of course on containment..........that is VERY REASONABLE and Makes perfect sense......

If we learn from SOUTH KOREA......they set up mobile drive through testing for the disease to stop that risk of more getting it from testing.....

It\s in the thread I posted just a moment ago.

 

[toobfreak]

Don't you think it's a little disingenuous to post those statistics.

I read that 7% of Italy is dying. Which I know it isn't. But it sure seems like a stupid title.

Next. You have a concentrated area that has many factors which could be causing the high rate...not to mention they got started early (which bring a whole lot of issues).

If true, I'm buying myself a little villa in Tuscany. Cheap.

 

[eagle1462010]

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

*yawn* - more excuses.

Trump's first thoughts and reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic were focused purely on how it would affect him politically. Even now, it's a constant stream of excuses. He's a horrible leader with no dignity, no shame, no sense of responsibility or accountability. I really do not understand the people who continue to support him. Are they really that afraid of Democrats? Surely they can find someone better than Trump. Why don't they even try? We really need them to.

And here you play the same damned game.................Trump did the travel ban to China AGAINST WHO ....World Health Organization........and was later told he did the right thing. Biden played the xenophobia BS..............

He also did the Quaranteens...............and did the Emergency Powers Act early for Disaster Relief Resources and allowing across State Line business for the virus VERY EARLY....Allowed Funding, and less Regs to fight the virus.............

8 Billion already passed.........for assistance along with the Billions in FEMA disaster relief funds..........
Asking for 50 billion to ease the economic pain of this..........

He has done a good job.............and yet the Media has nonstop attacked him.

Results..............the virus Blew up in Europe..............hasn't here yet............It has bought us TIME.......Europe listened to the WHO.......how are they doing now........hmmm

I'm done reading the strained, idiotic excuses. It's essentially arguing religion with you people. You believe in Trump and will never, ever, acknowledge his failures. For that, I can only say fuck you very much.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

You start by saying more data is necessary and then you jump to actions being warranted by current data. You contradict yourself.

 

[dblack]

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

*yawn* - more excuses.

Trump's first thoughts and reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic were focused purely on how it would affect him politically. Even now, it's a constant stream of excuses. He's a horrible leader with no dignity, no shame, no sense of responsibility or accountability. I really do not understand the people who continue to support him. Are they really that afraid of Democrats? Surely they can find someone better than Trump. Why don't they even try? We really need them to.

And here you play the same damned game.................Trump did the travel ban to China AGAINST WHO ....World Health Organization........and was later told he did the right thing. Biden played the xenophobia BS..............

He also did the Quaranteens...............and did the Emergency Powers Act early for Disaster Relief Resources and allowing across State Line business for the virus VERY EARLY....Allowed Funding, and less Regs to fight the virus.............

8 Billion already passed.........for assistance along with the Billions in FEMA disaster relief funds..........
Asking for 50 billion to ease the economic pain of this..........

He has done a good job.............and yet the Media has nonstop attacked him.

Results..............the virus Blew up in Europe..............hasn't here yet............It has bought us TIME.......Europe listened to the WHO.......how are they doing now........hmmm

I'm done reading the strained, idiotic excuses. It's essentially arguing religion with you people. You believe in Trump and will never, ever, acknowledge his failures. For that, I can only say fuck you very much.

Sorry. That was over the top. But it's getting so tiresome listening to these brain dead people parroting Trump's excuses.

 

[Persistence Of Memory]

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

Outbreak Investigations

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

This is close to the analysis I summarize but it provides the same conclusions.
Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

As a beginning, let’s briefly compare the COVID19 to an older fatal virus-Ebola. Ebola is not a new disease (first cases were identified in 1976) but in 2014 and 2018 it erupted again until these days.
* The fatality rate of EBOV is much higher and may reach a 75% death case comparing to ~2.7% death of COVID19. It must be noted that COVID19 is an ongoing disease so the fatality rate is not final and will most likely increase.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

In conclusion, our estimates of the risk for death from COVID-19 in China as of February 11, 2020, were as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and as low as ≈1% in the less severely affected areas in China. Because the risk for death from COVID-19 is probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e., vaccination and antiviral drugs), enhanced public health interventions (including social distancing measures, quarantine, enhanced infection control in healthcare settings, and movement restrictions), as well as enhanced hygienic measures in the general population and an increase in healthcare system capacity, should be implemented to rapidly contain the epidemic.


In South Korea it was 0.7% with far more tests done........
The CDC article shows their testing methods..........and how they get the rate....

The NUMBERS from different centers and studies ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.........That is my point.

Yes but all of the preliminary numbers leave no doubt that if there is not serious mitigation we will have a disaster.
The mitigation is going to cause great short term damage to the economy and our daily lives but if we do not do it, the long term damage will be worse

Of COURSE......and we are trying to mitigate it...........but putting out high numbers only leads to HYSTERIA..................and runs on the grocery stores..........We already have that.............PANIC AND CHAOS fueled by the MEDIA isn't the answer..............and THAT IS PRECISELY WHAT WE HAVE.

The media is doing a tremendous job in stirring up panic among the General Population in regards to this bug. Their hope, their dream , is to create Economic Collapse in America so that they can blame it on Trump and Sleepy Joe will be the new FDR to lead the country into a Raw Deal and a new World War.

But if people would step back and sober up, they'd realize that even a majority of the very old- and almost all of the youths - would be able to survive this virus no problem.

Just think we might have really prevented this if we weren't 100% focused on a fake impeachment. Sad how many Schiff killed.