Italy Death Rate Hits 7%

[eagle1462010]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The 7% is based against a number in question since so many can have the virus and not know it.

Actually, the article makes that crystal clear. Maybe if had read it before vomiting the first thought that fizzles into your colon, you wouldn't say such dumb things.

 

[Likkmee]

I wonder when Protecting and Serving will have a shower related epidemic ? W/ lifetime disability .

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

The 7% is based against a number in question since so many can have the virus and not know it.

Actually, the article makes that crystal clear. Maybe if had read it before vomiting the first thought that fizzles into your colon, you wouldn't say such dumb things.

The article nor Italy have the necessary data to make that clear. You’re a dupe.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The article nor Italy have the necessary data to make that clear.

Yes, that is what the article says. May I suggest you actually read it before opening your dumbass mouth again...?

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

The article nor Italy have the necessary data to make that clear.

Yes, that is what the article says. May I suggest you actually read it before opening your dumbass mouth again...?

The article has no definitive number of those carrying the virus. Nor does Italy. Nor do most countries.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The article has no definitive number of those carrying the virus.

Right. The article makes that clear. Fuck man, do you have any shame at all? Read it before saying another word.

 

[harmonica]

Just the flu folks...

‘Not a wave, a tsunami.’ Italy hospitals at virus limit

Italy’s high death rate — currently over 7% and double the average globally — has been blamed on its unusually old population, which is second only to Japan’s. But about a third of the ICU patients in Lombardy are aged 50-64, meaning the virus isn’t just striking the very old, but also Italians still in their working prime.

“We are trying to understand why the mortality rate seems so high compared to other countries, and why patients seem more critical than in other countries,” said epidemiologist Paolo D’Ancona at the National Institutes of Health.

As of Friday, Italy had 17,660 positive cases and 1,266 dead, more than any country outside China. Lombardy alone accounts for 55% of the infected and 70% of the dead. The government has imposed a nationwide lockdown, closing stores and restaurants, curbing public transport and telling the population of 60 million to stay home except for absolute need.

'Not a wave, a tsunami.' Italy hospitals at virus limit

The boomer virus...

..Italians have always had a culture for and known to be unsanitary

 

[Polishprince]

Don't you think it's a little disingenuous to post those statistics.

I read that 7% of Italy is dying. Which I know it isn't. But it sure seems like a stupid title.

Next. You have a concentrated area that has many factors which could be causing the high rate...not to mention they got started early (which bring a whole lot of issues).

The title says death RATE, not death TOLL. Further the exact numbers are in the post.

Sorry but if you can't read correctly, that's not on the thread title.

The headline is misleading, even if the information within the article clarifies it. Makes the whole thing just "click bait" get people to look at the story.

When people think of "death rates" , they think of the percentage of the population that will be lost to the pestilence in question. They said that the Black Death had a death rate of 50% in Italy , and its usually assumed that 1/2 the population died from this ancient form of coronavirus.

 

[ElmerMudd]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/mph-modules/ph/outbreak/Outbreak_print.html

[URL='https://time.com/5799586/italy-coronavirus-outbreak/']Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

This is close to the analysis I summarize but it provides the same conclusions.
Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread[/URL]

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

The article has no definitive number of those carrying the virus.

Right. The article makes that clear. Fuck man, do you have any shame at all? Read it before saying another word.

Then quote the part of the article that lists the necessary data. How many people there have the virus? Where does it report that on the article? It doesn’t.

 

[ElmerMudd]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

 

[ElmerMudd]

The article has no definitive number of those carrying the virus.

Right. The article makes that clear. Fuck man, do you have any shame at all? Read it before saying another word.

Then quote the part of the article that lists the necessary data. How many people there have the virus? Where does it report that on the article? It doesn’t.

This is close to the analysis I summarize but it provides the same conclusions.
Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

 

[Polishprince]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

That's certainly your opinion. But personally, I see a lot of unwarranted panic out there and a lot of blaming of the President for this pestilence.

If you look back at the news reports back in 1349 when the Black Death became popular, people weren't nearly as frantic, not nearly as political, as they are today. Even though the CV doesn't look like to me to even be reaching the previous levels.

 

[ElmerMudd]

Don't you think it's a little disingenuous to post those statistics.

I read that 7% of Italy is dying. Which I know it isn't. But it sure seems like a stupid title.

Next. You have a concentrated area that has many factors which could be causing the high rate...not to mention they got started early (which bring a whole lot of issues).

The title says death RATE, not death TOLL. Further the exact numbers are in the post.

Sorry but if you can't read correctly, that's not on the thread title.

The headline is misleading, even if the information within the article clarifies it. Makes the whole thing just "click bait" get people to look at the story.

When people think of "death rates" , they think of the percentage of the population that will be lost to the pestilence in question. They said that the Black Death had a death rate of 50% in Italy , and its usually assumed that 1/2 the population died from this ancient form of coronavirus.

Another example of simplistic two variable analysis of a situation that requires multiple variable to understand. I have provided the analysis in the simplist way possible along with an article making a more complex explanation.
Do you think politicians from both sides would be taking the actions if they have not seen the same analysis and bought into it.

 

[eagle1462010]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

Outbreak Investigations
http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/mph-modules/ph/outbreak/Outbreak_print.html

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

This is close to the analysis I summarize but it provides the same conclusions.
Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

As a beginning, let’s briefly compare the COVID19 to an older fatal virus-Ebola. Ebola is not a new disease (first cases were identified in 1976) but in 2014 and 2018 it erupted again until these days.
* The fatality rate of EBOV is much higher and may reach a 75% death case comparing to ~2.7% death of COVID19. It must be noted that COVID19 is an ongoing disease so the fatality rate is not final and will most likely increase.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

In conclusion, our estimates of the risk for death from COVID-19 in China as of February 11, 2020, were as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and as low as ≈1% in the less severely affected areas in China. Because the risk for death from COVID-19 is probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e., vaccination and antiviral drugs), enhanced public health interventions (including social distancing measures, quarantine, enhanced infection control in healthcare settings, and movement restrictions), as well as enhanced hygienic measures in the general population and an increase in healthcare system capacity, should be implemented to rapidly contain the epidemic.


In South Korea it was 0.7% with far more tests done........
The CDC article shows their testing methods..........and how they get the rate....

The NUMBERS from different centers and studies ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.........That is my point.

 

[xyz]

Don't you think it's a little disingenuous to post those statistics.

I read that 7% of Italy is dying. Which I know it isn't. But it sure seems like a stupid title.

Next. You have a concentrated area that has many factors which could be causing the high rate...not to mention they got started early (which bring a whole lot of issues).

The title says death RATE, not death TOLL. Further the exact numbers are in the post.

Sorry but if you can't read correctly, that's not on the thread title.

The headline is misleading, even if the information within the article clarifies it. Makes the whole thing just "click bait" get people to look at the story.

When people think of "death rates" , they think of the percentage of the population that will be lost to the pestilence in question. They said that the Black Death had a death rate of 50% in Italy , and its usually assumed that 1/2 the population died from this ancient form of coronavirus.

Another example of simplistic two variable analysis of a situation that requires multiple variable to understand. I have provided the analysis in the simplist way possible along with an article making a more complex explanation.
Do you think politicians from both sides would be taking the actions if they have not seen the same analysis and bought into it.

You know the sh*t's serious when Trump bans travel to countries where he owns properties, like the UK and Ireland. At first, he wouldn't do it, even if the UK was still in the top 5 European countries with the most cases.

 

[eagle1462010]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

This thread is about the death Rate..............Mortality Rate they usually like to say.

I don't believe the rate is that high..............My reasons......the last article a good reason.....the Disease control people were saying that...........and the fact that only 1% of the population were tested from the other site...........

There is NO WAY they Really know how many have had it already...or even have it now......Only those tested are DATA..............so it's a best guess.

Death rate is only one metric. The analytics use multiple metrics. Granted, these metrics are not exact and will change as they receive more data, but the standard deviation of current estimates provides enough information to warrnt the actions being taken currently.

Of Course and every country on earth is trying to limit the spread..................but at least most of them aren't acting like COMPLETE MORONS like here in the UNITED STATES..........

Politics from HELL and a MEDIA HYPING THE DANG THING UP...........and accusing Trump of everything in the book.........Then the markets crash and THEY GO LOOK WHAT TRUMP DID.

IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE.............and in the end the Mortality Rate will be a BEST GUESS.......because they have no way of knowing how many had it and didn't get recorded...........as I have shown in this very thread..............ITALY is SAYING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED.......

So how do we know the 7% is ACCURATE.......WE DON'T........And it causes FEAR AND PANIC..........Which is NOT WHAT IS NEEDED NOW.........That needs to END.

 

[xyz]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

Outbreak Investigations

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

This is close to the analysis I summarize but it provides the same conclusions.
Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

As a beginning, let’s briefly compare the COVID19 to an older fatal virus-Ebola. Ebola is not a new disease (first cases were identified in 1976) but in 2014 and 2018 it erupted again until these days.
* The fatality rate of EBOV is much higher and may reach a 75% death case comparing to ~2.7% death of COVID19. It must be noted that COVID19 is an ongoing disease so the fatality rate is not final and will most likely increase.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

In conclusion, our estimates of the risk for death from COVID-19 in China as of February 11, 2020, were as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and as low as ≈1% in the less severely affected areas in China. Because the risk for death from COVID-19 is probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e., vaccination and antiviral drugs), enhanced public health interventions (including social distancing measures, quarantine, enhanced infection control in healthcare settings, and movement restrictions), as well as enhanced hygienic measures in the general population and an increase in healthcare system capacity, should be implemented to rapidly contain the epidemic.


In South Korea it was 0.7% with far more tests done........
The CDC article shows their testing methods..........and how they get the rate....

The NUMBERS from different centers and studies ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.........That is my point.

I read somewhere that you can also get it twice. There is some immunity if you had it, but not total.

 

[ElmerMudd]

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

Outbreak Investigations

Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?
Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.



Italy itself SAYS WHAT I'M SAYING.............They say they think many got treated for the Flu.....and may have actually had the Coronavirus........

Proving what I'm saying here..........HOW MANY HAD IT..........HAVE IT.........AND AREN'T RECORDED.

Most cases of the flu are also not recorded, but yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

You need to educate yourself. Your simple analysis results in an incorrect conclusion. You need to consider all metrics in epidemic analytics. You are only looking at total deaths. You need to factor the number of individuals in the population that are susceptible to the disease, how contagious and how deadly the virus is.
You are trying to do an analysis using addition and subtraction only. You need to use calculus to obtain a correct conclusion. Not, literally but you hear what I am saying.

O.k., do you have a link making sense of that statement, one that is not Breitbart?

This is close to the analysis I summarize but it provides the same conclusions.
Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

Using Kalman Filter to Predict Corona Virus Spread

As a beginning, let’s briefly compare the COVID19 to an older fatal virus-Ebola. Ebola is not a new disease (first cases were identified in 1976) but in 2014 and 2018 it erupted again until these days.
* The fatality rate of EBOV is much higher and may reach a 75% death case comparing to ~2.7% death of COVID19. It must be noted that COVID19 is an ongoing disease so the fatality rate is not final and will most likely increase.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

In conclusion, our estimates of the risk for death from COVID-19 in China as of February 11, 2020, were as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and as low as ≈1% in the less severely affected areas in China. Because the risk for death from COVID-19 is probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e., vaccination and antiviral drugs), enhanced public health interventions (including social distancing measures, quarantine, enhanced infection control in healthcare settings, and movement restrictions), as well as enhanced hygienic measures in the general population and an increase in healthcare system capacity, should be implemented to rapidly contain the epidemic.


In South Korea it was 0.7% with far more tests done........
The CDC article shows their testing methods..........and how they get the rate....

The NUMBERS from different centers and studies ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.........That is my point.

Yes but all of the preliminary numbers leave no doubt that if there is not serious mitigation we will have a disaster.
The mitigation is going to cause great short term damage to the economy and our daily lives but if we do not do it, the long term damage will be worse