Question for Republicans : Can Trump Win?

[MisterBeale]

It all depends on what the Fed does next year.

 

[wihosa]

It doesn't look like they're going to do anything, rates are staying the same for the foreseeable future.

If the economy stays the same or improves the GOP will have a very tough time of it.

 

[007]

Of course he can win, and will. Stop and think... NO ONE, I repeat, NO ONE, has ever had such a huge lead and maintained it like he has for this long, which means it isn't going to fade. The people that are supporting him aren't likely to change their mind. He tapped into them early on the issues they feel are important, and that isn't going to change, so yes, he can win and most likely will.

The only other two that even have a remote chance are Cruz and Carson, and as far as I'm concerned with Trump, Cruz and Carson, its a WIN, WIN, WIN for conservatives.

While he has maintained a substantial lead now for months he has never cracked 30% in the polls, at least that I've seen. Meanwhile, Hillary is over 50% in many polls. If Hillary gets the nomination most Bernie supporters like me will happily vote for Hillary over any GOP candidate, few will stay home. With the vote so spread out in the Republican Party I'm not so sure that establishment types and evangelicals will find Trump palatable and may loose enthusiasm and stay home.

Trump has more support than any republican has had in an election in DECADES, and that includes by some DEMOCRATS, some of which I know personally, that have voted democrat all their life, but they don't like ANY of the dem candidates, ESPECIALLY Hitlery, and Hitlery does NOT have the support of the young left voter. So your optimism is a little cockeyed. Understandable though, I know it's going to be hard for you progs to see your power stripped away, but, that's the way it goes. You'll all have to find a way to deal with it.

 

[wihosa]

I think you got your facts wrong, Gallup poll for Oct 17, 2012 had Romney up over Obama 50/46. That would be about twice what Trump is polling now.

Trumps going to need the gung-ho types like you if he's going to win but he will also need moderates. We will see if he can get them, right now, not so much.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

I believe he can. And will. And I think it will be a landslide victory...

Trump won't even be the nominee.

 

[wihosa]

I believe he can. And will. And I think it will be a landslide victory...

Trump won't even be the nominee.

I used to think that too, but now I'm trying to see how he can be stopped.

 

[Indeependent]

Trump has Democrats (not Liberals) through Just Left of Conservative).
In others words, if you don't love Hillary because she's...uh, Hillary, and you don't live off of your over-inflated Portfolio, you're voting for Trump.

 

[william the wie]

Trump will get the nomination. The real question is what is the size of Chinese foreign aid loans? They weren't run through the BIS because they were set up as sweetheart deals. Payment could be in:

the dollar pegged Yuan

or in commodities at the dollar denominated international price.

This sweetheart deal blew up when commodities began their crash last year.

While the Yuan is overpriced devaluation means writing down loan revenues and more often than not from countries with higher GDP per capita than China has. Not devaluating means either arson will run wild to finance out of bad debts or stimulating even bigger bubbles that are the usual causes of revolution in China as with the Nationalist hyper inflation that made the communist revolution possible.

 

[nat4900]

While he has maintained a substantial lead now for months he has never cracked 30% in the polls, at least that I've seen. Meanwhile, Hillary is over 50% in many polls. If Hillary gets the nomination most Bernie supporters like me will happily vote for Hillary over any GOP candidate, few will stay home. With the vote so spread out in the Republican Party I'm not so sure that establishment types and evangelicals will find Trump palatable and may loose enthusiasm and stay home.

.....and, if I may, let me add a few other factors into the hodgepodge of this primary and next year's election....

First, Trump is much more "liberal" than he is that strange definition use by right wingers, "a true conservative".

Second, Trump has actually benefited by the unprecedented large number of candidates, and even with a few gone, the number is still substantial.

Third, there is a considerable number of senate seats that will have to be defended by the RNC......and I have no doubt, that democrats will go all out to bring out the vote next November which will greatly help Hillary.

Fourth, another incentive to get the vote out, is the very likely scenario that the next president will be nominating 2-4 court Justices....

Finally, this primary has shown that Hispanics and Latinos will certainly show up at the voting booths since they are really pissed at republicans.

 

[blackhawk]

Is it possible yes do I think it's probable no.

 

[FJO]

Of course he can win, and will. Stop and think... NO ONE, I repeat, NO ONE, has ever had such a huge lead and maintained it like he has for this long, which means it isn't going to fade. The people that are supporting him aren't likely to change their mind. He tapped into them early on the issues they feel are important, and that isn't going to change, so yes, he can win and most likely will.

The only other two that even have a remote chance are Cruz and Carson, and as far as I'm concerned with Trump, Cruz and Carson, its a WIN, WIN, WIN for conservatives.

Your argument gives good reason that he will win the GOP nomination. And if he does, the GOP is screwed. They will lose the WH and the Senate, overwhelmingly. But if thinking this egomaniac, slightly deranged, individual can win in the General helps you sleep at night, go for it!

GO DONALD!​

An egomaniac and grossly deranged and inexperienced individual won in 2008 and then the glory went to his head and he got far worse and won again in 2012.

Based on past history, Trump's chances of winning the presidency are pretty good.

 

[wihosa]

While he has maintained a substantial lead now for months he has never cracked 30% in the polls, at least that I've seen. Meanwhile, Hillary is over 50% in many polls. If Hillary gets the nomination most Bernie supporters like me will happily vote for Hillary over any GOP candidate, few will stay home. With the vote so spread out in the Republican Party I'm not so sure that establishment types and evangelicals will find Trump palatable and may loose enthusiasm and stay home.

.....and, if I may, let me add a few other factors into the hodgepodge of this primary and next year's election....

First, Trump is much more "liberal" than he is that strange definition use by right wingers, "a true conservative".

Second, Trump has actually benefited by the unprecedented large number of candidates, and even with a few gone, the number is still substantial.

Third, there is a considerable number of senate seats that will have to be defended by the RNC......and I have no doubt, that democrats will go all out to bring out the vote next November which will greatly help Hillary.

Fourth, another incentive to get the vote out, is the very likely scenario that the next president will be nominating 2-4 court Justices....

Finally, this primary has shown that Hispanics and Latinos will certainly show up at the voting booths since they are really pissed at republicans.

Right , the Hispanic vote will be the largest ever, Hillary will probably get 90% of it.

I think another factor is that this will be another history making election with the chance for a woman president. I'm sure that won't sway Repubs but independent women will be where Black voters were in 2008 with a chance to have "one of their own" elected. Should really drive the turnout.

 

[candycorn]

You asked a serious question.

The real question is (should be) can he win the GOP nomination. The GOP is dominated by conservatives. Trump is not a conservative. McCain was probably more moderate than the GOP rank and file. Romney was probably more moderate as well.
One of the choruses that we heard after the 2008 and 2012 elections was the angst of the GOP that they didn't nominate a "real" conservative. They seem poised to not only nominate a "real" conservative but to nominate someone who publicly supported the Clintons time and again. It truly boggles the mind.

Anyway, polling suggests that he is going to win. I think the polling is soft because of the difference between likely voters vs. registered voters. Also, I think you'll see the establishment GOP rally around whomever does well in the early contests and give him money and support. It's looking like Rubio.

If Trump wins the GOP nomination; all general elections are a coin flip. It's a binary system and a gaffe by your opponent is much more valuable than a white paper by your own side. We all know Clinton can gaffe almost like nobody else at times.

So the answer is Yes. He can. I give him about 1 in 5 of getting the GOP nomination and a 50/50 of the General if he is the GOP nominee.

Very thoughtful. It would be interesting if the establishment went with Rubio because he would be open to the same charge that the GOP leveled against Obama, that being that a one term Senator with very little foreign policy experience is not ready to assume the presidency.

Very True. With Jeb! faltering, Walker out, Kasich unable to gain any traction, and Christie facing unfavorable electoral math, Rubio is sort of the default establishment candidate.

I still think his chances are better in the primary because I just don't see how the est. can stop him. If they openly campaign against him it's likely to make him stronger, and ignoring hasn't worked.

The voters will let Donald know. Fluff doesn't usually do well in Iowa and New Hampshire. I have a feeling that he will come up with a disappointing showing in one or both states. South Carolina will likely be kinder to Trump.

You're right about the Hillary and gaffs but Trump has said things he can get away with in the primary race that would definitely be gaffs in the general.

50/50 is probably fair

 

[JimH52]

Of course he can win, and will. Stop and think... NO ONE, I repeat, NO ONE, has ever had such a huge lead and maintained it like he has for this long, which means it isn't going to fade. The people that are supporting him aren't likely to change their mind. He tapped into them early on the issues they feel are important, and that isn't going to change, so yes, he can win and most likely will.

The only other two that even have a remote chance are Cruz and Carson, and as far as I'm concerned with Trump, Cruz and Carson, its a WIN, WIN, WIN for conservatives.

While he has maintained a substantial lead now for months he has never cracked 30% in the polls, at least that I've seen. Meanwhile, Hillary is over 50% in many polls. If Hillary gets the nomination most Bernie supporters like me will happily vote for Hillary over any GOP candidate, few will stay home. With the vote so spread out in the Republican Party I'm not so sure that establishment types and evangelicals will find Trump palatable and may loose enthusiasm and stay home.

Trump has more support than any republican has had in an election in DECADES, and that includes by some DEMOCRATS, some of which I know personally, that have voted democrat all their life, but they don't like ANY of the dem candidates, ESPECIALLY Hitlery, and Hitlery does NOT have the support of the young left voter. So your optimism is a little cockeyed. Understandable though, I know it's going to be hard for you progs to see your power stripped away, but, that's the way it goes. You'll all have to find a way to deal with it.

Even though many Republicans have said they would never vote for him. GO DONALD!

 

[mudwhistle]

I am asking about the primary and the general, what do you think?

Crickets......they will say he can, but inwardly know he can't.

One of the reasons he has such strong support is because we know he can win. In a straight up election he'd clobber any Democrap.

The only reservation we have is since Obama was such a sucky president and still won.....is the election rigged?

I suspect Hillary isn't going to campaign seriously. I don't think she can stand the exposure. She just wants to appear on Nightline or 60 Minutes every week and that will get her the nomination. Then she's say her Republican opponent is picking on her.....give us a sob story about how she's being mistreated because she's a woman.....and you should vote for her......send her money n' stuff.

The media will do their part.....telling everyone what a trooper she is for putting up with all of the abuse from men. Let's all have a pity-party for Hillary!!

She'll find it hard to pull anyone in at her events.

She can't get away with that shit with leaders from other countries. She can only pull it here in her media stronghold.

 

[wihosa]

You asked a serious question.

The real question is (should be) can he win the GOP nomination. The GOP is dominated by conservatives. Trump is not a conservative. McCain was probably more moderate than the GOP rank and file. Romney was probably more moderate as well.
One of the choruses that we heard after the 2008 and 2012 elections was the angst of the GOP that they didn't nominate a "real" conservative. They seem poised to not only nominate a "real" conservative but to nominate someone who publicly supported the Clintons time and again. It truly boggles the mind.

Anyway, polling suggests that he is going to win. I think the polling is soft because of the difference between likely voters vs. registered voters. Also, I think you'll see the establishment GOP rally around whomever does well in the early contests and give him money and support. It's looking like Rubio.

If Trump wins the GOP nomination; all general elections are a coin flip. It's a binary system and a gaffe by your opponent is much more valuable than a white paper by your own side. We all know Clinton can gaffe almost like nobody else at times.

So the answer is Yes. He can. I give him about 1 in 5 of getting the GOP nomination and a 50/50 of the General if he is the GOP nominee.

Very thoughtful. It would be interesting if the establishment went with Rubio because he would be open to the same charge that the GOP leveled against Obama, that being that a one term Senator with very little foreign policy experience is not ready to assume the presidency.

Very True. With Jeb! faltering, Walker out, Kasich unable to gain any traction, and Christie facing unfavorable electoral math, Rubio is sort of the default establishment candidate.

I still think his chances are better in the primary because I just don't see how the est. can stop him. If they openly campaign against him it's likely to make him stronger, and ignoring hasn't worked.

The voters will let Donald know. Fluff doesn't usually do well in Iowa and New Hampshire. I have a feeling that he will come up with a disappointing showing in one or both states. South Carolina will likely be kinder to Trump.

You're right about the Hillary and gaffs but Trump has said things he can get away with in the primary race that would definitely be gaffs in the general.

50/50 is probably fair

On the plus side for Rubio, it would probably put a big part of the Hispanic vote in play, but on the negative side he might not hold up under the bright lights when it comes to his message of being new. HE is new but he has embraced all the failed economic policies of the GOP, tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, austerity for everyone else...old message.

 

[wihosa]

I am asking about the primary and the general, what do you think?

Crickets......they will say he can, but inwardly know he can't.

One of the reasons he has such strong support is because we know he can win. In a straight up election he'd clobber any Democrap.

The only reservation we have is since Obama was such a sucky president and still won.....is the election rigged?

I suspect Hillary isn't going to campaign seriously. I don't think she can stand the exposure. She just wants to appear on Nightline or 60 Minutes every week and that will get her the nomination. Then she's say her Republican opponent is picking on her.....give us a sob story about how she's being mistreated because she's a woman.....and you should vote for her......send her money n' stuff.

The media will do their part.....telling everyone what a trooper she is for putting up with all of the abuse from men. Let's all have a pity-party for Hillary!!

She'll find it hard to pull anyone in at her events.

She can't get away with that shit with leaders from other countries. She can only pull it here in her media stronghold.

Yep, she'll start crying just like at the Benghazi inquisition, oh, that's right, she didn't. In fact she kicked a whole team of prosecutors asses!

You should take off your hate colored glasses.

 

[nat4900]

The only reservation we have is since Obama was such a sucky president and still won.....is the election rigged?

How did right wingers win last year? Was the election rigged??? LOL

(what a dimwit you must be.......BUT, please back Trump)

 

[Lumpy 1]

I'm thinking the country is pretty fed up with the constant ultra left wing failures both foreign and domestic of the past 7 years represented by Obama, Hillary and the rest of the left wing, "F" over the middle-class (but lie about it) types.

Trump can win because he obviously loves the country and most important to me he seems quite dedicated to getting responsible Americans back to work and government out of the f'ing way of successful American lives.

 

[JimH52]

Trump loves himself.....