Official USMB Mafia Game #6: The Rebels In The Palace

[Grandma]

unvote AYE

VOTE: Mertex

If we have to revisit Aye again because this is wrong, than by all means we will. But this is already the second time I've voted her and she seems town.

You're defending her because she's the Ruler and you're the Guard.

So both FA and Shaitra call Aye Town, which makes her Suspect #1. Aye goes into wall posting, unusual for her, to make a case for Scarlet as Usurper, which is deflection as Usuper =/= Ruler, which again makes her look very suspicious for being so over-the-top.

And Josh unvotes Aye saying Aye looks Townish.

Aye + Josh are the Ruling Party team.

We can deal with the Usurper after these 2 are gone.

Do you (Wolf) remember the last Game where Avi called his partner "she?" He was trying to throw us off. FA would do the exact same thing. Is the Ruler a King? Is the Ruler a Queen? We don't know. But I'm 100% sure that the King/Queen is Josh/Aye, and Aye is the stronger suspect right now.

You are so good at WIFOM. but you're wrong. Are you the third guard?

No, you are.

The post where you think FA is town.

... Mertex you're doing a good job of doubtcasting. Grandma seems to be a little better at it.

I have absolutely no doubt at all.

Unfortunately the rest of Town has zero attention span and refuses to look at the overwhelmingly obvious clues that FA and Shaitra handed us on a silver platter.

Towards that end, @Wkae, I'm prescribing a big bowl of Adderal for all the other Townies here. While you're spoon-feeding it to them, tell them (gently) to vote for Aye. Remind them that I offered myself up for the next lynch if I'm wrong.

 

[Grandma]

The final quote/reply posted wrong, it should look like this:

Josh_B said: ↑
... Mertex you're doing a good job of doubtcasting. Grandma seems to be a little better at it.

I have absolutely no doubt at all.

Unfortunately the rest of Town has zero attention span and refuses to look at the overwhelmingly obvious clues that FA and Shaitra handed us on a silver platter.

Towards that end, @Wkae, I'm prescribing a big bowl of Adderal for all the other Townies here. While you're spoon-feeding it to them, tell them (gently) to vote for Aye. Remind them that I offered myself up for the next lynch if I'm wrong.

 

[Grandma]

Wake, I mean.

 

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: Day 5 Who Voted Who

Format: Person voting - Person voted for (Vote Count they voted for them)

Arden -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

Avatar4321 - ScarletRage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage(2), ScarletRage(1)

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

Grandma - Aye(4), Aye(3), Aye(2), Aye(1)

ika -- Aye(4), Aye(3),Aye(2), ScarletRage(1)

Josh_B -- Mertex(4), Mertex(3),Mertex(2), Mertex(1)

MathBlade -- Scarlet Rage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage (2), Scarlet Rage(1)

Mertex -- Avatar4321(4), Avatar4321(3), Scarlet Rage(2), Not Voting(1)

Scarlet Rage -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

WolfSister77 -- ika(4), Avatar4321(3), MathBlade(2), Not Voting(1)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I haven't finished the analysis but an introductory glance looks like one of the following people is likely scum. I am posting this before I get done so you can see my thought process in how I do a VCA. You can take it or leave it as you like. This is not in order of likelihood, this is stream of consciousness posting. Likelihood sorting in a bit.

1) Wolf Sister -- Lack of Consistency of votes however seems active so need to see if good reason for switching. If no reason found, then likely lynch shopping to try to get the lynch.
2) Ika -- Switching between the two post popular votes maybe lynch shopping between the two and neither is scum. If Ika is scum, then someone other than Avatar and SR is likely ika's partner in scummery.
3) CafeAuLait -- Vote on ika seems weird. If ika is town then probably Cafe/SR or Cafe/Aye scum team in that order.
4) Lots of vote parking -- While discussion is happening upon looking at the VCA there is a lot of vote parking meaning there could be one scum vote parking the other looking for a lynch.

*More thoughts after I review, wolf, ika, cafe, SR's, and Aye's posts*
The first three because of voting pattern the last two because they are major lynch targets for most of the day.

 

[CaféAuLait]

The final quote/reply posted wrong, it should look like this:

Josh_B said: ↑
... Mertex you're doing a good job of doubtcasting. Grandma seems to be a little better at it.

I have absolutely no doubt at all.

Unfortunately the rest of Town has zero attention span and refuses to look at the overwhelmingly obvious clues that FA and Shaitra handed us on a silver platter.

Towards that end, @Wkae, I'm prescribing a big bowl of Adderal for all the other Townies here. While you're spoon-feeding it to them, tell them (gently) to vote for Aye. Remind them that I offered myself up for the next lynch if I'm wrong.

You of all people know Wake can't tell us anything. Why are you even addressing the mod in that fashion? Makes no sense to me.

Both FA and Shai refused to vote IKA as well. As I pointed out earlier they both read Math as null...

 

[CaféAuLait]

Spoiler: Day 5 Who Voted Who

Format: Person voting - Person voted for (Vote Count they voted for them)

Arden -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

Avatar4321 - ScarletRage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage(2), ScarletRage(1)

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

Grandma - Aye(4), Aye(3), Aye(2), Aye(1)

ika -- Aye(4), Aye(3),Aye(2), ScarletRage(1)

Josh_B -- Mertex(4), Mertex(3),Mertex(2), Mertex(1)

MathBlade -- Scarlet Rage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage (2), Scarlet Rage(1)

Mertex -- Avatar4321(4), Avatar4321(3), Scarlet Rage(2), Not Voting(1)

Scarlet Rage -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

WolfSister77 -- ika(4), Avatar4321(3), MathBlade(2), Not Voting(1)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I haven't finished the analysis but an introductory glance looks like one of the following people is likely scum. I am posting this before I get done so you can see my thought process in how I do a VCA. You can take it or leave it as you like. This is not in order of likelihood, this is stream of consciousness posting. Likelihood sorting in a bit.

1) Wolf Sister -- Lack of Consistency of votes however seems active so need to see if good reason for switching. If no reason found, then likely lynch shopping to try to get the lynch.
2) Ika -- Switching between the two post popular votes maybe lynch shopping between the two and neither is scum. If Ika is scum, then someone other than Avatar and SR is likely ika's partner in scummery.
3) CafeAuLait -- Vote on ika seems weird. If ika is town then probably Cafe/SR or Cafe/Aye scum team in that order.
4) Lots of vote parking -- While discussion is happening upon looking at the VCA there is a lot of vote parking meaning there could be one scum vote parking the other looking for a lynch.

*More thoughts after I review, wolf, ika, cafe, SR's, and Aye's posts*
The first three because of voting pattern the last two because they are major lynch targets for most of the day.

Are you saying this is my voting:

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

You need to check, cause that is totally wrong.

I started the wagon on FA and my vote stayed there and this is the FIRST time I've voted for IKA and I have voted for you. Please go back and check your results. TIA.

 

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: Day 5 Who Voted Who

Format: Person voting - Person voted for (Vote Count they voted for them)

Arden -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

Avatar4321 - ScarletRage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage(2), ScarletRage(1)

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

Grandma - Aye(4), Aye(3), Aye(2), Aye(1)

ika -- Aye(4), Aye(3),Aye(2), ScarletRage(1)

Josh_B -- Mertex(4), Mertex(3),Mertex(2), Mertex(1)

MathBlade -- Scarlet Rage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage (2), Scarlet Rage(1)

Mertex -- Avatar4321(4), Avatar4321(3), Scarlet Rage(2), Not Voting(1)

Scarlet Rage -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

WolfSister77 -- ika(4), Avatar4321(3), MathBlade(2), Not Voting(1)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I haven't finished the analysis but an introductory glance looks like one of the following people is likely scum. I am posting this before I get done so you can see my thought process in how I do a VCA. You can take it or leave it as you like. This is not in order of likelihood, this is stream of consciousness posting. Likelihood sorting in a bit.

1) Wolf Sister -- Lack of Consistency of votes however seems active so need to see if good reason for switching. If no reason found, then likely lynch shopping to try to get the lynch.
2) Ika -- Switching between the two post popular votes maybe lynch shopping between the two and neither is scum. If Ika is scum, then someone other than Avatar and SR is likely ika's partner in scummery.
3) CafeAuLait -- Vote on ika seems weird. If ika is town then probably Cafe/SR or Cafe/Aye scum team in that order.
4) Lots of vote parking -- While discussion is happening upon looking at the VCA there is a lot of vote parking meaning there could be one scum vote parking the other looking for a lynch.

*More thoughts after I review, wolf, ika, cafe, SR's, and Aye's posts*
The first three because of voting pattern the last two because they are major lynch targets for most of the day.

Are you saying this is my voting:

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

You need to check, cause that is totally wrong.

I started the wagon on FA and my vote stayed there and this is the FIRST time I've voted for IKA and I have voted for you. Please go back and check your results. TIA.

5.1 your vote was on me.
5.2 your vote was on me.
5.3 your vote was on me.
5.4 your vote was on ika.

That is what
CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

says.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Additionally, I laid out my reason for my vote on IKA, both FA and Shai defended him and refused to vote for him stating it would give scum the upper hand to end the day soon.

 

[Avatar4321]

I don't know if scarlet is the ruler. I just think she has been scummy

Who are your other choices Avatar and why, if you are unsure?

because I have no clue who the ruler. How the heck can I be sure?

I just know who I find suspicious. Right now that is scarlet, aye, mertex, and Arden.

and today scarlet has been particularly scummy for the reasons I've already stated

 

[MathBlade]

I should have included an example sorry.

 

[MathBlade]

Additionally, I laid out my reason for my vote on IKA, both FA and Shai defended him and refused to vote for him stating it would give scum the upper hand to end the day soon.

As I said I haven't read the thread to make a judgment. The way to do a VCA is to come into it blind and then see if there is a good reason why.

If you read the thread and then try to see if it is valid you can get biased.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Spoiler: Day 5 Who Voted Who

Format: Person voting - Person voted for (Vote Count they voted for them)

Arden -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

Avatar4321 - ScarletRage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage(2), ScarletRage(1)

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

Grandma - Aye(4), Aye(3), Aye(2), Aye(1)

ika -- Aye(4), Aye(3),Aye(2), ScarletRage(1)

Josh_B -- Mertex(4), Mertex(3),Mertex(2), Mertex(1)

MathBlade -- Scarlet Rage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage (2), Scarlet Rage(1)

Mertex -- Avatar4321(4), Avatar4321(3), Scarlet Rage(2), Not Voting(1)

Scarlet Rage -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

WolfSister77 -- ika(4), Avatar4321(3), MathBlade(2), Not Voting(1)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I haven't finished the analysis but an introductory glance looks like one of the following people is likely scum. I am posting this before I get done so you can see my thought process in how I do a VCA. You can take it or leave it as you like. This is not in order of likelihood, this is stream of consciousness posting. Likelihood sorting in a bit.

1) Wolf Sister -- Lack of Consistency of votes however seems active so need to see if good reason for switching. If no reason found, then likely lynch shopping to try to get the lynch.
2) Ika -- Switching between the two post popular votes maybe lynch shopping between the two and neither is scum. If Ika is scum, then someone other than Avatar and SR is likely ika's partner in scummery.
3) CafeAuLait -- Vote on ika seems weird. If ika is town then probably Cafe/SR or Cafe/Aye scum team in that order.
4) Lots of vote parking -- While discussion is happening upon looking at the VCA there is a lot of vote parking meaning there could be one scum vote parking the other looking for a lynch.

*More thoughts after I review, wolf, ika, cafe, SR's, and Aye's posts*
The first three because of voting pattern the last two because they are major lynch targets for most of the day.

Are you saying this is my voting:

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

You need to check, cause that is totally wrong.

I started the wagon on FA and my vote stayed there and this is the FIRST time I've voted for IKA and I have voted for you. Please go back and check your results. TIA.

5.1 your vote was on me.
5.2 your vote was on me.
5.3 your vote was on me.
5.4 your vote was on ika.

That is what
CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

says.

Okay, I see what you did there, I thought you were tallying each vote I made so far through the game. So my vote leaving you and jumping to IKA after I spent time to see who scum defended was weird in your opinion?

 

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: Day 5 Who Voted Who

Format: Person voting - Person voted for (Vote Count they voted for them)

Arden -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

Avatar4321 - ScarletRage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage(2), ScarletRage(1)

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

Grandma - Aye(4), Aye(3), Aye(2), Aye(1)

ika -- Aye(4), Aye(3),Aye(2), ScarletRage(1)

Josh_B -- Mertex(4), Mertex(3),Mertex(2), Mertex(1)

MathBlade -- Scarlet Rage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage (2), Scarlet Rage(1)

Mertex -- Avatar4321(4), Avatar4321(3), Scarlet Rage(2), Not Voting(1)

Scarlet Rage -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

WolfSister77 -- ika(4), Avatar4321(3), MathBlade(2), Not Voting(1)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I haven't finished the analysis but an introductory glance looks like one of the following people is likely scum. I am posting this before I get done so you can see my thought process in how I do a VCA. You can take it or leave it as you like. This is not in order of likelihood, this is stream of consciousness posting. Likelihood sorting in a bit.

1) Wolf Sister -- Lack of Consistency of votes however seems active so need to see if good reason for switching. If no reason found, then likely lynch shopping to try to get the lynch.
2) Ika -- Switching between the two post popular votes maybe lynch shopping between the two and neither is scum. If Ika is scum, then someone other than Avatar and SR is likely ika's partner in scummery.
3) CafeAuLait -- Vote on ika seems weird. If ika is town then probably Cafe/SR or Cafe/Aye scum team in that order.
4) Lots of vote parking -- While discussion is happening upon looking at the VCA there is a lot of vote parking meaning there could be one scum vote parking the other looking for a lynch.

*More thoughts after I review, wolf, ika, cafe, SR's, and Aye's posts*
The first three because of voting pattern the last two because they are major lynch targets for most of the day.

Are you saying this is my voting:

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

You need to check, cause that is totally wrong.

I started the wagon on FA and my vote stayed there and this is the FIRST time I've voted for IKA and I have voted for you. Please go back and check your results. TIA.

5.1 your vote was on me.
5.2 your vote was on me.
5.3 your vote was on me.
5.4 your vote was on ika.

That is what
CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

says.

Okay, I see what you did there, I thought you were tallying each vote I made so far through the game. So my vote leaving you and jumping to IKA after I spent time to see who scum defended was weird in your opinion?

It is not "weird". The research you do for a VCA is independent of judgment. It is to note something worth looking into to see if the person is town or scum. So "noteworthy" would be better.

I am planning on doing it for prior days too just it is taking longer than I thought and I want to be contributing since it is closer to deadline and I want to try to contribute.

 

[Wolfsister77]

Cafe-I also find it strange that she'd pick who is scum based only on one days posts and vote counts. That makes zero sense. And it makes zero sense to say I was lynch shopping when I never once voted for the largest wagons because I thought they were on town.

But let's just wait and see what she comes up with.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Additionally, I laid out my reason for my vote on IKA, both FA and Shai defended him and refused to vote for him stating it would give scum the upper hand to end the day soon.

As I said I haven't read the thread to make a judgment. The way to do a VCA is to come into it blind and then see if there is a good reason why.

If you read the thread and then try to see if it is valid you can get biased.

If you have a moment take a look at the IKA issue, I am not looking at a VCA per se, I was looking for a pattern where we had known scum defending/soft defending a player, and that player was IKA given what went on with his vote. Being new, I don't think coming in blind or whatever you mean might help me here. I can look at regular games and seem to get info but given the scum don't know who each other are and only know their ruler, that is why I looked at it in that manner.

 

[MathBlade]

Cafe-I also find it strange that she'd pick who is scum based only on one days posts and vote counts. That makes zero sense. And it makes zero sense to say I was lynch shopping when I never once voted for the largest wagons because I thought they were on town.

But let's just wait and see what she comes up with.

Thank you. Again -- I need to read the thread and catch up on what I have missed. It's just something note worthy. I am not picking scum based on one day's vote pattern. I am not saying you are. I'm looking for WHY you did that. If you did then very likely conf! town. I just have to see why. Either you are obv town or obv scum.

 

[Avatar4321]

I should add that I agree with the arguments about ika. He hasn't left my radar simply because I'm exploring a number of options.

as for town reads - math, grandma, wolf, cafe, josh

 

[MathBlade]

Additionally, I laid out my reason for my vote on IKA, both FA and Shai defended him and refused to vote for him stating it would give scum the upper hand to end the day soon.

As I said I haven't read the thread to make a judgment. The way to do a VCA is to come into it blind and then see if there is a good reason why.

If you read the thread and then try to see if it is valid you can get biased.

If you have a moment take a look at the IKA issue, I am not looking at a VCA per se, I was looking for a pattern where we had known scum defending/soft defending a player, and that player was IKA given what went on with his vote. Being new, I don't think coming in blind or whatever you mean might help me here. I can look at regular games and seem to get info but given the scum don't know who each other are and only know their ruler, that is why I looked at it in that manner.

And that's why I'd be going through the list looking for explanatory posts like those. The more you explain the more likely town you are.
Coming in blind -- Means to just take information as it is without judgment. E.G. if you do a post by post analysis(PBPA) of a player and believe they are scum before you do it you will see scummy things. Coming in blind means you don't let your belief a player is scum influence your PBPA or VCA.

The noteworthy players would be easier to quickly tell if town or scum. They are being more transparent. Just please let me read.

 

[ika]

3 more votes till i can selfhammer plz

 

[CaféAuLait]

Spoiler: Day 5 Who Voted Who

Format: Person voting - Person voted for (Vote Count they voted for them)

Arden -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

Avatar4321 - ScarletRage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage(2), ScarletRage(1)

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

Grandma - Aye(4), Aye(3), Aye(2), Aye(1)

ika -- Aye(4), Aye(3),Aye(2), ScarletRage(1)

Josh_B -- Mertex(4), Mertex(3),Mertex(2), Mertex(1)

MathBlade -- Scarlet Rage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage (2), Scarlet Rage(1)

Mertex -- Avatar4321(4), Avatar4321(3), Scarlet Rage(2), Not Voting(1)

Scarlet Rage -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

WolfSister77 -- ika(4), Avatar4321(3), MathBlade(2), Not Voting(1)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I haven't finished the analysis but an introductory glance looks like one of the following people is likely scum. I am posting this before I get done so you can see my thought process in how I do a VCA. You can take it or leave it as you like. This is not in order of likelihood, this is stream of consciousness posting. Likelihood sorting in a bit.

1) Wolf Sister -- Lack of Consistency of votes however seems active so need to see if good reason for switching. If no reason found, then likely lynch shopping to try to get the lynch.
2) Ika -- Switching between the two post popular votes maybe lynch shopping between the two and neither is scum. If Ika is scum, then someone other than Avatar and SR is likely ika's partner in scummery.
3) CafeAuLait -- Vote on ika seems weird. If ika is town then probably Cafe/SR or Cafe/Aye scum team in that order.
4) Lots of vote parking -- While discussion is happening upon looking at the VCA there is a lot of vote parking meaning there could be one scum vote parking the other looking for a lynch.

*More thoughts after I review, wolf, ika, cafe, SR's, and Aye's posts*
The first three because of voting pattern the last two because they are major lynch targets for most of the day.

Are you saying this is my voting:

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

You need to check, cause that is totally wrong.

I started the wagon on FA and my vote stayed there and this is the FIRST time I've voted for IKA and I have voted for you. Please go back and check your results. TIA.

5.1 your vote was on me.
5.2 your vote was on me.
5.3 your vote was on me.
5.4 your vote was on ika.

That is what
CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

says.

Okay, I see what you did there, I thought you were tallying each vote I made so far through the game. So my vote leaving you and jumping to IKA after I spent time to see who scum defended was weird in your opinion?

It is not "weird". The research you do for a VCA is independent of judgment. It is to note something worth looking into to see if the person is town or scum. So "noteworthy" would be better.

I am planning on doing it for prior days too just it is taking longer than I thought and I want to be contributing since it is closer to deadline and I want to try to contribute.

( emphasis added)

Getting a little "TNish" there Math... If you could explain why you come to these conclusions and how, given VCA's seem to be soooooo different this game I would appreciate it. I have been having a very difficult time trying to read anything. Each time one goes back you have to account for usurper, and guards now knowing they are voting fellow guards. I would venture VCA will be terribly hard this game, so any help you can offer would be great.