Official USMB Mafia Game #6: The Rebels In The Palace

[CaféAuLait]

3 more votes till i can selfhammer plz

I also think it's weird the way you pop in and know what is going on but hardly contribute- (unless you are arguing games, past games, and other dynamics with SR. Even though earlier in the game you said you were ready to play since you got your hammer.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Well. It is WALKING DEAD time where I am... and I am off! See you all later tonight, maybe..

 

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: Day 5 Who Voted Who

Format: Person voting - Person voted for (Vote Count they voted for them)

Arden -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

Avatar4321 - ScarletRage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage(2), ScarletRage(1)

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

Grandma - Aye(4), Aye(3), Aye(2), Aye(1)

ika -- Aye(4), Aye(3),Aye(2), ScarletRage(1)

Josh_B -- Mertex(4), Mertex(3),Mertex(2), Mertex(1)

MathBlade -- Scarlet Rage(4), Scarlet Rage(3), Scarlet Rage (2), Scarlet Rage(1)

Mertex -- Avatar4321(4), Avatar4321(3), Scarlet Rage(2), Not Voting(1)

Scarlet Rage -- AyeCantSeeYou(4), AyeCantSeeYou(3), AyeCantSeeYou(2), AyeCantSeeYou(1)

WolfSister77 -- ika(4), Avatar4321(3), MathBlade(2), Not Voting(1)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I haven't finished the analysis but an introductory glance looks like one of the following people is likely scum. I am posting this before I get done so you can see my thought process in how I do a VCA. You can take it or leave it as you like. This is not in order of likelihood, this is stream of consciousness posting. Likelihood sorting in a bit.

1) Wolf Sister -- Lack of Consistency of votes however seems active so need to see if good reason for switching. If no reason found, then likely lynch shopping to try to get the lynch.
2) Ika -- Switching between the two post popular votes maybe lynch shopping between the two and neither is scum. If Ika is scum, then someone other than Avatar and SR is likely ika's partner in scummery.
3) CafeAuLait -- Vote on ika seems weird. If ika is town then probably Cafe/SR or Cafe/Aye scum team in that order.
4) Lots of vote parking -- While discussion is happening upon looking at the VCA there is a lot of vote parking meaning there could be one scum vote parking the other looking for a lynch.

*More thoughts after I review, wolf, ika, cafe, SR's, and Aye's posts*
The first three because of voting pattern the last two because they are major lynch targets for most of the day.

Are you saying this is my voting:

CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

You need to check, cause that is totally wrong.

I started the wagon on FA and my vote stayed there and this is the FIRST time I've voted for IKA and I have voted for you. Please go back and check your results. TIA.

5.1 your vote was on me.
5.2 your vote was on me.
5.3 your vote was on me.
5.4 your vote was on ika.

That is what
CafeAuLait -ika(4), MathBlade(3), MathBlade(2), MathBlade(1)

says.

Okay, I see what you did there, I thought you were tallying each vote I made so far through the game. So my vote leaving you and jumping to IKA after I spent time to see who scum defended was weird in your opinion?

It is not "weird". The research you do for a VCA is independent of judgment. It is to note something worth looking into to see if the person is town or scum. So "noteworthy" would be better.

I am planning on doing it for prior days too just it is taking longer than I thought and I want to be contributing since it is closer to deadline and I want to try to contribute.

( emphasis added)

Getting a little "TNish" there Math... If you could explain why you come to these conclusions and how, given VCA's seem to be soooooo different this game I would appreciate it. I have been having a very difficult time trying to read anything. Each time one goes back you have to account for usurper, and guards now knowing they are voting fellow guards. I would venture VCA will be terribly hard this game, so any help you can offer would be great.

I don't know what "TNish" means.

VCA is different for every player. VCA is a fancy way of saying "I'm looking at the prior votes to find scum." However, there are two generally accepted styles.
1) Take lynch of known scum. Figure out who was and wasn't on it. Repeat for future lynches of scum and narrow down potential scum.
2) Look at a players voting pattern and see who they voted for and why.

Mostly everyone has been doing 1. I'm doing 2 as a teaching moment since it is how I usually look at things when I replace into games. This method usually helps me be more efficient and explain why. Just consider it another tool to catch scum.

 

[MathBlade]

Thanks to Cafe and Wolf who immediately responded to my VCA of day 5.
Their responses helped me to find the posts that were townie and explained their actions.

Since Cafe is likely town, therefore SR is as the vote pattern doesn't lend itself to other allies.
Since Wolf is likely town, this would mean ika is the most likely scum out of the notable vote patterns.

Vote ika

 

[Wake]

Vote Count 5.5​

★Arden (0):
Avatar4321 (1): Mertex
AyeCantSeeYou (4): Grandma,★Arden, ScarletRage, ika
CafeAuLait (0):
Grandma (0):
ika (3): CafeAuLait, Wolfsister77, Mathblade
Josh_B (0):
Mathblade (0):
Mertex (1): Josh_B
ScarletRage (2): AyeCantSeeYou, Avatar4321
Wolfsister77 (0):

Not Voting (0):


~ With 11 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch!
~ Deadline is 10/16/14, @9PM Central.

1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5
RosieS's Lynch & Flip
2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6
House's Lynch & Flip
3.1 | 3.2
FA_Q2's Lynch & Flip
4.1
Shaitra's Lynch & Flip
5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.5​

 

[Wolfsister77]

Wake

Mathblade voted for ika, look at post above vc

And cool image.

 

[MathBlade]

LOL Wake Trying to make things rougher for me I see by spamming VCs... Just kidding

I was advised that frequent VCs are healthy for the games. Doing this for all my games now. Can't wait for the Supernatural, Resident Evil 4, and Jurassic Park games to begin. -Wake

 

[Josh_B]

I'm still happy here.
Grandma, are you sure you're town?

 

[Grandma]

The final quote/reply posted wrong, it should look like this:

Josh_B said: ↑
... Mertex you're doing a good job of doubtcasting. Grandma seems to be a little better at it.

I have absolutely no doubt at all.

Unfortunately the rest of Town has zero attention span and refuses to look at the overwhelmingly obvious clues that FA and Shaitra handed us on a silver platter.

Towards that end, @Wkae, I'm prescribing a big bowl of Adderal for all the other Townies here. While you're spoon-feeding it to them, tell them (gently) to vote for Aye. Remind them that I offered myself up for the next lynch if I'm wrong.

You of all people know Wake can't tell us anything. Why are you even addressing the mod in that fashion? Makes no sense to me.

Both FA and Shai refused to vote IKA as well. As I pointed out earlier they both read Math as null...

I mentioned Wake to indicate my frustration at everyone's refusal to look at the clues.

Shaitra only voted for Rosie and Avatar, FA was mainly parked on Wolf but also voted for TSO (me) and Avi.

From Wall Post 1766: FA defends Josh and calls Math Scum. He's very much after Wolf. He reads me (tso) and Scarlet as Scum. Defends Avi. Wants to PL Ika.

 

[Wolfsister77]

Yeah Grandma, FA mentioned Ika not playing but never voted for him and said scum were on his wagon. That was a huge clue to me plus all the strong Arden defense of him from the beginning of the game. I put my case in one post as did Cafe and math. I no longer consider it a PL. His wagon broke apart for a reason at the beginning of the game and FA helped that with his scum on the wagon comments.

 

[Grandma]

I'm still happy here.
Grandma, are you sure you're town?

Yes. And I'm sure you're not.

 

[ika]

3 more votes till i can selfhammer plz

I also think it's weird the way you pop in and know what is going on but hardly contribute- (unless you are arguing games, past games, and other dynamics with SR. Even though earlier in the game you said you were ready to play since you got your hammer.

i only glanced through game and saw recent vote counts. if you haev somethign to ask direct it at me

 

[Grandma]

Yeah Grandma, FA mentioned Ika not playing but never voted for him and said scum were on his wagon. That was a huge clue to me plus all the strong Arden defense of him from the beginning of the game. I put my case in one post as did Cafe and math. I no longer consider it a PL. His wagon broke apart for a reason at the beginning of the game and FA helped that with his scum on the wagon comments.

He may have not voted for Ika, but calling for a PL in the first place isn't exactly protecting someone, is it?

 

[Wolfsister77]

Yeah Grandma, FA mentioned Ika not playing but never voted for him and said scum were on his wagon. That was a huge clue to me plus all the strong Arden defense of him from the beginning of the game. I put my case in one post as did Cafe and math. I no longer consider it a PL. His wagon broke apart for a reason at the beginning of the game and FA helped that with his scum on the wagon comments.

He may have not voted for Ika, but calling for a PL in the first place isn't exactly protecting someone, is it?

Saying there is scum on his wagon and not voting him and the wagon fell apart after that sure does look like it but if you look at Arden's defense of him-she defends him quite strongly compared to everyone else. I pointed it out already.

Are you saying Aye is the ruler and Josh is guard now?

 

[CaféAuLait]

Yeah Grandma, FA mentioned Ika not playing but never voted for him and said scum were on his wagon. That was a huge clue to me plus all the strong Arden defense of him from the beginning of the game. I put my case in one post as did Cafe and math. I no longer consider it a PL. His wagon broke apart for a reason at the beginning of the game and FA helped that with his scum on the wagon comments.

He may have not voted for Ika, but calling for a PL in the first place isn't exactly protecting someone, is it?

Saying there is scum on his wagon and not voting him and the wagon fell apart after that sure does look like it but if you look at Arden's defense of him-she defends him quite strongly compared to everyone else. I pointed it out already.

Are you saying Aye is the ruler and Josh is guard now?

Don't forget, Shai also came in and said IKA was town as his wagon was rolling along...

 

[CaféAuLait]

3 more votes till i can selfhammer plz

I also think it's weird the way you pop in and know what is going on but hardly contribute- (unless you are arguing games, past games, and other dynamics with SR. Even though earlier in the game you said you were ready to play since you got your hammer.

i only glanced through game and saw recent vote counts. if you haev somethign to ask direct it at me

I appreciate you saying I can ask you something but this game is a participatory game, one which you said you would be participating in after you got your hammer and you really are not actively participating IMO. You are actively lurking IMO.

 

[CaféAuLait]

I don't know if scarlet is the ruler. I just think she has been scummy

Who are your other choices Avatar and why, if you are unsure?

because I have no clue who the ruler. How the heck can I be sure?

I just know who I find suspicious. Right now that is scarlet, aye, mertex, and Arden.

and today scarlet has been particularly scummy for the reasons I've already stated

I don't know why you sound so defensive here. I was just asking for other reads since you sounded iffy on SR. That's all.

 

[Grandma]

Are you saying Aye is the ruler and Josh is guard now?

That's exactly what I've been saying most of this Day.

 

[Grandma]

Wolfsister77 - Are you saying the team are Arden and Ika?

 

[CaféAuLait]

The final quote/reply posted wrong, it should look like this:

Josh_B said: ↑
... Mertex you're doing a good job of doubtcasting. Grandma seems to be a little better at it.

I have absolutely no doubt at all.

Unfortunately the rest of Town has zero attention span and refuses to look at the overwhelmingly obvious clues that FA and Shaitra handed us on a silver platter.

Towards that end, @Wkae, I'm prescribing a big bowl of Adderal for all the other Townies here. While you're spoon-feeding it to them, tell them (gently) to vote for Aye. Remind them that I offered myself up for the next lynch if I'm wrong.

You of all people know Wake can't tell us anything. Why are you even addressing the mod in that fashion? Makes no sense to me.

Both FA and Shai refused to vote IKA as well. As I pointed out earlier they both read Math as null...

I mentioned Wake to indicate my frustration at everyone's refusal to look at the clues.

Shaitra only voted for Rosie and Avatar, FA was mainly parked on Wolf but also voted for TSO (me) and Avi.

From Wall Post 1766: FA defends Josh and calls Math Scum. He's very much after Wolf. He reads me (tso) and Scarlet as Scum. Defends Avi. Wants to PL Ika.

As I have said before, I noted FA's reads, reads you once were all over- just focusing on his nulls. I also noted sometime ago, prior to you pointing to Aye, that Aye would be scum going by FA's reads list. You ignored that and continued to focus on his null reads. Then, I pointed out the overlaps on FA and Shai's nulls reads and you said I needed to look at the town reads. Now you accuse people of not being focused.