Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[Old Rocks]

Hmm, a quick check of blogs this morning shows:

Charlie Gold has Romney up 53-47.

Bill Aluminum has Romney up by 6.

Sally Copper also sees a Romney win next Tuesday.

Steve Bismuth (ever heard of him?) sees a Romney runaway as well.

The only one I can see predicting an Obama win is Joe Steel.

Really?

President Obama 290 Governor Romney 248

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

President Obama 303 Governor Romney 235

Chances of election President Obama 81% Governor Romney 19%

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Chances of election President Obama 67% Governor Romney 33%

President Obama 290 Governor Romney 248

2012 Electoral Map - The Intrade Forecast 11/2/2012

I don't think he was being serious. Check out the names in his post.

 

[JimH52]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

But please don't cancel the GOP Victory Parties. Your purchases will help create more jobs.

 

[Harry Dresden]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

But please don't cancel the GOP Victory Parties. Your purchases will help create more jobs.

well thats it then......Nate Silver called it......might as well stop the voting....

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Don't give a fuck what he thinks.

 

[blackhawk]

 

[NYcarbineer]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

But please don't cancel the GOP Victory Parties. Your purchases will help create more jobs.

well thats it then......Nate Silver called it......might as well stop the voting....

Why so grouchy?

All it means is that he is handicapping the contest in such a way that predicts that for every ten times a presidential race would be where this one is, in the polls, at this point in the race,

the guy in Obama's current position is going to win at least 8 of those times.

I'd say that's a reasonable bet.

 

[Plasmaball]

Don't give a fuck what he thinks.

Ah but if it was gallup or ras we would have 20 threads on that shit because you would care then.....

Cherry pickers.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

But please don't cancel the GOP Victory Parties. Your purchases will help create more jobs.

well thats it then......Nate Silver called it......might as well stop the voting....

Why? Zombie still has a one in five chance of winning.

 

[JimH52]

Don't give a fuck what he thinks.

Yes, we know. But do enjoy your weekend! Wednesday is going to be a tough day...

 

[Dick Tuck]

Don't give a fuck what he thinks.

Ah but if it was gallup or ras we would have 20 threads on that shit because you would care then.....

Cherry pickers.

That's what's cool about Nate. He uses past performance of various pollsters to weigh the results. He was the only pollster who put Indiana in the toss up in 2008.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Why doesnt he just bump it up to 100 percent. His methodologies have contradicting inverse relationships that vary widely. But, statisticians have an out. When he loses he can easily point to that 13 percent without having to be accountable. What a deal.

 

[Katzndogz]

It's a good thing democrats have Nate Silver. They got nothing else.

 

[Billo_Really]

Nate Silver is a God among pollsters and is never wrong.

 

[grunt11b]

Early voting polls show Romney above 50% in turnout compared to Obama. I'd say that Nate is another left wing hack moron.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Why doesnt he just bump it up to 100 percent. His methodologies have contradicting inverse relationships that vary widely. But, statisticians have an out. When he loses he can easily point to that 13 percent without having to be accountable. What a deal.

You haven't a clue about his methodology or his model. The base of his model is to weigh the various polls, based on their past accuracy. It's really that simple. There's no contradicting inverse relationship there.

 

[Billo_Really]

Early voting polls show Romney above 50% in turnout compared to Obama. I'd say that Nate is another left wing hack moron.

What you say is wrong!

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Friday’s polling should make it easy to discern why Mr. Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.

[These polls] represent powerful evidence against the idea that the race is a “tossup.” A tossup race isn’t likely to produce 19 leads for one candidate and one for the other — any more than a fair coin is likely to come up heads 19 times and tails just once in 20 tosses. (The probability of a fair coin doing so is about 1 chance in 50,000.)

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

The strong jobs data, the president’s adroit handling of the storm – according to New Jersey’s republican governor – and a faltering Romney campaign are clearly trending the numbers toward the president.

Given this data and evidence, it’s perfectly appropriate for democrats to expect Obama to be re-elected this Tuesday.

 

[EriktheRed]

Early voting polls show Romney above 50% in turnout compared to Obama. I'd say that Nate is another left wing hack moron.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Don't give a fuck what he thinks.

Yes, we know. But do enjoy your weekend! Wednesday is going to be a tough day...

Wednesday will be just like the Wednesday the week before idiot. Nothing in our individual lives will change but our level of hope.

That is as simple and honest as it gets.

 

[Katzndogz]

obama's handling of the storm turns out to be a photo op where Janet Napolitano congratulated him on his adroit handling of the storm. Meanwhile there is no aid and no help. Right about now, Governor Christie should be realizing that obama used him for a photo op and planned all along to ignore him. Christie praised obama for the same reason obama got the Nobel Peace Prize. On what he said he was going to do.