Bill Nye reveals the science behind warm winter weather

A paper they put out:
link: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/papers/vose-etal2003.pdf
excerpt:
1. Introduction
[2] The U.S. Historical Climatology Network (HCN)
database [Easterling et al., 1996] is commonly used to
quantify climate change because it contains adjustments
that account for historical variations in observation time
[Karl et al., 1986], station location/instrumentation [Karl
and Williams, 1987], and population growth [Karl et al.,
1988]. In a comparative analysis of the conterminous
United States, Balling and Idso [2002] determined that
adjusted HCN temperature trends for the past 30 years were
slightly more positive than those derived from other datasets
[e.g., Jones, 1994; Christy et al., 2000]. This led to the
hypothesis that the HCN contained a ‘‘spurious’’ warming
that likely resulted from the adjustments for historical
variations in observation time. Given this supposition, the
purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the reliability of the
adjustments for this ‘‘time of observation’’ bias in HCN

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/papers/vose-etal2003.pdf - the SAME paper from which jc extracted the above comment

"The results indicate that HCN station history information is reasonably complete and that the bias adjustment models have low residual errors. In short, the time of observation bias adjustments in HCN appear to be robust."


And, just to be accurate, this paper was written by employees of NCDC, not NASA or NOAA. And, of course, it nowhere constitutes a statement that anyone's data is "fake"
 
A paper they put out:
link: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/papers/vose-etal2003.pdf
excerpt:
1. Introduction
[2] The U.S. Historical Climatology Network (HCN)
database [Easterling et al., 1996] is commonly used to
quantify climate change because it contains adjustments
that account for historical variations in observation time
[Karl et al., 1986], station location/instrumentation [Karl
and Williams, 1987], and population growth [Karl et al.,
1988]. In a comparative analysis of the conterminous
United States, Balling and Idso [2002] determined that
adjusted HCN temperature trends for the past 30 years were
slightly more positive than those derived from other datasets
[e.g., Jones, 1994; Christy et al., 2000]. This led to the
hypothesis that the HCN contained a ‘‘spurious’’ warming
that likely resulted from the adjustments for historical
variations in observation time. Given this supposition, the
purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the reliability of the
adjustments for this ‘‘time of observation’’ bias in HCN

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/papers/vose-etal2003.pdf - the SAME paper from which jc extracted the above comment

"The results indicate that HCN station history information is reasonably complete and that the bias adjustment models have low residual errors. In short, the time of observation bias adjustments in HCN appear to be robust."


And, just to be accurate, this paper was written by employees of NCDC, not NASA or NOAA. And, of course, it nowhere constitutes a statement that anyone's data is "fake"
well make believe is make believe. No matter how you feel you should spin it. Made up is just that, made up. or in the perception of many faked.
 
We have clearly demonstrated, you and I, that your claim that NASA and NOAA had "admitted" their data was "fake" was completely false. Thank you for your cooperation in this matter.
 
We have clearly demonstrated, you and I, that your claim that NASA and NOAA had "admitted" their data was "fake" was completely false. Thank you for your cooperation in this matter.
Clear as mud
 
I succeeded in showing your statement false because it's not difficult to defend the truth. It gets muddy when you move away.
 
That NASA and NOAA had made a statement that their data were "fake". Is something preventing you from scrolling back a few posts and finding stuff like that for yourself, or are you just babbling to kill time and take up space?
 
That NASA and NOAA had made a statement that their data were "fake". Is something preventing you from scrolling back a few posts and finding stuff like that for yourself, or are you just babbling to kill time and take up space?
Well I proved that. No need to go back.
 
A CNN article by Adam Sobel, atmospheric scientist at Lamont-Doherty, on the "freakishly warm December" in the north east.

Why the freakishly warm December? (Opinion) - CNN.com

Adam Sobel, a professor at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Fu Foundation School of Engineering and Applied Science, is an atmospheric scientist who studies extreme events and the risks they pose to human society. Sobel is the author of "Storm Surge," a book about Superstorm Sandy. Follow him on Twitter: @profadamsobel. The opinions expressed are his own.

(CNN)The eastern U.S. is warm. Really, really warm. In Central Park, the daytime high on Christmas Eve was 71 degrees Fahrenheit. That's 8 degrees over the previous record for the day.

Similar records are being set all over the east. And it hasn't just been a couple days of warm weather; it's been weeks. Record high temperatures have been set by the thousands during December so far, and the month isn't over yet. The average December temperature in New York Citymay reach 14 degrees above average by the end of the month, breaking the previous record, set in 1932, by a couple of degrees.

And it's not just the heat, it's the humidity. The warm air is being delivered by southerly winds coming straight from the tropics, and they carry the tropical moisture with them also. The specific humidity -- the total amount of water vapor in the air - is breaking records just like the temperature is. The warmth and mugginess are off the charts, separately and together.

Because it's December, this is just a curiosity, a story about weird weather. If these deviations from average were to happen in the summer, though, and they were to last as long as they have over as widespread an area as they have, it would be a heat wave big enough to cause a major national disaster. There would be many deaths, and most likely blackouts and other infrastructure failures.

Sooner or later, that will happen. So it's worth understanding what is going on. What is causing this extreme weather event?

No weather event has a unique cause. Every weather event, this one included, has multiple factors that conspire to make it what it is.

The atmosphere is always twisting and turning around, chaotically, with a mind of its own. Any truly extreme event results in large part from that effectively random behavior. For that reason, the specifics of individual extreme events are not predictable far ahead of time -- weather forecasting, which is the science of predicting this chaotic component, generally doesn't work for periods beyond a couple of weeks.

But the climate sets the stage, pushing things in one direction or another and influencing the odds that an extreme event of a given type will occur.

By making the whole planet warmer, human emissions of greenhouse gases increase the odds of a warm event like this one -- or its more dangerous hypothetical summer counterpart. If we define the event by specifying a fixed threshold -- some number of degrees above average for some number of days, say -- the global warming that we've already had makes that threshold more likely to be crossed.

Or we can look at it another way: If the specific weather situation -- the configuration of the high and low pressure systems, the jet stream, and so forth -- were to have been in the the same state 200 years ago as today, it would have still been warm, but it wouldn't have been quite as warm as today.

Besides human influence, the climate also fluctuates naturally. The most important natural fluctuation this winter is El Niño, a change in the state of both the ocean and the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific that comes every few years or so. The coming and going of El Nino events happens on a pace much faster than that of human-induced climate change, but still much slower and steadier than the day-to-day weather, so it makes sense to think of it as another factor gently nudging the weather in one direction.

In addition to human-induced climate change, the big El Niño currently in place is very likely a significant factor in the present eastern warmth, because of the way it pushes the jet stream around. That's why a warm December was predicted well ahead of time (though not to the extreme that has happened); we knew through the fall that the El Niño would still be in place now, and what its effects on the U.S. tend to be.

El Niño doesn't drive the bus by itself any more than global warming does. There's still a lot of wiggle room for the atmosphere to do its own thing. That's very apparent in the Pacific Northwest, where I am now. Normally an El Niño makes it dry here, but instead it's been the rainiest December in history. So the atmosphere's own variability must be important as well. Each of these factors is present, and likely playing some role in the specific event we see transpiring now.

But just saying that every possible cause matters to an extreme weather event isn't very satisfying. Which cause matters the most, by how much and in what sense? Can we measure these various influences on the weather with numbers?

In principle, we can. There is now a growing scientific research area that attempts to do this called "extreme event attribution." Attribution studies try to quantify the influence of specific causes (including, but not limited to human-induced climate change) on some individual weather events, rather than just the larger patterns that climate science has historically been about. The National Academy of Sciences is currently performing a study on this relatively new and rapidly evolving field. (Full disclosure: I'm on the committee that is performing the study.)

This warm event is still ongoing, so attribution studies haven't been done on it yet. But they will come. The science is reaching the point where we can make real scientific statements about the factors influencing individual weather events like this one, with numbers and statistical confidence intervals and multiple lines of evidence.

So is the current eastern warmth due to human-induced climate change? How about the massive El Niño event that is currently underway in the tropical Pacific? Or is it just an extreme random fluctuation of the weather?

Detailed answers have to await the research to be done. But the basic, general answer, glib but likely true, is: Yes.
Your article is blaming man for cyclical El Niño warming... Credibility of this man is zero bordering on a negative reading..

After further reading he has no credibility as his basis is the IPCC modeling that has failed every empirical review... OPP"s.. Another Crick massive FAIL!
 
NOAA and NASA have never said their data was "fake". That would make your statement a lie and you a liar.
here,

C3: "Science" By Lubchenco's NOAA: Fake Global Warming By Changing Historical Temperature Data

Excerpt:

Surprise! That exact politically-correct green agenda is robustly being carried out by NOAA's "scientists" as seen below.


The above record of temperature change over the four months since July 2011, by NOAA & NCDC personnel, is definitely not random. There is a significant man-made pattern to the cooling and warming changes.

EXCELLENT FIND!

The man made component is ADJUSTMENTS...
 
Your article is blaming man for cyclical El Niño warming.

I suggest you read it again, because it clearly is not.

.. Credibility of this man is zero bordering on a negative reading..

Adam Sobel, Professor
Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Professor of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics
vs
Poster Billy Bob
Ex-police officer who Might have a mail-order certificate in meteorology

Hmm...

After further reading he has no credibility as his basis is the IPCC modeling that has failed every empirical review... OPP"s.. Another Crick massive FAIL!

He has infinitely more credibility than you will ever have. The IPCC has done no modeling. The models they've included in their assessment reports have not failed. But, as I have pointed out repeatedly here, NO ONE has ever produced a working model that can hindcast the 20th century without making use of AGW. So, it would be YOUR models that have failed.
 
Your article is blaming man for cyclical El Niño warming.

I suggest you read it again, because it clearly is not.

.. Credibility of this man is zero bordering on a negative reading..

Adam Sobel, Professor
Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Professor of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics
vs
Poster Billy Bob
Ex-police officer who Might have a mail-order certificate in meteorology

Hmm...

After further reading he has no credibility as his basis is the IPCC modeling that has failed every empirical review... OPP"s.. Another Crick massive FAIL!

He has infinitely more credibility than you will ever have. The IPCC has done no modeling. The models they've included in their assessment reports have not failed. But, as I have pointed out repeatedly here, NO ONE has ever produced a working model that can hindcast the 20th century without making use of AGW. So, it would be YOUR models that have failed.
The IPCC has done no modeling.
from the AR5 summary report:

Excerpt:
"Assessment Box SPM.1 | Human Interference with the Climate System
Human influence on the climate system is clear. Yet determining whether such influence constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference” in the words of Article 2 of the UNFCCC involves both risk assessment and value judgments. This report assesses risks across contexts and through time, providing a basis for judgments about the level of climate change at which risks become dangerous."

So they know nothing. Models fail? well put one up from the report that was correct.
 
Bill Nye the Science Guy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

During its run, Bill Nye the Science Guy was nominated for 23 Emmy Awards, winning nineteen.[7]

Daytime Emmy Awards

Ah well, looks like Bill does something right.

Yet he had to fake the results of his AGW Experiment. Go figure
 
Well, yes, the world's economic model is changing as we post. We, China, and most other nations are changing from fossil fuel electrical generation to renewables. And, oddly enough, the state leading the way in solar and wind is that ultra-liberal state of Texas. Irony at it's best.

Have you checked the price of oil lately?????? You think these alternatives are competitive??????
 
Bill Nye the Science Guy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

During its run, Bill Nye the Science Guy was nominated for 23 Emmy Awards, winning nineteen.[7]

Daytime Emmy Awards

Ah well, looks like Bill does something right.

Yet he had to fake the results of his AGW Experiment. Go figure
every experiment I've seen the results are never pro CO2 and the dude doing the experiment has to lie and say that the thermometer showed a higher value than what the camera showed. everyone. I'll see if I can find the one I posted up five months ago. It was hilarious.
 
Bill Nye the Science Guy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

During its run, Bill Nye the Science Guy was nominated for 23 Emmy Awards, winning nineteen.[7]

Daytime Emmy Awards

Ah well, looks like Bill does something right.

Yet he had to fake the results of his AGW Experiment. Go figure
every experiment I've seen the results are never pro CO2 and the dude doing the experiment has to lie and say that the thermometer showed a higher value than what the camera showed. everyone. I'll see if I can find the one I posted up five months ago. It was hilarious.

You're the first person I've ever known that is "pro CO2".. I didn't know that chemical compounds had fan clubs...
 
Bill Nye the Science Guy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

During its run, Bill Nye the Science Guy was nominated for 23 Emmy Awards, winning nineteen.[7]

Daytime Emmy Awards

Ah well, looks like Bill does something right.

Yet he had to fake the results of his AGW Experiment. Go figure
every experiment I've seen the results are never pro CO2 and the dude doing the experiment has to lie and say that the thermometer showed a higher value than what the camera showed. everyone. I'll see if I can find the one I posted up five months ago. It was hilarious.

You're the first person I've ever known that is "pro CO2".. I didn't know that chemical compounds had fan clubs...
Funny, how many threads do you supposed have CO2 subject matter in this forum? I give two shits about CO2, except when they tell me I can't breath unless I pay money to do so. Or I can't heat my home without forking out a few more bills. Pro CO2 are warmers, they count on it for funding for fake reports on what it does to our planet. Funny stuff pro CO2'ers
 
Bill Nye the Science Guy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

During its run, Bill Nye the Science Guy was nominated for 23 Emmy Awards, winning nineteen.[7]

Daytime Emmy Awards

Ah well, looks like Bill does something right.

Yet he had to fake the results of his AGW Experiment. Go figure
every experiment I've seen the results are never pro CO2 and the dude doing the experiment has to lie and say that the thermometer showed a higher value than what the camera showed. everyone. I'll see if I can find the one I posted up five months ago. It was hilarious.

You're the first person I've ever known that is "pro CO2".. I didn't know that chemical compounds had fan clubs...
Funny, how many threads do you supposed have CO2 subject matter in this forum? I give two shits about CO2, except when they tell me I can't breath unless I pay money to do so. Or I can't heat my home without forking out a few more bills. Pro CO2 are warmers, they count on it for funding for fake reports on what it does to our planet. Funny stuff pro CO2'ers

Oh.. You mean the CO2 CONS !! Got it...
 

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