- Feb 22, 2017
- 109,455
- 38,106
- 2,290
As soon as you answer why there's no shootings at 99.996% of public schools - you'd see why your inference is bad.OMG. How about a few links to explain why you think the numbers are "way off". I have links documenting my posts and numbers:We basically disagree on statistical inference vs statistical significance. I'm not looking at the probability of a school shooting, but at the statistical makeup of the 200 school shootings. What is the probability of a shooting at a public school vs a private/Catholic school, even correcting for the numerical difference in schools.
IMHO 200 school shootings, all at public schools, when 71% of schools are public, and 29% private/Catholic is statistically significant.
I don't know why there haven''t been school shootings at private/Catholic schools. Why are nearly all school shooters young white males? Is it mental illness? Would profiling help? Is it related to their home life? Financial situation? Social life? Religious attitude, etc.
The only statistical significance is that your numbers are WAY off!
https://www.quora.com/How-many-high-schools-are-there-in-the-US
"According to the latest research made in 2001, there are about 26,407 public secondary schools, and 10,693 private secondary schools in the USA."
So that's about 37,000 high schools, with 10,693/37,000 = 29% private/Catholic. Other links show about 53% of private schools are Catholic
Shootings happen at more than just secondary schools. Why limit your count to them?
It seemed simpler and more statistically accurate to compare HS shootings. Public vs private/Catholic. The link in the OP says that there were zero shootings at Catholic schools. That seemed significant to me. So I created the thread to discuss. It gets complicated due to elementary schools, middle schools, secondary schools, and colleges. If you look at High Schools there are 29% private/Catholic. If you look at students, 10% are private+Catholic and about 5% are Catholic. My math says that for 200 shootings, and 10% of the kids go to private/Catholic schools, 20 or so shootings should have happened at private/Catholic schools, yet there were zero. Why is that?
What are all of those public schools doing successfully?
This is the key. When something happens that rarely you cannot blame the overall system.